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EURUSD 6E Euro
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EURUSD 6E Euro

  #481 (permalink)
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@Fat Tails

Chart 3 What does the purple zone represent, is that the previous days range +SD1 to -SD1? How about the dotted orange line?

Chart 4 What is the Support Zone derived from? Is your daily volatility target indi available for download?

Thanks for your help.


Fat Tails View Post
Chart 1 show that zhe bottom of the range established on Monday was tested yesterday, and now it is going up.

Chart 2 shows the trendline break which occured on Monday morning. I would expect a restest at some stage.

Chart 3 shows the daily trend. When price is on the orange side of the value zone the trend is confirmed. When price is on the purple side of the value zone, the trend may change.

Chart 4 shows that 6E has now reached its daily volatility target and formed a reversal bar, time to exit part of the position.Note that there were only three reversal bars detected on the whoe chart. All have promiment positions.


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  #482 (permalink)
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Quite an amazing chart.

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  #483 (permalink)
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3800 + daily range + R3... seems a likely place to run out of steam for the day.

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The euro:

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  #485 (permalink)
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Wish I could stay awake for the London open :-/

I'm buying on pullbacks above 1.3794 (ETA...assuming there's been a hook upward on the 1800 tick chart stoch. So far no go and the potential floor is now 1.37785 and dropping....waiting for a double or triple hook upward on the 1800 stoch to go long. That is, setup on the 1800 tick chart, entries & stops on the 200 tick to maximize risk/reward ).

ETA: Finally long at 1.37725 but with initial full stop at 1.3768. Moved stop to + 5 pips, wondering if the overnight pop was a short squeeze that has run out of steam and I'm the only buyer.

ETA: stopped out at +5 pips :-( So far the little engine can't.

ETA: back in long at 1.3773 with a 2 pip stop based solely on 200 tick price action--no S/R in the vicinity that I can see. Will go to stop at break even + 2 pips ASAP if not stopped out first.

ETA: stopped out at -2 pips. Time to sit on my hands until momentum turns around or clear down trend emerges.

ETA: in long at 1.3770 with a -2 pip initial stop. Only reason I want to go long is I don't want to bet against a positive European market and in the best of all possible worlds there may be another 100 pips to the upside left in the old girl if price breaks above 1.3825. An iffy proposition at best, possibly a narrow range trade while price makes up its mind.

ETA: stopped out -2 pips again. May be flogging a dead horse looking for consolidation exit to the upside too soon--in absolute terms so far a number of -2 pip stops have cost me 40% of my daily loss limit (2% of the account) :-( In my experience rather than trying to pick the bottom a much higher probability trade is to enter on the first retrace of any emerging trend--so far that rule seems unbroken. Momentum decaying to zero ahead of NY open. Bullish perspective will change if 1800 tick 50SMA turns negative after the open.

ETA: on initial NY ebullience, consistently rising 600 tick momentum and even a momentarily rising 1800 tick momentum bar long at 1.3761 with break even stop + 2 pips. Immediately stopped out. Placed another long order at 1.37635 (MM 0/8 on 200 tick chart)

ETA: accumulating. Average entry 1.37645. Now all in long at 1.37645 with +2 pip stop. First hurdle at 1.37785

Initial situation, but open was parabolic and therefore market may be highly volatile for a while:
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ETA: Stopped out at 1.3776. If currency can maintain current range -- what ever that is -- I expect it to correlate with the DOW when the NY stock market opens in 10 minutes and calm down, hopefully like hitching an impetuous young horse beside the old gray mare :-/ 5 minutes before stock market open back in longat 1.3760 with initial stop moved to break even +4 pips (slippage may be an issue). Stopped out flat at +4 pips, still looking for long entry. Back in at 1.37625 with +2 pip stop, stopped out at + 2 pips. 4 minutes after NY stock market open back in at 1.37625 with +2 pip initial stop once in the money since EUR trade may be finding its fingers. Stopped at +2, back in at 1.37625. Out, in. This could take a while at +2 pips a trade :-/.

ETA: 10 minutes into NY stock market open all in long at 1.3758, stop presently at break even +5 pips. Not a trend trade yet by a long shot. Stopped out at +5, back in at 1.37565. Stopped out at -2. Appears to have picked up the DOW, which gapped up slightly and may therefore be trying to close the gap before picking a direction (e.g., up if DOW clears 11490.5 which probably correlates with EUR @ 1.37940). Impossible to say how long it's going to flop around however. Current position long at 1.37635 with +14 pip stop while EUR takes another run at 1.37940 at 25 minutes into NY stocks open. Stopped out at +14 pips. Better than a poke in the eye. Not sure I'd call the DOW confirmation but it and the EUR are in lock step. Back in at 1.37785, + 2 pip stop. Stopped at +2 pips.

ETA: Price bouncing off rising 50SMA on 200 tick chart so back in at 1.3783. 1800 and 600 tick charts showing signs of upward bias. Interestingly EUR just decoupled from DOW, stuck at 1.3782 while DOW is gapping up. Only sure bet is price is totally unpredictable but probability is EUR with trot dutifully after the DOW / DX at some point.

ETA: With price tracking the DOW again and therefore above 1.3794 moved stop to +10 pips at 1.3793. Early trend on 1800 & 600 tick charts itching to retrace so expect to be stopped. Stopped at 1.3793, will go long at bottom of retrace likely at same spot stopped out since may be bottom of mini-consolidation on 600SMA, but whither the DOW there goes the EUR. Or the other way around. Long at 1.37915. In the money stop at MM 0/8 (+3.5 pips), price on another upward tear. Old gray mare must be getting her legs run off.

ETA: at 10:30 EST (11:30 on my charts) still long from 1.37915, total position stop at 1.3810 just taken out for +18.5 pips. Waiting to go long, one eye on DOW. In long at 1.38085, EUR seriously dragging its feet wrt DOW so hoping for slingshot upward, but could also mean start of decoupling during EUR price retrace--hopefully. Stopped at -2 pips. Back in at 1.3796. Decoupling twixt DOW & EUR may be a phase lag. Stopped at +2 pips. Things about to get sillier with the approach of European close.

ETA: in around 1.3780 after the descent, stopped out at +2 pips. Shouldn't be playing the Euro close....

ETA: Slovakia vote just passed. If that's positive for the EUR you won't know it yet--may be yesterday's news. Long at 1.37835, +2 pip stop once in the money, moved to +10 pips at 1.37925 then 1.3799 when EUR started one of its manic rises (all initial in the money stops mentioned account for commissions, higher trailing stops do not.) Stopped out for +15 pips or so. Buying and selling at 200 tick stoch lows and highs respectively for 3-15 pip gains and 2 pip losses. Should quit while ahead. And I think I will. Put a long at 1.3800 on the back burner with an auto 10 pip trailing stop (currently more or less at break even) R3 target more or less (1.3854). Will check back in a few hours.


Last edited by bnichols; October 12th, 2011 at 01:25 PM.
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  #486 (permalink)
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dakine View Post
Chart 3 What does the purple zone represent, is that the previous days range +SD1 to -SD1? How about the dotted orange line?.

How much was the Euro yesterday? As a response I would use the VWAP of the FOREX session from 5:00 PM to 5:00 PM EST. The orange dotted line is yesterday's VWAP. The purple line on the other side of the purple zone (barely visible) is cumulated VWAP of yesterday and the day before yesterday.

The purple zone represents value as it etends between yesterday's price and the wieghted price of the last two days.



dakine View Post
Chart 4 What is the Support Zone derived from? Is your daily volatility target indi available for download?

The support zone are automatically calculated from price action during the Asian, European and US session. Support and resistance as shown are calculated from the US session of Monday. Ysterday, the Euro stayed within this session.

The daily volatility target is available for download. Search the download section for SessionVolatilityBands. You need to use a session template reflecting the trading hours of 6E and set the indicator to ETH to catch that target. The Noise Bands are also available for download. I have set them to RTH and the London session to show the breakout points.

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  #487 (permalink)
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Or you could just use price!

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rassi View Post
Or you could just use price!

Price alone will not tell you anything about the underlying tensions. A resumption of a trend or a breakout from a range is typically more explosive than a reversal, unless the market has been extremely overextended.

Whether an explosive move can take place or not, depends where price sits relative to value. If price has already travelled too far with respect to yesterday's value zone, any following move may lack conviction and represent a bad risk profile.


Last edited by Fat Tails; October 12th, 2011 at 10:38 AM.
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  #489 (permalink)
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Fat Tails View Post
Price alone will not tell you anything about the underlying tensions. A resumption of a trend or a breakout from a range is typically more explosive than a reversal, unless the market has been extremely over extended.

Whether an explosive move can take place or not, depends where price sits relative to value. If price has already travelled too far with respect to yesterday's value zone, any following move may lack conviction and represent a bad risk profile.

I respectfully disagree entirely. Price is the perfect indicator of 'underlying tensions' value is relative to the markets perception of price.

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rassi View Post
I respectfully disagree entirely. Price is the perfect indicator of 'underlying tensions' value is relative to the markets perception of price.


Disagreement is a wonderful thing, I guess that we agree on that we do not need to agree on everything.


If you reed price from the chart, where do you read the market's perceptions to know what to with it?

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