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I still have no long term directional bias yet, i want to see the vote result, and UK + EU respond first if 'yes' voters win...
but, i do think that the impact will be significant ...
Scotland exit from UK can trigger UK exit from European Union ...
If Scotland choose Yes, then what next, entry into european union is one of the possibility ...
UNCLOS show that there is chance scotland will keep 90% of the oil (if i'm not mistaken there's still 15-24 billion barrel per 2013) ...
etc ...
If scotland vote 'no', then we can forget about all off that and go back to Parity. For me its still not confirmed yet but if E/U can break 1.26500 even by small margin, it will be the first sign ... and off course there will be a second, third, fourth, etc signs ...
If you ask me, given the strong downward momentum, i think you can put it that way / the beginning of a trend. Weak economy, deflation risk, weak credit backdrop, but potentially more aggressive ECB in the future and lower fiscal drag might change the trend direction ... but these are just my (worthless) 2 cent ... like always ...
I haven't studied the delta volume and similars in this case, but it is also possible that it wasn't a net buy process. You know there are people technnically capable to increase de price selling more than buying.
...