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Broken out of our channel. Falling wedge or triangle pattern forming. Higher lows on our distribution, after breaking our triangle. Possible third wave coming, with 1.156-1.158 target.
The bounce off last week's low didn't put up too much of a fight... bears simply absorbed and moved onward today.
This has to be the most laid back run I've seen in the EU in a long time... but it's been highly effective lol. Everyone keeps expecting a big pullback, and it just hasn't happened... coupled with strong bullish retail sentiment, I am riding with the trend until proven wrong.
Would not be a big surprise to see some profit taking tomorrow or Friday, the entire week has had an extremely low ADR and we are overdue for some sort of big day very soon. Let's try to be on the right side of it.
We've fallen far beyond the wedge, volume continues to fall. Distribution has jumped back into the triangle formation. I think a fairly sharp recovery is coming.
EU has been in a massive bear run for the entire week. The big MM from the top of the range has been in play twice now, and it appears very possible bears could run it down for another one, stabbing 2018 lows in the process.
Today was the first day bulls really had any type of measurable response, and volume was on the rise today because of it.
Are they waking up? Very possibly; looking below there's not a whole lot of places left for them to make a stand. If this one doesn't hold then bears will be challenging for the very bottom of the range we've been in for the last few months. Grab your popcorn folks... this could get interesting.
A look at the daily now shows volume on the rise... we very well may be looking at some lower lows in 2019 if bulls can't get it together and get this thing turned around. Tomorrow, Friday, could be big even with no news announcement... we've had a week of narrow bear ranges all the way down, and are due for a big day of some sort. Will it be a correction? Or another big push down? Hard to say... first up, gotta see what Asia does, then Frankie, then London... we shall see!
Bulls really not giving a whole lot to work with here... this swing down has been and still is extremely bearish. We've had a few signs of life lately but nothing compelling whatsoever, pretty much bumps in the road. Structurally speaking, this area is really the last place the bulls can make a stand, and without one there's not much in the way of significantly lower prices. Coupled with retail sentiment leaning heavily bullish... all directions point down for me at this point.
I don't see any evidence of bulls. I've noticed with these persistent downtrend, few pullbacks, that it's really the start of something big. To my eyes, it's an imminent break of the November lows and the multi-month range. If break holds, a measured move would be about 2 cents, bringing us to 1.11.
It's very hard for me to hold though. I've been short many times in this move on an intraday basis, yet overall breakeven. Monkey brain.
Looking for next short around 1.1364. Here's the H4 chart I'm referencing.
A closer look, with VP, showing VPOC last week around 1.1370
"It does not matter how slowly you go, as long as you do not stop." Confucius
