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EURUSD 6E Euro
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EURUSD 6E Euro

  #631 (permalink)
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It's Not Over...

Last week we warned of the possibility for a massive short squeeze melt up purely due to the fact that the most leveragable driver of the stock market, the EURUSD, had barely seen a change in net short positions despite recurring noises that Europe would somehow pull a magic money tree out of the hat and all should be well. Well, they pulled it, and the EURUSD soared over 300 pips.
There is one problem, however: as the latest CFTC Commitment of Traders update indicates, there was barely any change in net non-spec EUR bearish bets which remained stubbornly fixed near the 2011 highs, at -76,512 contracts, just off the prior week's -77,720. Granted the USD net long dropped yet again, from 41,751 to 32,110 contracts. But the one all important driver for yet another potential squeeze has hardly budged. The one saving grace: this data is as of October 25, just before the massive rip started. As such it is possible that a substantial portion of these shorts has covered. Alas, we won't know until next Friday. By then, weak hand bears, spooked by merely the possibility of another ramp, will likely continue to cover into any even modest dip. It won't be until this total short position moves materially higher that the chance of any material downtick in the market will reappear.

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  #632 (permalink)
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Worth a read and remembering back.
Foreigners Losing Confidence in Holding US Treasury and Agency Debt - Casey Research

"Be right and sit tight." - Jesse Livermore
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  #633 (permalink)
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Heres my daily as of now . Got 100 and 200 sma here and thursdays high grazing 61.8% with an inside day friday . Next tuesdays a euro bank holiday and wed. has B.S. bernankes rate decision so should be interesting where we go from here .

*Edit - Almost forgot , NFP is friday so this might be a great week to stay on the sidelines or at least be extra cautious .

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Last edited by Eric j; October 30th, 2011 at 09:48 AM. Reason: NFP
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  #634 (permalink)
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Eric j View Post
Heres my daily as of now . Got 100 and 200 sma here and thursdays high grazing 61.8% with an inside day friday . Next tuesdays a euro bank holiday and wed. has B.S. bernankes rate decision so should be interesting where we go from here .

*Edit - Almost forgot , NFP is friday so this might be a great week to stay on the sidelines or at least be extra cautious .

2 fibs here on daily and weekly

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  #635 (permalink)
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Today USD stronger with a little help from BOJ.

Monthly: We have overhead resistance from TL and fib at 4377
Hourly: PB stopped at important 61.8 (3964) retracement level. This level is key.
This would be a good place for a BPC to the upside.

A lot depends on what BOJ intends to do and what the EZB is thinking about.
News ahead and the G20 coming up. This looks like a volatile week. Just what a trader needs.

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EURUSD 6E Euro-11-10-31-0000.png   EURUSD 6E Euro-11-10-31-0001.png  
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  #636 (permalink)
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Nice sell off today from Friday's painful slow day. This last run up looks like a blow off that took price to the 61.8 level from the high of 4925 which was also a high volume area.

Going forward, we could chop around up here a bit but I still think there's significant downside potential but it will come down to the news.

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EURUSD 6E Euro-2011-10-31-6e.jpg   EURUSD 6E Euro-2011-10-31-6e-volume.jpg   EURUSD 6E Euro-6e-12-11-5-min-10_31_2011.jpg  
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  #637 (permalink)
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Thank God I am a daytrayder!

Today Berlusconi and Sarkozy have a bank holiday. Two actors less in this Muppet Show.
The structure looks like we are in the third push down.

The 50% fib (3694) could be a target.
3650 as worst case key support

Expect news driven moves as politics will comment this announcement...

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EURUSD 6E Euro-11-11-01-0000.png  
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  #638 (permalink)
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Looks like the inside day on friday told the tale . The clustered 100,200 sma and the swipe at the 61.8 lent assurance .

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EURUSD 6E Euro-snapshot-505.png   EURUSD 6E Euro-snapshot-506.png  
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  #639 (permalink)
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The market stabilized a bit. But if any news...

3650 did hold.

123 on 60m

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  #640 (permalink)
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terratec View Post
The market stabilized a bit. But if any news...

3650 did hold.

123 on 60m

Looks like the 123 is confirmed . Im still looking at it from the short side . Big ben is on this afternoon so should shake it up a little .

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