NexusFi: Find Your Edge


Home Menu

 





EURUSD M6E/6E Euro


Discussion in Currencies

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one Big Mike with 402 posts (490 thanks)
    2. looks_two Cashish with 192 posts (162 thanks)
    3. looks_3 terratec with 117 posts (213 thanks)
    4. looks_4 rassi with 113 posts (110 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one glennts with 1.9 thanks per post
    2. looks_two terratec with 1.8 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 Big Mike with 1.2 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 Cashish with 0.8 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 882,549 views
    2. thumb_up 3,050 thanks given
    3. group 204 followers
    1. forum 2,612 posts
    2. attach_file 1,255 attachments




 
Search this Thread

EURUSD M6E/6E Euro

  #1101 (permalink)
 
Surly's Avatar
 Surly 
denver, colorado
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT
Trading: ZS
Posts: 704 since Mar 2011
Thanks Given: 628
Thanks Received: 1,263


trendisyourfriend View Post
If HL's are still made then you can only assume the trend is intact and the higher probability move is still to the upside. As simple as that.

Thanks. My approach is to try to understand the underlying dynamics of the price movement. I want to understand how the market gets moved and what the real life events are that move price. It may be a fool's errand - it may, in fact, be better to not try to understand anything and just keep buying pullbacks until it stops working - but my opinion is that to gain a durable edge one must strive to have some insight into the actuality of "why" a trade worked or "why" it didn't. Thus my question about opinions of what happened ...

Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert
Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on NexusFi?
Futures True Range Report
The Elite Circle
New Micros: Ultra 10-Year & Ultra T-Bond -- Live Now
Treasury Notes and Bonds
Are there any eval firms that allow you to sink to your …
Traders Hideout
Deepmoney LLM
Elite Quantitative GenAI/LLM
NexusFi Journal Challenge - April 2024
Feedback and Announcements
 
Best Threads (Most Thanked)
in the last 7 days on NexusFi
Get funded firms 2023/2024 - Any recommendations or word …
59 thanks
Funded Trader platforms
38 thanks
NexusFi site changelog and issues/problem reporting
26 thanks
GFIs1 1 DAX trade per day journal
19 thanks
The Program
18 thanks
  #1102 (permalink)
 
Trafford's Avatar
 Trafford 
London, England
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja
Broker: Mirus Futures/Zen-Fire
Trading: EUR
Posts: 337 since Sep 2010
Thanks Given: 378
Thanks Received: 229


Surly View Post
Thanks. My approach is to try to understand the underlying dynamics of the price movement. I want to understand how the market gets moved and what the real life events are that move price. It may be a fool's errand - it may, in fact, be better to not try to understand anything and just keep buying pullbacks until it stops working - but my opinion is that to gain a durable edge one must strive to have some insight into the actuality of "why" a trade worked or "why" it didn't. Thus my question about opinions of what happened ...

I do not know your timeframe and not sure if you are a scapler but when I look at a chart like the one attached I am asking myself some questions: do I want to be a buyer, and if so why and where, and then what would invalidate that reasonging. In the case of being on sell side. I am asking why do I want to be a seller, what on my longer timeframe chart tells me theri is evidence of rejection. Unless I can give solid evidence to that fact I am sitting on my hands as I know I am my worst enemy.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	EU240M.png
Views:	255
Size:	47.1 KB
ID:	63754  
Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #1103 (permalink)
 
monpere's Avatar
 monpere 
Bala, PA, USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: Mirus, IB
Trading: SPY, Oil, Euro
Posts: 1,854 since Jul 2010
Thanks Given: 300
Thanks Received: 3,371



Surly View Post
Thanks. My approach is to try to understand the underlying dynamics of the price movement. I want to understand how the market gets moved and what the real life events are that move price. It may be a fool's errand - it may, in fact, be better to not try to understand anything and just keep buying pullbacks until it stops working - but my opinion is that to gain a durable edge one must strive to have some insight into the actuality of "why" a trade worked or "why" it didn't. Thus my question about opinions of what happened ...

There are several schools of thoughts on this. Those who continually analyze the market to find opportunities and determine a reason to enter or stay out of the market, and those who look for methodical pre-defined patterns to enter the market. You should tread carefully, as I believe needing to always have a reason for why the market moved from A to B, or needing a reason for why a trade worked of failed, may lead to some psychological traps. This may be a sign that you need to be right about the market. You need to be careful not to get in that frame of mind. What is important is that when you are right, you make more money then you lose, when you are wrong overall. Plenty of traders are successful, even though they are wrong more times then they are right.

Personally, beyond basic market fundamentals, I think the reasons why a market does what it does is immaterial to me. What is important, is that it does what it does cyclically, continually, and repeatedly, with a signature that can recognize, measure and act upon. I let the pundits on CNBC pontificate as to the reasons why.

Reply With Quote
  #1104 (permalink)
 
trendisyourfriend's Avatar
 trendisyourfriend 
Quebec Canada
Market Wizard
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: AMP/CQG
Trading: ES, NQ, YM
Frequency: Daily
Duration: Minutes
Posts: 4,527 since Oct 2009
Thanks Given: 4,171
Thanks Received: 6,018


Surly View Post
Thanks. My approach is to try to understand the underlying dynamics of the price movement. I want to understand how the market gets moved and what the real life events are that move price. It may be a fool's errand - it may, in fact, be better to not try to understand anything and just keep buying pullbacks until it stops working - but my opinion is that to gain a durable edge one must strive to have some insight into the actuality of "why" a trade worked or "why" it didn't. Thus my question about opinions of what happened ...

Don't look for a reason in technical or fundamental analysis or outside events as price is not a true representation of these things. Rather it is a representation of the sentiment of the crowd which is based upon flawed analysis of market information and irrational decisions. Price movement is based on psychology. This is where you'll find the actuality of "why" a trade worked or "why" it didn't. If you can spot on a chart where group of traders will be under stress or feel desperation or some sense of urgency to act then you may find "why" a trade worked or "why" it didn't.

"The most effective analysis is not analysis of price, but rather analysis of trader decisions" - Lance Begg

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #1105 (permalink)
 
Cashish's Avatar
 Cashish 
Miami FL USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ensign 10, NT7 DOM
Broker: IB, IQ
Trading: Currency Futures
Posts: 802 since May 2011
Thanks Given: 811
Thanks Received: 2,102


Surly View Post
I shorted the euro (my market is molasses today - soy) up here. I noticed an offer of 1200 cars at 3470 - I'm curious if any of you euro guys see this sort of thing where there's a giant order that sticks around and whether if affects the market at all. Normally I ignore the order sizes in the DOM but when I see something that big that sticks around when price approaches it, I take notice.

Anyway - I may get blown out here but this immediate move does seem to be running out of steam...

@Surly I don't know what you have for a trading station (data feeds, charting & analytic programs), but at the end of the day (not sure of exact time) we can compare what we saw, or what we thought we saw, with what really happened by looking at the T&S (time & sales) Report posted on the CME Website.

Here's a link to the Euro T&S Page, EUR / USD

As I write this post the CME site seems to be a little quirky, good luck.

Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #1106 (permalink)
 
rassi's Avatar
 rassi 
the congo
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: North sea oil rig
Trading: Cl
Posts: 927 since Jun 2009
Thanks Given: 1,563
Thanks Received: 1,199


Cashish View Post
@Surly I don't know what you have for a trading station (data feeds, charting & analytic programs), but at the end of the day (not sure of exact time) we can compare what we saw, or what we thought we saw, with what really happened by looking at the T&S (time & sales) Report posted on the CME Website.

Here's a link to the Euro T&S Page, EUR / USD

As I write this post the CME site seems to be a little quirky, good luck.

Yes, they are having issues post hack by anonymous group. V for vendetta

Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #1107 (permalink)
 
rassi's Avatar
 rassi 
the congo
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: North sea oil rig
Trading: Cl
Posts: 927 since Jun 2009
Thanks Given: 1,563
Thanks Received: 1,199


Surly View Post
Thanks. My approach is to try to understand the underlying dynamics of the price movement. I want to understand how the market gets moved and what the real life events are that move price. It may be a fool's errand - it may, in fact, be better to not try to understand anything and just keep buying pullbacks until it stops working - but my opinion is that to gain a durable edge one must strive to have some insight into the actuality of "why" a trade worked or "why" it didn't. Thus my question about opinions of what happened ...

Well here we are again, what moves prices and why....then comes the second part, does it matter!?

The reality is this, the 6e is tied to the spot fx eur-usd. This spot Market is used by institutions for many reasons. The least of these for speculative directional trade. Ultimately size wins out and the Market follows.

The second part of the question is down to a traders individual mindset. Personally I could not trade off the back of something that I could not understand or rationalise. Those that can exploit technical analasis anomalies for the period of time that they are working in the Market will almost certainly not give two hoots about the why.

Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #1108 (permalink)
 
Cashish's Avatar
 Cashish 
Miami FL USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ensign 10, NT7 DOM
Broker: IB, IQ
Trading: Currency Futures
Posts: 802 since May 2011
Thanks Given: 811
Thanks Received: 2,102

Hi fellas, Good Monday morning to you.

I've been shorting this thing all night, so I've sent in a "long" soldier. I think this market is going to turn here, and not test 1.3350. I'm long from the Buy Number with a stop (right now) at 1.3358 (come and get me!!)

This first chart is a volume profile that includes Friday's price movements. If this market gets some legs under it I could see it clawing it's way back to 1.3450. I can't sit here much longer so (I want to) take profit at 1.3403




This chart is the VP from the Sunday evening open.


Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #1109 (permalink)
 supermht 
Naperville IL
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: ninjatrader
Broker: NT broker
Trading: NQ ES 6E GC CL
Posts: 962 since Feb 2010
Thanks Given: 1,189
Thanks Received: 661

Error retrieving image, please check URL again (matched: "")

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #1110 (permalink)
 
Cashish's Avatar
 Cashish 
Miami FL USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ensign 10, NT7 DOM
Broker: IB, IQ
Trading: Currency Futures
Posts: 802 since May 2011
Thanks Given: 811
Thanks Received: 2,102


That POC shift to the downside gave me a little concern, then it ticked up and played along with me.

I'm done and happy


Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote




Last Updated on January 27, 2024


© 2024 NexusFi™, s.a., All Rights Reserved.
Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama City, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada)
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
About Us - Contact Us - Site Rules, Acceptable Use, and Terms and Conditions - Privacy Policy - Downloads - Top
no new posts