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EURUSD 6E Euro
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EURUSD 6E Euro

  #531 (permalink)
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Source:
Why The Euro Is Going Much Lower, Or The Mother Of All Compression Trades | ZeroHedge


Quoting 
While the euro has been gloriously soaring higher over the past nine days, to much pomp and circumstance, with the move now 3.2% on the week - the biggest 5 day gain since the beginning of the year, and European bureaucrats overeager to point out that there is no way the currency could be on the verge of implosion if it is in fact soaring, a far more quiet and stealthy move has occurred in the spread between French and German bunds, which just hit an all time record. Why is this important? Because as the chart below shows, the correlation between the two had been for all intents and purposes 1.000... until 5 days ago when it bexome -1.000. Which is a clear signal that the move in the EUR is now purely technical and on last fumes from the ongoing short squeeze long discussed on Zero Hedge (watch for the CFTC COT update at 3pm today for the plunge in net EUR short exposure); it is also a loud signal for a compression trade between the France-German bund spread and the EUR, and as such we encourage readers with a capacity to enact said compression trade to boldly go where no weak EUR short covering hands have dared go in the past 5 days.

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  #532 (permalink)
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I'm very curious to see the COT today. This is a pure technical move for sure. In any event, we're almost to 1.39. There's a swing high at 1.3925 that will be a good test. If we get past 3970, we should get to around 1.40 +/- which is halfway back from May's high. Pretty exciting moves taking place here.

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  #533 (permalink)
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Let us wait for a trendline break first.

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  #534 (permalink)
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Two month ago we had EURCHF 1.01 and "fair" value should be 1.35.

Did it help my trading to know that huge difference? Maybe if I am a long term investor.
The only benefit I had as a trader was the fact that some day there would be an intervention and I could benefit if long... But in the meantime I had to fight with that long bias.

But an intervention for a stronger USD is not underway.

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  #535 (permalink)
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Source:
Long Overdue Short Covering In EUR Begins After 7 Consecutive Weeks Of Increasing Bearishness | ZeroHedge


Quoting 
As predicted earlier today, following one of the most epic moves higher in the EURUSD in the span of 9 short days, driven without a shadow of doubt by the multi-year bearish sentiment toward the European currency, which in turn courtesy of the massive leverage inherent in the FX market, has been used as the catalyst to drive the latest risk on rally across all asset classes, the net bearish exposure in the EUR has finally relented, and after 7 straight weeks of increases in bearishness, hitting a whopping -82,697 net non-commercial contracts in the week ended October 4, the subsequent week finally saw a significant unwind in shorts, up to -73,795. And since there are 3 trading days between the end of the compilation period and Friday EOD, we are confident that by now the actual net bearish count is in the -60k's if not lower. Notable, however, is that while Euro short bets were unwound, bullish bets on the dollar continued to risk, hitting 46,886, a 7th consecutive weekly increase. While the margin covering of the EUR is already priced in, the other question is when the USD megabullishness will relent. For now, it hasn't which will likely be used by market makers to squeeze out highly correlated accounts into even more short covering across equities.

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  #536 (permalink)
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COT in relation to price (from Dukascopy):

CoT Charts :: Dukascopy Bank SA | Swiss Forex Bank | ECN Broker | Managed accounts | Swiss FX trading platform

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  #537 (permalink)
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Fat Tails View Post
Let us wait for a trendline break first.

Or wait for price to reach the 50% level , stay on the train uptown before listening to whats "due" .

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Eric j View Post
Or wait for price to reach the 50% level , stay on the train uptown before listening to whats "due" .

Fibo question:

Ericj took for his fib in the above chart the points A-Z (blue). That's logic (high/low). Medium term memory.
I take in this early phase the last significant high point B-Z (red). Short term memory.

IMO fibos have a certain relevance in currency trading because many traders do watch them. Let's take that as a fact as I do not want to start a discussion about fibo philosophy.

Are there any rules/guidance weather the majority of EURUSD traders tends to A-Z or B-Z at this specific point? Because the majority makes the rules and not my logic.

P.S.: Ericj's 50 is equal with my 61.8 what could make that level more significant as we both watch it..

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  #539 (permalink)
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terratec View Post
Fibo question:

Ericj took for his fib in the above chart the points A-Z (blue). That's logic (high/low). Medium term memory.
I take in this early phase the last significant high point B-Z (red). Short term memory.

IMO fibos have a certain relevance in currency trading because many traders do watch them. Let's take that as a fact as I do not want to start a discussion about fibo philosophy.

Are there any rules/guidance weather the majority of EURUSD traders tends to A-Z or B-Z at this specific point? Because the majority makes the rules and not my logic.

P.S.: Ericj's 50 is equal with my 61.8 what could make that level more significant as we both watch it..

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I personally would have used B-Z as the shorterm 50%s have already been broken on the last move up. Personally I think A is part of another rotation but that's just the way I look at it (not saying I am right).. That being said I've found in the EUR the market either respects 50s very well or plays with 61s by penetrating getting people to look at longs and then coming right back down for a fall.. In other words its not the cleanest.. but in more cases than not I find it respects 50s (as you drew them) very well..

Btw most of my observations are from intraday moves so feel free to make me wrong as I am always up for learning something new..

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terratec View Post
Because the majority makes the rules and not my logic.

@terratec: I love that sentence, because it tells it all. Fibonacci lines are a fad, and as you pointed out, the majority makes the rule. I use confluence to determine the points.

According to my daily Fibonacci indicator, there was resistance at 1.3894, and that is where yesterday's daily high was made. This level was already known in January of this year....

The charts below show, how that resistance at 1.3894 can be established by using retracements, measured moves and expansions.

Attached Thumbnails
EURUSD 6E Euro-fibonacci1.jpg   EURUSD 6E Euro-fibonacci2.jpg   EURUSD 6E Euro-fibonacci3.jpg   EURUSD 6E Euro-measured-moves.jpg  
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