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EURUSD 6E Euro
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EURUSD 6E Euro

  #971 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Fat Tails View Post
$EURUSD has retraced 38.2% of the leg down. Did not test the lows after the trendline break, which indicates a lack of sellers.

If it breaks above 1.3300, it should continue at least until the 50% retracement line, which is at 1.3436.

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now, this is a chart.

this is exactly what I'm looking for. and I'm pretty sure we are not the only ones looking at the exact same thing.

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  #972 (permalink)
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Silvester17 View Post
now, this is a chart.

this is exactly what I'm looking for. and I'm pretty sure we are not the only ones looking at the exact same thing.

I have also often observed that price action stops at the Fibonacci line, then retraces and then temporarily breaks it to collect the stops before it retraces. We currenctly can observe a potential 2B pattern in the making, which is not yet completed nor valid.

Technically there could be a retest of the lows, which is one possible scenario. I am just bullish, as I observed a blatant lack of sellers, or alternatively lots of traders covering their shorts.

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  #973 (permalink)
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For what is worth, earlier this week i had these three levels under my radar where a key change in supply/demand took place in the past. 1.3324 was one of them.

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Thanks to all, for the info given in this thread. It is not only making me a better trader, it is making me understand what is driving the markets .


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  #975 (permalink)
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For those of us who don't mind going against the grain, don't want to be restricted to vertical movement for trading opportunities, and have no problems with squiggly lines on a chart. Oh, and who also don't care greatly about continual speculative market analysis... as much fun as that is to read
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EURUSD 6E Euro-euro.jpg   EURUSD 6E Euro-euro1.jpg  

Last edited by monpere; February 9th, 2012 at 07:59 PM.
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  #976 (permalink)
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I would not consider this a failed breakout just yet. This could actually be a failed failure, which will find support here at the ascending triangle area of 1.3200, then continue the move higher to 3500 area.

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If the 3200 area does fail to hold and the breakout does fail, a move to 3000-3050 seems likely.

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There was a bearish Butterfly preceding today's price action. It is not exactly the ideal geometry that you would expect, but anyhow I do not believe in any sacred ratios. The Butterfly pattern as bearish indicator is only valid after an uptrend, it is a valid indication here.

You can also view it as a consolidation with a failed breakout to the upside.

On the 30 min chart there is a widening triangle. Together with the trend inversion - detected by comparing the prior session's VWAPs - and the VWAP bands of the current day, the (ETH) floor pivot level S2 looks like the ideal entry setup for a long position.

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Take into Account Flight to Safety

You need to have a look at the news coming from Greece though, as the market is very nervous today.

All commodities are read, index futures and currencies are read, the only thing that goes are bonds, the VIX and the US-Dollar. The question is just where that panic stops. There is Fib support below S2 as well.

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Micro Analysis

Just a screenshot showing S/R, looking at pivots, fibonacci confluence, VWAP bands. This analysis is not valid on its own, but needs to be seen in the context of the larger time frame chart.


Positive Trend Expectation


The trend indication for today was originally positive. I measure that trend indication by comparing yesterday's (Thursday's) average price VWAP to the VWAP over the 3-day period from Tuesday to Thursday. Yesterday's VWAP was 1.3283, the 3-day VWAP was 1.3240.


Euro Slips Below Value

6E 03-12 then dived below value to about 1.3160. The positive trend expectation and the dive lead to an unstable situation, which cannot easily be sustained. The market is therefore confused, and typically a test of prior value is required. I use the term inversion for this situation, as current price is not above value where it should be in line with the prior trend, but it is below.

The concept can be compared to ideal order moving averages, which are used as a trend filter. This is no ideal order here, it is disorder.


Inversion Allows for Countertrend Trading When Market Is Overextended

Such an inversion allows for a countertrend trade, when the market is overextended. The question is how to catch the correct level. The answer is volatility. The floor pivot S2 is one daily range (yesterday's range) below the floor pivot. Alternatively it would be possible to use the average daily range deducted from today's high. That level has not yet been reached as it is between 1.3148 and 1.3152. Strong Fibonacci confluence is at 1.3155.

Adding up this information tells us that there is strong support located somewhere between 1.3148 and 1.3168, which is the zone delimited by the daily range target and the floor pivot level S2.


The Strong Support Zone Should Be Used as an Exit for Short Trades.

If you had a short position, when 6E 03-12 hit that support area it would have been the ideal exit. The London market is about to close.


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Great work, FT . Much appreciated ...


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