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EURUSD 6E Euro
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EURUSD 6E Euro

  #1601 (permalink)
Site Administrator
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Well, my short from yesterday didn't work so well. I could have covered with a nice profit but when market turned (around 12:30pm eastern, FOMC) it did so with force and caught me off guard. I ended up exiting with a tiny profit when we sold off after not taking out weekly high.

But now that I have the benefit of today's action, I do believe we will move higher the remainder of this week. I saw price move up today with far less resistance than it moved down.

And all those shorts are just screaming "squeeze me!!!", I think the market can move higher far easier than it can move lower. If everyone is piled on short, and we can't go down, then it means the move up can really have a lot of momentum.

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Mike

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  #1602 (permalink)
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Traderji View Post
If you de-construct @researcher247 posts they are mostly gibberish, often self-contradictory. The post I was replying to was such a post. He claims to buy on pullbacks and breakouts to the upside. And then in the next sentence he says he is taking profits. If you are buying on both pullbacks and breakouts, where exactly do you take profits?

His posts make sense to me. I can't get behind any of the astrology part, but the cycles and risk approach make sense to me.

He started with a small position and is adding to it. It seems likely he is taking some profits as he goes, but continuing to build a larger position over time, aka trading around a position.

Mike

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

Need help?
1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first.
2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses.
3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make.
4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance.
5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers.
6)
Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.

If you want
to support our community, become an Elite Member.

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  #1603 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Big Mike View Post
His posts make sense to me.
Mike


We'll have to agree to disagree and leave it at that



Big Mike View Post
And all those shorts are just screaming "squeeze me!!!", I think the market can move higher far easier than it can move lower. If everyone is piled on short, and we can't go down, then it means the move up can really have a lot of momentum.
Mike


The problem with that is that any good news rally now seems to have a lifetime of few hours. Spanish bailout, Greek elections, Fed OpTwist extension, ESM/EFSF buying bonds - all of these fizzled out. Any of these by themselves should have had the shorts running for cover but the market faded all of them.

Short of the ECB buying bonds in bulk I am not sure what will move the markets decisively to the upside.

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  #1604 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Big Mike View Post
I'm not sure if you are joking or not.

But, I do the same thing. I never put on a full position (all-in) in one spot. If price moves in my favor, I try to add when I believe the trade will continue in my favor. If price moves against me, I will add so long as I believe the overall trade idea is still sound.

Everyone always drills into your brain "only losers average losers", or don't add to a losing position. The trick is, like most things, context.

To me, a losing position in this regard is one where the trade has gotten away from you, it is beyond your initial stop, you've moved the stop, and you are now desperate to "average" the trade by adding to it, trying to turn a loser into a winner. That is not what I do.

I have a pre-determined stop level when I enter the trade. I am willing to add if price moves against me, but the original trade idea still makes sense, and has not taken out my stop. I also add when price moves in my favor.

BTW, it goes without saying, but this strategy really only works when you are trading bigger time frames. You can't make this work with tiny stops. I often have 40-50 tick stops and 100 tick targets, and I find this works well.


Mike

@Big Mike,

hope you don't mind my worthless 2 cents here.

I often read about that good traders are not looking what they can win, they are more concerned what they can lose. and I fully agree with that.

with that in mind, I strongly disagree with your approach. especially for newer futures traders it's not recommended imho. if you want to build a position and are willing to add to your position and hold it over a longer period of time for a bigger profit, then I would look for other instruments, like options, etf, stocks etc. (just something you know exactly how much you can lose!)

reason is risk. what happens if the market is closed and the unexpected happen? let's say you've a bigger short position in 6e at 1.27. now some central banks made a very unusual move and 6e opens at 1.75? (I know not very likely, but you never know...) now depending on your position and account size, your account might be red.

again this is just imho and not very likely to happen. but just keep that in mind.

I only use futures as a hedging and a short term trading instrument.

now I'm ready for my beating. :sos:

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  #1605 (permalink)
Site Administrator
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Silvester17 View Post
@Big Mike,

hope you don't mind my worthless 2 cents here.

I often read about that good traders are not looking what they can win, they are more concerned what they can lose. and I fully agree with that.

with that in mind, I strongly disagree with your approach. especially for newer futures traders it's not recommended imho. if you want to build a position and are willing to add to your position and hold it over a longer period of time for a bigger profit, then I would look for other instruments, like options, etf, stocks etc. (just something you know exactly how much you can lose!)

reason is risk. what happens if the market is closed and the unexpected happen? let's say you've a bigger short position in 6e at 1.27. now some central banks made a very unusual move and 6e opens at 1.75? (I know not very likely, but you never know...) now depending on your position and account size, your account might be red.

again this is just imho and not very likely to happen. but just keep that in mind.

I only use futures as a hedging and a short term trading instrument.

now I'm ready for my beating. :sos:

No arguments from me. You can see I tell people to not trade futures on a daily basis, basically begging them to start with something smaller and less risk. Futures is not a beginners instrument class.

Personally, I try to avoid holding overnight but sometimes I do because it's no big deal. You need to be aware of news, and of course you have to be prepared for the consequences.

Mike

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

Need help?
1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first.
2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses.
3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make.
4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance.
5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers.
6)
Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.

If you want
to support our community, become an Elite Member.

Reply With Quote
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  #1606 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
No arguments from me. You can see I tell people to not trade futures on a daily basis, basically begging them to start with something smaller and less risk. Futures is not a beginners instrument class.

Personally, I try to avoid holding overnight but sometimes I do because it's no big deal. You need to be aware of news, and of course you have to be prepared for the consequences.

Mike

I know Mike advocates micro FX for beginners. What I found works great for me is sim trading 6E a couple hours in the morning before work and use the levels from my morning homework to set EUR/USD level alerts in my live micro FX brokers mobile trading platform for swing setups. It's actually been paying for my lunch every day . I find I am much more constantly aware of levels and news, much more so than just the morning sim, plus I get a little bit of the real money rush. Love this thread by the way.

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  #1607 (permalink)
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Hola all,

I really feel bad about myself now; I forecasted and then traded that forecast correctly by pinpointing the bottom of the Euro within 1 day and am anticipating a multi-month move higher--but I am not 'feeding' certain audience members every single entry w/ trade by trade buy & sells I am making and every single shorter-term buy & sell (yes, pullbacks and confirmed breakouts to the upside).

I guess I am not making any ticks along the way either with my voodoo planetary and geometrical price/time/space analysis? I wouldn't know how to trade a 'core' position with size either if my life depended on it; nope. Never did it before; not to mention 1,700X's before over 27+ years {that's only a little over 1 trade per week on avg.}.

Am I supposed to become a vendor and then not be a trader and just an educator?? Are you out of your mind, no way??!!

Nope. I'm really short and lost over 100K on this trade. So I have to go work digging ditches now. I hope you are all happy!

So much emotion from a fundamentalist speaks to the 'squeeze' (slow & hard & painful) of those that think the euro cannot go up 'stairstepping' along the way.

Keep on keepin' on y'all!!

peace

'day-laborer' voodoo-boy hedvig


Last edited by researcher247; June 21st, 2012 at 08:41 AM.
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  #1608 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Mumbai+India
 
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researcher247 View Post
Hola all,

I really feel bad about myself now; I forecasted and then traded that forecast correctly by pinpointing the bottom of the Euro within 1 day and am anticipating a multi-month move higher--but I am not 'feeding' certain audience members every single entry w/ trade by trade buy & sells I am making and every single shorter-term buy & sell (yes, pullbacks and confirmed breakouts to the upside).

I guess I am not making any ticks along the way either with my voodoo planetary and geometrical price/time/space analysis? I wouldn't know how to trade a 'core' position with size either if my life depended on it; nope. Never did it before; not to mention 1,700X's before over 27+ years {that's only a little over 1 trade per week on avg.}.

Am I supposed to become a vendor and then not be a trader and just an educator?? Are you out of your mind, no way??!!

Nope. I'm really short and lost over 100K on this trade. So I have to go work digging ditches now. I hope you are all happy!

So much emotion from a fundamentalist speaks to the 'squeeze' (slow & hard & painful) of those that think the euro cannot go up 'stairstepping' along the way.

Keep on keepin' on y'all!!

peace

'day-laborer' voodoo-boy hedvig

did u really lost 100k?

are u leaving trading now?

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  #1609 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Ali Huzaifa View Post
did u really lost 100k?

are u leaving trading now?

--------------
Um, go through ALL of my posts here and then read my online journal in the 'about me' section.

What do you think??

peace

hedvig

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  #1610 (permalink)
Market Wizard
virginia
 
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lolu View Post
... I eventually ended up being a Computer Systems Engineer and now I'm stuck in cyberspace.
....
Lolu

you should be a graphic designer.

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