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EURUSD 6E Euro
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EURUSD 6E Euro

  #461 (permalink)
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Private Banker View Post
Seems like 3740 area is a good magnet for price in the short term provided no shocking news comes out. Beyond that, 39's or even 40's could be hit.

Hello P.B., I was thinking the same thing. That being said I will assess things again when/if it gets there

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  #462 (permalink)
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bnichols View Post
Trading the spot currency market and taking cues from http://forexmillion.com/forex-forecast/eur-usd, which on a slow news day (which today is not, it appears) seems to get the tipping points right more often than not, I've been long EUR/USD since the pivot (printed at 1.35673 on an NT 1800 tick chart) with 1/4 position targets at 1.36715 (MM 4/8), 1.37000 (obvious reasons), 1.37940 (MM 5/8 33 pips above R1) and 1.3889 (R2). Manual trailing stop fluctuates but mainly placed 2 pips below last retrace, presently 10 pips below price (currently~1.3656 @12:28 EST and contracting)

Edited to add: that said, am watching CNBC for news about the vote in Slovakia :-/

Edited to add: after slippage stopped out at 1.36445

Finally: due to volatility got in at the pivot in the right direction mostly by luck. Looking for a short now, in partially at 1.3641 after 2 consecutive divergences in the double stochastics but again, given the volatility, that can change in a heartbeat--may decide to sit on my hands if it starts to consolidate. Not expecting any mega trends today unfortunately, unless spot price breaks below 1.3525 per the source referred to above. Eventually all in (short) at 1.3668 with a break-even + 2 pip initial stop, waiting to decide on a target profile.

ETA: in the money when the Slovak vote went south around 4pm NY time so took 1/8th profits after 30 pips (1.3638). If price does break below 1.3525 it may turn into an interesting trade.

Typo correction--actual average entry price was 1.3672. Took another 1/8th risk off during the Asia-Pacific trade for 30 pips at 1.3608. Except for an AB pattern on the 200 tick spot currency chart between 5pm & 8pm and another around 8pm EST no real interruption in the down trend so far . Presently 1.35855. Still hoping for sparks at 1.3525. ETA again to add--excitement at 1.3525 if price breaks through what appears to be bids materializing around 1.3585 (**2nd screen shot)

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Consolidation (may back off 0.05M 1/8 stop to see if 1.3600 resistance holds since above that the 15EMA on the 1800 tick chart is going to more or less coincide with what is the Murry Math 4/8 line on the 200 tick chart, hopefully providing some additional resistance):
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Edited to add: flat just after 11PM EST when price broke upward through MM 4/8 on 200 tick chart. Won't touch it now until I know whether it's consolidating or beginning a new upward trend (i.e., until bottom of first retrace in an uptrend). In any event it's likely going to bounce around the pivot (PP on the charts) until London opens & it's time to pack it in for the night.


Last edited by bnichols; October 12th, 2011 at 12:21 AM.
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  #463 (permalink)
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Quite a down move on very light volume.

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You can see one bar of 16384 volume (nothing magic about this figure) equals nearly the entire daily range, at end of session/after hour session.

With today's sideways movement, I simply shift most of what I said earlier to tomorrow. I think we will see 3500. Seeing 3200 by end of week is harder now simply due to time. If the bulls want to take charge, we need to see a close above 3700.

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  #464 (permalink)
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Here is a daily chart and a 4h chart.

The daily has a monthly VWAP + stddev bands, the 4h chart has a 2-day VWAP.

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Mike

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  #465 (permalink)
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Eric j View Post
but I would expect sideways and untradeable since we had a big runup yesterday .

Nice call



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  #466 (permalink)
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@Big Mike

Not sure what the running VWAP bands are. Is that a rolling 24 hour volume-weighted moving average?

Have attached my version for comparison purposes.

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  #467 (permalink)
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Fat Tails View Post
@Big Mike

Not sure what the running VWAP bands are. Is that a rolling 24 hour volume-weighted moving average?

Have attached my version for comparison purposes.

It is a multi-session VWAP, not a rolling (continuous) VWAP. I am not the author of this code as I am still a newbie in Sierra Chart. I did recently code a rolling (continuous) + multi-session VWAP for MultiCharts, but it still needs to be tested.

For my charts in this thread, it is Sierra Chart, and this indicator describes it as a multi-session VWAP with a configurable number of 'days back'. For the daily chart (1d) I am using 20 session VWAP. For the smaller charts I am using a 2 session VWAP. In both cases, I tell the indicator to not reset the average on a new session.

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  #468 (permalink)
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Keep an eye on the big picture guys, weeklys pointing to 1.4 spot

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  #469 (permalink)
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Lot of defense in the 3580's. If this area continues to hold then obviously the bulls are in control, and we could see 3800 today.

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  #470 (permalink)
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rassi View Post
Keep an eye on the big picture guys, weeklys pointing to 1.4 spot

Yes anything is possible

I am surprised by how they are defending 3570-80 area so much, so far it rockets right out of that area. This last test especially, where price was moving forcefully down into the 70's, then now has bounced almost straight back up. That is 100 ticks down, then 100 ticks back up in short order.

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If that continues then we could definitely see 3725 today, and I think 3800 is even within reach.


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