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OK - nice thread. I'll play. This is for spot forex.
still in a downward channel....although 100sma crossed 200sma on 1hr...significant? This was a result of the Feds intervention. Retraced about half of that now though.
Daily big picture cycles. 1-1200sma wave. Thick blue/white are 100/200 sma
Zoom to local daily. Add trendlines to continue lines from folds in wave. A lot of resistance to up moves...anything can happen here but just something to note. Fed did not push price up thru folds.
Local hourly (with color) Shows some resistance - 3 folds, a top channel trendline and 100sma. Bounded by 1.3473 and 1.3359. Folds in middle have flattened out and outsides have both wedged in. Indicating heading for a balance in price courtesy of the Fed. If wedge pattern plays out we may end in a balance point around 1.3550 ...before crashing Which on the daily is right where that blue fold is... funny huh?
“Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind.” - Dr. Seuss
attached is what happen on NFP on friday, The first chart was the pre-trade analysis and the 2nd chart is the actual trades taken (sold 13456 take profit 13371)
The equilibrium 13417 - 13484 - 13551 has completed and price has moved down.
Price should be roaming within the yellow dotted rectangle drawn on the 2nd chart on Monday next week as long as there are no adverse events coming out for EURO.
People please! Throw enough stuff on a chart, something is bound to co-incidentally reverse where another thing happens to be. When that happens you are a hero, the other 10 times it doesn't happen, no one mentions it. Trading is not about predicting the markets. It is about trying to take advantage of perceived pattern repetition based on the numerically significant statistical historical behavior and observed expectancy of those patterns, using appropriate money management based on that data. (That was a mouthful!) Trying to predict the markets will lead the majority of those following that approach to the poor house.
I stopped banging my head on that wall just a few months ago. I mean to each his own, but to me the majority of "analysis" seems to miss the point. I think to post a template thread and then I think again when I see what usually happens to the "originator". I was just forming up some charts to do that when I read your post here. Thank you for the sharp elbow to the ribs.
uuuummmm yes it is.... and your next statement says that
It is about trying to take advantage of perceived pattern repetition based on the numerically significant statistical historical behavior and observed expectancy of those patterns, using appropriate money management based on that data.
No kidding... now look closer at the wave picture while thinking about what you said - monpere
“Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind.” - Dr. Seuss
My point is, for me to put any weight to that picture, you have to show 500 charts (historical) with that wave and price action, and show me that if I took all 500 trades (numerically significant), 350 out of those 500 (statistical) would have made money based on my money management. Or, taking all 500 of those trades, I would have only 100 winners but based on my money management I would have still made more money then I lost on the other 400 losers (expectancy).
But if you show me those 500 occurrences and tell me you could have predicted which ones were going to work and which ones were not, that is a pipe dream, that most traders come to realize sooner or later. Now, when you show me a couple of cherry picked pictures that happen to work, I say even the clock on the wall that doesn't work is right twice a day. I'm not saying the method in the picture works or not, I'm just saying, most likely it cannot predict the market. That is all I see in this thread, people trying to predict the market. But if you are convinced convinced otherwise, then cool, I would not debate any method that increases the amount in anyone's trading account.
wldman
Please post serious content...that's how we all learn and don't worry about people who don't believe in your method. If it works for you then I for one would like to see it.
Next time you get mad about someone else's internet post....
Let me google that for you (
monpere
then cool, I would not debate any method that increases the amount in anyone's trading account.
OK - roger that.
The simple moving average wave is a very simple concept. really no different that using candlesticks or any other basic indicator to try and smooth price or find significant levels to trade off of. I make money off it. You may not. meaningless either way.
...you have to show 500 charts (historical)
you are asking for a lot of work and my mom is bringing supper down to the basement for me just now so I don't have time. Plus Mike would kill me for eating up his bandwith.
no offense monpere
you are right - react don't predict
I just see this as a share space not a prove space.
“Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind.” - Dr. Seuss
to post the kind of value that could help people. Sharkey tried it. CJbooth tried it. Read how those posts went down and then check that last post of yours.
I'm sure other guys have tried to contribute value for the value they find here too. But there is no way that I'm going to lay myself out exposed for the detractors or the dierespectful. The command, send me your template and all your settings is like asking a guy if he wants to film you sleeping with his wife. I also don't suffer fools with much grace, so the "will this work" on a 63 tick or a renko double secret bar type or the "have I tried" questions would drive me crazy.
The better way for me will be to find individuals that are hardworking and sincere and try to help them individually.
A collaborative with like minded guys that have varied skill sets is like finding a pink unicorn it seems.
There is some truth in the words you write but I would like to say that futures.io (formerly BMT) is place where at least you have a good chance of meeting other seriuos traders unlike most of the other sites that are full of clowns and guttersnipes. I think here you do get across to others that will legitimately benefit from your posts and I wouldn't write the whole place off.
Which on the daily is right where that blue fold is... funny huh?
