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EURUSD 6E Euro
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EURUSD 6E Euro

  #621 (permalink)
Big game hunter
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Big Mike View Post
Here is my daily chart:

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All the news is bearish but yet we've made higher lows for five days now I think. That also could mean we are "due" for a retracement.

But I agree with @terratec, with the tight range and inside day, caution is probably the best course.

Mike


Nice call there BM . Looks like we still have a little upside till the 50% mark on the daily though . I see a confluence at the 50% with the 200 sma too . Maybe get short in earnest after 1 more push up into 4100ish .

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  #622 (permalink)
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Yesterday nice play of big boys. fBO to the upside on German voting (there was no surprice factor). Then fBO down at the strong 3812 level.Then up level by level.

sup 3812, 3950
res 4012, 4212

Busy trading day ahead...

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  #623 (permalink)
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Quite interesting news and movement on the EU after the debt deal.

This market has been buying the rumor for a long time, I wonder if today and tomorrow is sell the news correction, or if we just keep moving higher into oblivion as we stick our heads further in the sand.

Should be nice trading opportunities today and tomorrow

Mike

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  #624 (permalink)
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12345>4 or at least 3950 could be a possibility with an EW view.

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  #625 (permalink)
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CDS's and the Euro

What I'm trying to wrap my head around is the effect of the ISDA saying that a 50% haircut on greek bonds (at maturity???) *is not a default will have on the (200 trillion??) CDS market.

The EU has to avoid a Greek default at any cost because the euro is set up that all EU members can print bonds - so if Greece defaults they are defaulting on the euro.

But to the private debt holders about to take a 50% hit on Greek bonds that paid for unregulated insurance in the form of CDS's - get nothing for their hedge - how would that not cause a derivatives meltdown like when MBS failed.

If the CDS market crashes will bond holders of other sovereign debt (that can't possibly be repaid) react by selling because they can't hedge against losses? Junk bonds have been looking juicy to short.

A partial default is clearly a credit event whatever the ISDA wants to call it. If the CDS are to be honored I'm skeptical that most of the institutions issuing them have the capital to live up to the agreement. That would cause a market crash also - no?

"Be right and sit tight." - Jesse Livermore

Last edited by whatnext; October 27th, 2011 at 05:12 AM.
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  #626 (permalink)
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whatnext View Post
What I'm trying to wrap my head around is the effect of the ISDA saying that a 50% haircut on greek bonds (at maturity???) *is not a default will have on the (200 trillion??) CDS market.

The EU has to avoid a Greek default at any cost because the euro is set up that all EU members can print bonds - so if Greece defaults they are defaulting on the euro.

But to the private debt holders about to take a 50% hit on Greek bonds that paid for unregulated insurance in the form of CDS's - get nothing for their hedge - how would that not cause a derivatives meltdown like when MBS failed.

If the CDS market crashes will bond holders of other sovereign debt (that can't possibly be repaid) react by selling because they can't hedge against losses? Junk bonds have been looking juicy to short.

A partial default is clearly a credit event whatever the ISDA wants to call it. If the CDS are to be honored I'm skeptical that most of the institutions issuing them have the capital to live up to the agreement. That would cause a market crash also - no?

Everything you said makes sense and again is why I try and live by, Trade what is on the screen and not what you think. Which leads to second saying, Money is like a wh.....e it tends to go where it thinks it will be treated best and is often wrong.

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  #627 (permalink)
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terratec View Post
res 4012, 4212

Nice work

Mike

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  #628 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
Nice work

Mike

BOOOOOOM! some upmove sinces yesterdays lows. 14250 should cap it for now.

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  #629 (permalink)
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Levels worked like in a text book.

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  #630 (permalink)
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Overnight a mini PB to 4150. Not much for such a move.

Sup 4135, 4070 (the second is IMO important for the bulls)
Res 4248

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