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EURUSD 6E Euro
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EURUSD 6E Euro

  #1771 (permalink)
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The Beige Book report comes out today at 2pm, with the disastrous Consumer Confidence number yesterday I think the B Book report could be a market mover.

My question is this, Where +/- 10 pips will the price of the Euro be at 1:45 pm est. or 17:45 GMT (is that right?).

I always look for the heavy hitters to position themselves deep in the market at both extremes of the day's range prior to a major release, an example might be, to load the boat short at 1.2600 early in the day (given the opportunity) with the anticipation of a sell off at 2pm. Price might be at 1.2600 at 7:20 am and then 1.2520 at 1:45pm.

So, if anyone cares to play along type in the level(s) you expect to see on your chart at 1:45 pm est. Let's set a dead line for "your best guess" by 12:00 (noon) est. Nothing scientific here, just pure, meaningless fun.

My guess, 1.2540


Anyone else willing to play along? If so get your numbers in by Noon.


I'm tired



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  #1772 (permalink)
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Tonight was one of the most stressful trading sessions I've had in a long time, I had connection issues. I'm pretty sure it was local, somewhere here on my end. My connection seemed "clunky" from the start but stayed connected (I think) until after I placed my orders. We have had a lot of rain down here as the tropical storm/hurricane pasted by. A few years ago I lost my phone service and a repairman came out. After checking things around my house he walked down the street to a connection box and motioned for me to come and take a look. When rains saturate low areas ants seek higher ground, in fact if they can't find higher ground they clump together and float on top of the water. When this floating mass bumps into something (like a telephone connection box) they take it over. When the repairman pulled the cover off that box it was a solid mass of ants, he said he sees that often after heavy rains. Of course I have no idea if that could be what happened to my cable connection this morning but I do know my Ninja Log shows 15 re-connections!!

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After the EU open price fell and rotated around the VWAP in a ten point range for an hour. I put orders in and targeted the Sell Number and used the Pivot for a stop. I saved one bullet and let it ride under fifty in a hope of catching a pull back under the VWAP, I got it. During all this time my IB connection would go out, then my IQ, then the IB. Finally price moved up and started reaching for my targets, I closed the last position with a market order.

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My wife told me she rented a beach house this weekend for a birthday party for her sister, so I'm done for the weekend, going to play with the kids for a few days. Just a heads up about the Holiday Trading Hours at the CME. Enjoy your weekends.

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Last edited by Cashish; August 31st, 2012 at 08:29 AM.
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  #1773 (permalink)
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My wife told me she rented a beach house this weekend for a birthday party for her sister, so I'm done for the weekend, going to play with the kids for a few days.


Change of plans, the girls had other plans. Since several of them had to go to school this morning, last night at the house turned into a (young) Girls Night Out!

Back to the Mighty Euro, now this is what I was talking about when I mentioned re positioning at the extremes prior to a major news event/release. This first chart shows the shifts of the value area (and POCs) of all the bars on the chart. Talk about extremes, during the overnight traders could have positioned themselves +/-30 points under the value area long, with expectations of "Ben" kicking the can for another couple of weeks. Now, (as I type this) the opportunity to short is offered to those traders that think "Ben" might actually throw the dollar bulls a bone this morning. As always many other factors come into play. Obviously, short squeeze tops my list, but will it come before the Ben speech or after? Is this a head fake of the squeeze that may never come, or is it the real thing? So, again my question is where will price be at 9:45 am est. ??? Only @Bharatiya played along the last time, (thanks Bharatiya) My S.W.A.G. (scientific wild ass guess) is price will be in the low 1.2590s or high 1.2580s


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  #1774 (permalink)
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A chart from the Globex open.

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A chart from the EU open.

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A chart from the U.S. open.

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  #1775 (permalink)
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Some final charts.

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Now I'm done, don't forget the early close.

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  #1776 (permalink)
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To the Mighty Euro


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Jeez what a miserable week! I was completely out of sync with the market Mon - Thur. I could not have read the price action worse than if I had simply tossed a coin. So choppy, up 20 pips then look away for 10 mins and you are down 30pips.

I was lucky to recover my losses and end the week at breakeven. Feels like a win. Time to say hello to my friend Jack.

Through the teeth
and around the gums
watch out tummy
here it comes!


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My wife told me she rented a beach house this weekend for a birthday party for her sister, so I'm done for the weekend, going to play with the kids for a few days.

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  #1780 (permalink)
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2012 CME holiday calendar:
http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/holiday-calendar/files/2012-labor-day.pdf

Trading halts Monday 12:00pm Noon Central, and resumes 5:00pm Central for 6E.

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Mike

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

Need help?
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2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses.
3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make.
4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance.
5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers.
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If you want
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