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EURUSD 6E Euro
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EURUSD 6E Euro

  #1861 (permalink)
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Silver Dragon View Post
This is a classic Double Top chart. Hind sight being 20/20 it makes perfect since to short the double top. Currently 238 ticks from from the high. Easy money right?? not so much.. I thought about shorting it but couldn't pull the trigger.

For those still learning; notice how the price bounces off the support and resistance levels on the way back down.

Robert

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Double tops by themselves are tough to me because in this case you could end up shorting in an uptrend several times. (done that...) Even watching the local DT then selling the retrace after it - failed a few times...

On longer time frames like 1 hr I might use a DT to exit but with multi-day trends I tend to think I am crappy at calling reversals and should just go with obvious trend until stopped out.

Something that might have been a clue here to me might have been just the fact that these last two tops were right after US open 2 days in a row we could not push higher. The other "tops" I showed were @ odd hours.

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  #1862 (permalink)
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websouth View Post
Double tops by themselves are tough to me because in this case you could end up shorting in an uptrend several times. (done that...) Even watching the local DT then selling the retrace after it - failed a few times...

On longer time frames like 1 hr I might use a DT to exit but with multi-day trends I tend to think I am crappy at calling reversals and should just go with obvious trend until stopped out.

Something that might have been a clue here to me might have been just the fact that these last two tops were right after US open 2 days in a row we could not push higher. The other "tops" I showed were @ odd hours.

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Depends on how you qualify a double top. For me they have to be preceded by a large move, and must have well defined peaks. In your chart, here are the double tops I see. When I see huge move followed by 'Muck' as identified in my chart, I consider that a breathing period before another breakout leg in the same direction. The muckier the action after the large move the more potential for a breakout. The more well defined the divergence peaks after the large move the better the potential for a reversal. The 2nd double top on my chart is a muckish divergence, so I would not have expected that to reverse very far.

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Last edited by monpere; September 20th, 2012 at 11:56 AM.
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  #1863 (permalink)
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monpere View Post
What do you see on this chart that might have helped you pull the trigger? I don't trade the 60 min, but the moment I looked at your chart, I knew what I was going to see on mine. I always look for divergence on double tops.

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@monpere

2 reasons which I had written down in my journal on why I didnt not take this trade:

I have trouble taking trades which last longer than 24 hours. Had this been a intra day 5 minute chart I would have shorted off the the double top without any issues.

I didnt want it to interfere with my short term trading. Had issues in a the past where I somehow messed up my longer term position with a short term position.

Possible solution: My broker allows multiple users for the same account. I could setup another user name for long term trading. This will keep the positions separate and allow me to experiment with long term trades.

Thanks for making me think through this!

Robert

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  #1864 (permalink)
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@monpere

2 reasons which I had written down in my journal on why I didnt not take this trade:

I have trouble taking trades which last longer than 24 hours. Had this been a intra day 5 minute chart I would have shorted off the the double top without any issues.

I didnt want it to interfere with my short term trading. Had issues in a the past where I somehow messed up my longer term position with a short term position.

Possible solution: My broker allows multiple users for the same account. I could setup another user name for long term trading. This will keep the positions separate and allow me to experiment with long term trades.

Thanks for making me think through this!

Robert

I actually trade my long term (IRA) positions through a totally different broker, and since those are swing trades, I only look for setups in that account after market. I've never tried it, but I suppose you can have a longer term position on, and still trade that same instrument long and short in the same account. I guess you will just see the average position size increase or decrease as you go in and out of the short term positions... I would assume.

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  #1865 (permalink)
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Long 1.3006 Stop ??'94 Target 1.3026

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  #1866 (permalink)
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Long 1.3006 Stop ??'94 Target 1.3026


I added 2 contracts when this trade pulled back on me right out of the gate. My order to sell 2 @ '26 never triggered, then it pulled back hard in my face, I added two more, looking for half the move and came up short by a few ticks. My tight stop under these lows held, I started spoon feeding the market @ '03 then '07 then my targets got hit. Could'a, Would'a, Should'a is par for the course on a Friday afternoon.

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  #1867 (permalink)
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Long 1.3006 Stop ??'94 Target 1.3026

@Cashish

What did you see that made you enter the market at these levels?

Robert

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  #1868 (permalink)
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I added 2 contracts when this trade pulled back on me right out of the gate. My order to sell 2 @ '26 never triggered, then it pulled back hard in my face, I added two more, looking for half the move and came up short by a few ticks. My tight stop under these lows held, I started spoon feeding the market @ '03 then '07 then my targets got hit. Could'a, Would'a, Should'a is par for the course on a Friday afternoon.

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It's great to post charts, but I have no idea why you entered and/or exited these trades.

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  #1869 (permalink)
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It's great to post charts, but I have no idea why you entered and/or exited these trades.

I can only see one reason for posting your trades in public without explanations: to show off your moves to others.

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  #1870 (permalink)
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I'm almost embarrassed to try to explain these trades. This trade that I thought was going to be a quick move up started to go horribly wrong in a hurry. This is a VWAP that starts calculating at 8:20 am There's also a Volume profile on the chart, I have removed the profile and left only the POC shifts (red line). The whole idea was to catch a bounce off the -2SD level (1.3006) and exit the trade on the VWAP (1.3028) which was also the POC when I entered the trade. But, price fell further than '06 and found support at the PIVOT Number (1.2994) I added one contract as price rotation approached the pivot and and another on the pivot. While price rotated around the pivot and the -2SD level the POC shifted down to my entry level (1.3006), it was getting pretty crowded down there. Price took off and traded above the VWAP by 2 ticks, I had targets between the two levels (VWAP ('22) and POC ('28)) at 24, 26 and 28. When the POC shifted down I moved the '28 target to '26 but that was still a bit to high when the up move stopped short at '24. When price returned to my entry level I entered two more contracts near the Pivot Number once again, targeting the (falling) VWAP one more time, but price wedged its self between the new position of the POC and the Pivot Number and went no where for almost two hours. I put stops under the market and basically gave up on this trade while I cleaned up my office and carried out some trash. When I returned my alert was sounding, signaling price was trading at '05, I wasted no time unwinding these trades.

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FWIW, I posted a trade earlier today and just didn't feel like doing it all again.
https://futures.io/trading-journals/15779-trading-6e-euro-eur-usd-futures-contract-old-school-twist-12.html#post264716


Last edited by Cashish; September 22nd, 2012 at 06:42 AM.
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