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EURUSD 6E Euro
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EURUSD 6E Euro

  #1551 (permalink)
Identify Evaluate Execute
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Hi. Interested in other opinions on this instrument as well. I'm looking at the R3 resistance line (in purple) on the chart and corresponding cumulative delta (R3 in purple on the lower panel) showing a large delta divergence. So the difference between the R3 delta line 8k and current delta -28k is about -38k.

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If price starts to spike heavily above the last resistance line and blows through the Low Volume Area (shown in pink) we could see a pretty big pop. The Euro has been in a beautiful trading range and I was going to look at shorts at the pink line back into value for a high risk/reward trade. I don't like this large net short position though and the fact that value is starting to build higher as evidenced by three successively higher POCs and value overlapping higher so I'm not considering shorts right now. Still have a long trade trigger/setup under the value area low which has been adjusted to an upward move of the value area high.

Cheers
DJ

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  #1552 (permalink)
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peglegtrading View Post
Hey Mike,

Great charts. How is the delta reading the past 24 hours?

It has improved, and I believe we will see a short squeeze rally into Friday close as many exit their position ahead of the vote.

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Mike

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  #1553 (permalink)
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Update #1



researcher247 View Post
--------------
Hola again Traderji,

It is a MONTHLY cycle low and a WEEKLY cycle low (certainly not a quarterly/bi-annual/yearly or multi-yearly cycle). I will write again that I am looking for a multi-month 'stair-step' up rally in 6E. It is my trading view (plan) that the low is in (recent daily swing low on June 2nd).

My 'base'/core position was established from 1.2340 up to 1.2395 (66% of my size). The remainder is avg. price entry of 1.2467 (33% size). My risk:reward on this trade is approximately from 1:3 up to 1:9 Those are sufficient for me in my trading plan.

I use esoteric analysis quite a bit for these 'campaign' trades. It takes work to triangulate a low/high w/in 1 day in what seems like a sea of randomness and uncertainty. I closely follow the teachings of men before me; notably, Myles Wilson Walker, Bradley Cowan, Gann, Lars von Thienen & Jim Hurst {should be obvious by now}.

For precisely this reason I rarely post about my longer-term/mid-term swingtrades. People get a bit emotional. Ahh--that is part of the analysis (hint, hint).

Finally, it is NOT necessary to use my approach to identify swing highs and lows within non-linear cycles. I will be showing @GaryD a simple swingtrading method he can use later this fall that is at least 75%+ accurate using nothing but indicators he has in Ninjatrader; I think he'll be tickled. However, I'll let him write about it here if he wants to--he is kind of a prolific journaler.

Regardless, I have to get back to trading. Thanks for the questions again.

Good trading to you!

'trade what you see'

peace

hedvig

------------
Good ticks accumulating thus far,

If we near 1.28 on Friday or Sunday beginning on the open @/near 5pm est I will then take profits (66%) and wait for another pullback--perhaps quite deep after Sunday night; then yet again move powerfully to the upside beginning after 10am est on Wed. June 20th...

This is how I trade a monthly cycle low; I am in on moderate and deep pullbacks within an established uptrend AFTER I have confirmed the bottom (that is still holding). I am out majority 2/3rd's on impulsive upmoves to NEW highs. Then I work my way back to 100% allocation on said moderate and deep pullbacks.

On a trade that I put on (since I am trading more than 3 contracts) I go in 10 (16.5% of total position)/20 (33% of total position)/10 (16.5% of total position).

5 for the 'moderate' pullback zone I 'expect' will reverse. If I am a bit early I then put on 10 within the deeper pullback. When we have cleared my entry zone that I put 5 on; I add my final 5 on confirmation of the initial trade.

Recall, I have a MONTHLY cycle low for 6E (which means it has until the end of the month to confirm); it could continue up to 1.28'ish' and then have a volatile Sunday night through Tuesday {shaking out smaller retail players} then stabilize througout the rest of June, building strength for a MULTI-MONTH advance off of the Monthly Cycle Low.

That is how trading a 'monthly' cycle high/low works. Same with Weekly & Daily respectively (it is all fractal).

I look forward to the next 10 market days of volatility; the planets have built up some torque: time to release the hounds!!

peace

hedvig

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  #1554 (permalink)
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@researcher247, while I can't get behind the astrology, I do appreciate you sharing information on targets, risk management, and long term views.

Sunday should be interesting. I am flat.

Mike

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  #1555 (permalink)
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Received an email from MBT this evening. Similar to the one from Oanda a couple days ago.


Quoting 
All eyes are on the Greek elections this Sunday and volatility is expected to be high in the currency markets. The volatility will not be isolated to the Euro but potentially all currency pairs as Central Banks around the globe are standing by to take action, if necessary. The volatility could trigger stop orders and could result in larger than normal spreads. We recommend you review your open orders and currency positions and adjust them accordingly.

VOLATILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE EXTREMELY HIGH AND PAIRS COULD GAP TO EXTREME LEVELS PRIOR TO THE MARKET OPEN, AFTER 5 PM EASTERN TIME, ON SUNDAY. GOING INTO SUNDAY WITH POSITIONS CONSTITUTES A HIGHER DEGREE OF RISK AND YOU SHOULD ENSURE ADEQUATE FUNDS IN YOUR ACCOUNT TO PREVENT A MARGIN RISK LIQUIDATION OR TO PREVENT YOUR ACCOUNT FROM GOING NEGATIVE.

Best regards,


MB Trading Futures

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  #1556 (permalink)
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Do you agree?


Bloomberg Video


Mike

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  #1557 (permalink)
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Question of the day:

Is the Greece Sunday vote already priced in? (negative reaction)

Mike

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  #1558 (permalink)
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Short look at the 6E chart:

Yesterday was a consolidation day, as the Euro tested the territory gained on Wednesday. During the European session it stuck to value, during the US session it moved up to the first resistance area.

Today the pivot range (blue range) is narrow indicating that there is a potential for a large move. However, with the election being scheduled for Sunday, that large move is probably due on Monday, not today. Today's picture is bullish:

this morning the EURUSD tested the area between support and resistance. As the chart shows all potential S/R lines well aligned, so S/R was easy to locate

Resistance:

-> Fibonacci Confluence line (blue)
-> Auction Range
-> 1st Jackson Zone resistance band
-> yesterday's high

Support:

-> Fibonacci Confluence line (red)
-> pivot range (ETH)
-> yesterday's VWAP (orange)
-> yesterday's settlement (yellow)


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Last edited by Fat Tails; June 15th, 2012 at 11:02 AM.
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  #1559 (permalink)
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ok last trade of this week, long @ 1.2612 tp 1.2786 sl 1.2500

byeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee


Last edited by Ali Huzaifa; June 15th, 2012 at 10:21 AM.
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  #1560 (permalink)
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I took a short last night off the VWAP/POC covered in the "teens," it was a nice trade, took little heat but it was SLOW and boring.

I jumped on this long this morning at the PIVOT, added at the -2SD level, had another order 2 ticks lower but didn't get filled. Sold approaching the VWAP. I'm done, but I'll probably be sitting here Sunday afternoon.

Have a great weekend guys, and forget about the Mighty Euro for a couple days.


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Last edited by Cashish; June 15th, 2012 at 01:01 PM.
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