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EURUSD 6E Euro
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EURUSD 6E Euro

  #681 (permalink)
Sharpening mental edge
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rassi View Post
Markets heavily biased short right now, thats a pro gap up, wouldnt be supprised if we break some bear balls up to 3500 first. As you said mate, trade what you see


Big Mike View Post
Typically the way I think of it is like so:

- If everyone is bearish, yet the market is NOT going down, then time to be bullish
- If everyone is bearish, and market IS going down, then just hop on for the ride into oblivion

Likewise,

- If everyone is bullish, yet the market is NOT going up, then time to be bearish
- If everyone is bullish, and market IS going up, then just hop on for the ride into never-never-land

The tough ones are:

- You are bullish/bearish, but the Fed trades against you. The Fed also trades against common sense.

So I guess, always trade in the same direction as the Fed And rarely in the direction of common sense.

Mike

I think this comes down to ones views on what/why/how markets move or are moved.

Which leads on to, how can one identify this on a chart.

Heres a great excercise....take a chart, mark up the ideal place to buy and sell each swing. If anyone wants to we can then walk forward...

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  #682 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
Typically the way I think of it is like so:

- If everyone is bearish, yet the market is NOT going down, then time to be bullish
- If everyone is bearish, and market IS going down, then just hop on for the ride into oblivion

Likewise,

- If everyone is bullish, yet the market is NOT going up, then time to be bearish
- If everyone is bullish, and market IS going up, then just hop on for the ride into never-never-land

The tough ones are:

- You are bullish/bearish, but the Fed trades against you. The Fed also trades against common sense.

So I guess, always trade in the same direction as the Fed And rarely in the direction of common sense.

Mike

It goes in that direction, but more complex.

I am an active member of this behavioral site. Every week I have sentiment data for the important markets. One aspect is that buyers will step in when the sentiment is very bad. But as always in trading one argument is not enough. And it is different for institutional and private investors (they separate them). They use other arguments too, to complete the picture. I don't post an example as it is copyright material. But maybe they have a demo sample. It can be found on Bloomberg too.

It does work quite well. (Not for me. as I am a very short term trader). My benefit is that the data that I deliver every week are in a database (my sentix). So I can compare my sentiment charts over some years with the other traders. This gives me an alert when my bias is very different from the market, and I can think about it. (I am too bearish in gold). And I can learn something.

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  #683 (permalink)
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The bulls could see some good reasons to step in.

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  #684 (permalink)
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I am not a breakout trader. But this time...

After the Italian auction Euro was sitting below the 3372 resistance, while Italian 10y were falling and CHF dropped... They did wait... And they stopped after the move at the 3432 res.

P.S.: The reversal this morning by the tick at Monday open. Nice how things work (sometimes).

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EURUSD 6E Euro-11-11-29-0001.png  
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  #685 (permalink)
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Eric j View Post
The bulls are scarce . Im betting on the bears getting to 3000 unless some major bullishness goes down , then Ill just tag along with them .

big game hunter, you sure bagged some big profits on your last trade!

For the EURUSD to get to 1.3000, mkt would need to take out the Oct lows. lets see what develops, so far just non trending sideways price action.

Attached Thumbnails
EURUSD 6E Euro-nov-29.bmp  
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  #686 (permalink)
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This is not the large picture for the EURUSD, just an intermediate one.

My FOREX data has no historical volume information, and even if it had some volume information I would not trust it. For that reason I use the time-weighted average price (TWAP) instead of the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) for all FOREX instruments.

The chart below shows a rolling 5-day TWAP, which clearly declines, meaning that the trend is down. You can see how price snaps back, once it touches the 2 standard deviation bands and how price has retraced from the TWAP yesterday.

The ranges are auction ranges calculated from session bars. The chart loads one session bar for the Asian, the European and the US session each and uses that information to calculate the ranges. The ranges in turn are used to establish reversal bars, which should be seen in the context of the rolling TWAP.

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  #687 (permalink)
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cedar View Post
big game hunter, you sure bagged some big profits on your last trade!

For the EURUSD to get to 1.3000, mkt would need to take out the Oct lows. lets see what develops, so far just non trending sideways price action.

Cant open your attachment . Januarys low is 3000 area , I just ride along with the heavier traffic . Im in the south bound lane but if I see it getting heavier in the northbound Ill switch lanes .

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  #688 (permalink)
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Weeeeeeeeeee Fed, ECB, Central Banks of Canada, England, Japan, and Switzerland Announce Joint Action to Boost Liquidity, Addressing Pressures in Global Money Markets (story developing)

Mike

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News Headlines

Mike

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

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Source: News Headlines


Quoting 
The U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the central banks of Canada, England, Japan, and Switerzland Wednesday announced plans to coordinate their actions to boost liquidity in the global financial system.

The move is designed to ease strains in financial markets and and free up credit to households and businesses, the banks said in a joint statement.

These central banks will lower the pricing on the existing temporary U.S. dollar liquidity swap arrangements by half a percentage point so that the new rate will be the U.S. dollar overnight index swap, plus a half a percentage point. The new pricing will begin Dec. 5, 2011, and the swap arrangements will last until Feb. 1, 2013, the banks said.

In addition, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Swiss National Bank will continue to offer three-month tenders until further notice.

The central banks will also establish temporary bilateral liquidity swap arrangements, to provide additional liquidity to the markets should the need arise.

U.S. financial institutions currently don't have difficulty obtaining liquidity in short-term funding markets, the banks said. Should conditions deteriorate, however, the Fed said it has the tools to provide an effective liquidity backstop and stands prepared to use these tools as needed.

Mike

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

Need help?
1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first.
2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses.
3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make.
4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance.
5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers.
6)
Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.

If you want
to support our community, become an Elite Member.

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