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EURUSD 6E Euro
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EURUSD 6E Euro

  #1531 (permalink)
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Blown away by delta on Euro the last two days.

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  #1532 (permalink)
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researcher247 View Post
@Big Mike asked me to show a chart now and then.

I am bying 6E on pullbacks for a multi-week and MULTI-MONTH rally {yep; not a typo}.

My trading bias is long and I anticipate impulsive moves to the upside; so, I target better reward to risk on my long entries

Why? My cycle work (extremely accurate on weekly and monthly 'cycles') showed a MONTHLY cycle low for JUNE (right on time) and then, my work showed a WEEKLY (May 28th) cycle low shortly thereafter. My cycle work is showing a June 14th low; so I am buying retraces every single time (even on 60 minute charts--see attachment).

This crazy-ass currency is a buy for at least 3 months (for me and my trading 'swing/campaign' plan).

I will continue to buy more after new highs (on pullbacks after each new high)--mainly on daily and 8 hour and 60 minute charts.

Still busy as I expect CL to go UP now for several dollars for a short-term upmove (2-4 market days for now) and GC to continue to shake out 'week' longs as it continues to advance up on DEEP retraces off the last bottom for targets of 1682 and 1721 basis August Futures.

'trade what you see'

peace

hedvig


How does your strategy account for unprecedented soverign risk in the Eurozone at present? Greek elections on the weekend, spanish yields etc

EDIT: I re-read your post again to see if I could make any sense of it but I am going to call shenanigans on this. First of all the situation in Europe is so volatile, so out of the ordinary, that I don't see how any multi-year cycle could possibly be a valid trade signal at this present time.

Second of all I am looking at the monthly chart for the Euro and I can't see anything like what you are saying. I see a downtrend for the past 5 years with clear Lower Highs and Lower Lows - see chart below. There is big support level coming up at 1.16xx. Surely you are not suggesting that folks keeping buying lows with a potential 1000pip drawdown?

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Last edited by Traderji; June 13th, 2012 at 07:14 AM.
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  #1533 (permalink)
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Traderji View Post
How does your strategy account for unprecedented soverign risk in the Eurozone at present? Greek elections on the weekend, spanish yields etc

-------------
Fundamentals are ALREADY 'cooked' into any market. It is a chicken or egg question; for me, the question(s) are moot.

That written; I do NOT think about it--not 'try not to think about it'--I simply don't. I do not follow politics nor current events to an unusually large degree. No t.v. in my houses nor radio nor do I discuss politics. No offense intended. I realize this is absolutely quite odd; I get it.

This may come off as cocky or arrogant (assuredly it is not); my work is based on a high level of accuracy and having tracked over 1,700+ swingtrades in my career {27+ years full time} in Indices, Interest Rates, Metals, Currencies, Grains, Softs, Energies & International Markets & Sectors I confirm after the 1st several days or so whether my anticipated

a) short-term swing trades
b) longer-term campaign trades
c) Macro-term long-term multi-month to several fiscal quarter trades

swingtrades are on the right track.

How? Continued price action based on my cycle work AFTER my entry. I always use a mental stop(s) that I honor as if my next breath depended on it in case I am wrong. Yes; I am wrong a minority--a small minority of the time. That is trading, probability & statistics and position sizing are all my best friends!

Frequently, once I have confirmed continuing price action after entry with further analysis I then begin to focus a bit more on shorter-term scaling in and out and then back in again (@shorter-term profit targets and then waiting for another favorable entry on pullbacks within the 'now defined' trend) several times and at least 50% of the time with options strategies to augment my 'base'/core position.

I apologize if I am a trader that is unaware of 'news' or fundamentals. Incredulous at it sounds, I am unaware of day to day news announcements (except for my intraday trading and then only if it is a major monthly report such as NFP or EIA on the weekly report schedule, or PPI/CPI/GDP--a grand total of about 5 reports). Again, this is ONLY for intraday trading. I don't interpret the numbers.

This is contrarian in nature, I am a contrarian by nature--so it works for me. This was an excellent question. In my humble opinion NONE of the fundamentals mean anything; they are randomly controlled and adjusted and leaked and cooked and ???? in so many various and nefarious ways that it is utter f*ckery.

As long as price and volume move the markets (controlled by human emotions and behaviors); I am good with that. Even HFT doesn't worry me in the slightest. Until we are complete 'Terminator Robots' and humans are not allowed 'free will' to make a buy or sell decision, I have no worries.

peace

hedvig

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  #1534 (permalink)
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researcher247 View Post
-------------
Fundamentals are ALREADY 'cooked' into any market. It is a chicken or egg question; for me, the question(s) are moot.

That written; I do NOT think about it--not 'try not to think about it'--I simply don't. I do not follow politics nor current events to an unusually large degree. No t.v. in my houses nor radio nor do I discuss politics. No offense intended. I realize this is absolutely quite odd; I get it.

This may come off as cocky or arrogant (assuredly it is not); my work is based on a high level of accuracy and having tracked over 1,700+ swingtrades in my career {27+ years full time} in Indices, Interest Rates, Metals, Currencies, Grains, Softs, Energies & International Markets & Sectors I confirm after the 1st several days or so whether my anticipated

a) short-term swing trades
b) longer-term campaign trades
c) Macro-term long-term multi-month to several fiscal quarter trades

swingtrades are on the right track.

How? Continued price action based on my cycle work AFTER my entry. I always use a mental stop(s) that I honor as if my next breath depended on it in case I am wrong. Yes; I am wrong a minority--a small minority of the time. That is trading, probability & statistics and position sizing are all my best friends!

Frequently, once I have confirmed continuing price action after entry with further analysis I then begin to focus a bit more on shorter-term scaling in and out and then back in again (@shorter-term profit targets and then waiting for another favorable entry on pullbacks within the 'now defined' trend) several times and at least 50% of the time with options strategies to augment my 'base'/core position.

I apologize if I am a trader that is unaware of 'news' or fundamentals. Incredulous at it sounds, I am unaware of day to day news announcements (except for my intraday trading and then only if it is a major monthly report such as NFP or EIA on the weekly report schedule, or PPI/CPI/GDP--a grand total of about 5 reports). Again, this is ONLY for intraday trading. I don't interpret the numbers.

This is contrarian in nature, I am a contrarian by nature--so it works for me. This was an excellent question. In my humble opinion NONE of the fundamentals mean anything; they are randomly controlled and adjusted and leaked and cooked and ???? in so many various and nefarious ways that it is utter f*ckery.

As long as price and volume move the markets (controlled by human emotions and behaviors); I am good with that. Even HFT doesn't worry me in the slightest. Until we are complete 'Terminator Robots' and humans are not allowed 'free will' to make a buy or sell decision, I have no worries.

peace

hedvig



Oh Wow....seriously?

*slowly backs away*

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  #1535 (permalink)
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Traderji View Post
How does your strategy account for unprecedented soverign risk in the Eurozone at present? Greek elections on the weekend, spanish yields etc

EDIT: I re-read your post again to see if I could make any sense of it but I am going to call shenanigans on this. First of all the situation in Europe is so volatile, so out of the ordinary, that I don't see how any multi-year cycle could possibly be a valid trade signal at this present time.

Second of all I am looking at the monthly chart for the Euro and I can't see anything like what you are saying. I see a downtrend for the past 5 years with clear Lower Highs and Lower Lows - see chart below. There is big support level coming up at 1.16xx. Surely you are not suggesting that folks keeping buying lows with a potential 1000pip drawdown?

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

--------------
Hola again Traderji,

It is a MONTHLY cycle low and a WEEKLY cycle low (certainly not a quarterly/bi-annual/yearly or multi-yearly cycle). I will write again that I am looking for a multi-month 'stair-step' up rally in 6E. It is my trading view (plan) that the low is in (recent daily swing low on June 2nd).

My 'base'/core position was established from 1.2340 up to 1.2395 (66% of my size). The remainder is avg. price entry of 1.2467 (33% size). My risk:reward on this trade is approximately from 1:3 up to 1:9 Those are sufficient for me in my trading plan.

I use esoteric analysis quite a bit for these 'campaign' trades. It takes work to triangulate a low/high w/in 1 day in what seems like a sea of randomness and uncertainty. I closely follow the teachings of men before me; notably, Myles Wilson Walker, Bradley Cowan, Gann, Lars von Thienen & Jim Hurst {should be obvious by now}.

For precisely this reason I rarely post about my longer-term/mid-term swingtrades. People get a bit emotional. Ahh--that is part of the analysis (hint, hint).

Finally, it is NOT necessary to use my approach to identify swing highs and lows within non-linear cycles. I will be showing @GaryD a simple swingtrading method he can use later this fall that is at least 75%+ accurate using nothing but indicators he has in Ninjatrader; I think he'll be tickled. However, I'll let him write about it here if he wants to--he is kind of a prolific journaler.

Regardless, I have to get back to trading. Thanks for the questions again.

Good trading to you!

'trade what you see'

peace

hedvig


Last edited by researcher247; June 13th, 2012 at 07:30 AM.
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  #1536 (permalink)
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Weekly downtrend , sure looks like it . Bullish weekly BAR , sure looks like it . I'm still long here .

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  #1537 (permalink)
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https://futures.io/news-current-events/20992-due-extreme-volatility-some-market-analysts-foresee.html#post231233

Mike

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

Need help?
1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first.
2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses.
3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make.
4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance.
5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers.
6)
Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.

If you want
to support our community, become an Elite Member (see why)

Follow me on Twitter Visit my Facebook Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
  #1538 (permalink)
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hows every thing going on?

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  #1539 (permalink)
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Well as my friend @researcher247 says - Just don't think about it. Best not to worry about these things.

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  #1540 (permalink)
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Traderji View Post
Well as my friend @researcher247 says - Just don't think about it. Best not to worry about these things.


Best to never worry , it solves nothing .

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