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EURUSD 6E Euro
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EURUSD 6E Euro

  #111 (permalink)
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Haven't gone to bed yet. Re-shorted the Euro and just exited at S1 which was hit, a very good day...

I hope everyone did well. With regards to following me, I am honored - but a little concerned too. Don't copy me. The best thing I can hope for is to demonstrate that simple charts yield best results, not charts overloaded with conflicting indicators that cause you to be comatose.

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Here is the chart. You can see we finally started getting some conviction on the short side. Things have been relatively sideways for days now on delta, but today we are definitely looking to breakdown out of that range the way things are progressing.

Mike

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  #112 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
What do you think?

Mike

Just came back on the net and my trading desk ... I've been away for some hours today.

What do I think ..... deep into the 33s .... it's already hit 3380 and bounced up .... it's gonna be deep down to the 33s.

Lolu

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Last edited by lolu; September 22nd, 2011 at 11:48 AM.
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  #113 (permalink)
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Well it would seem the overall trend is still down. Obviously that means we may go up a bit first, then resume the downward move, or we may go straight down. Who knows. But I would lean towards only shorts for the time being.

BTW, if anyone knows why my volume counter countdown (top right, white area) has mysteriously stopped working, and won't come back.... let me know... I may have to exit Sierra and reload.

Mike

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  #114 (permalink)
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Compared with ES and CL the 6E looks quite "strong". Breakout not impossible...
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  #115 (permalink)
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Big Mike, here is a situation which i find very confusing: price falling like a knife while the CD is staying in a horizontal channel. What am i missing ?

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  #116 (permalink)
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trendisyourfriend View Post
Big Mike, here is a situation which i find very confusing: price falling like a knife while the CD is staying in a horizontal channel. What am i missing ?

Cumulative Delta is relative to current volume. So the post-US close to pre-London open is substantially less volume than the RTH cash session, and any moves are 'relative' during that time. Hope that makes sense.

I've not tried building a chart that builds CDV only on RTH sessions, it might be worth a look.

Also that period and that entire day really, and day before it, were all relatively flat for delta. Could be an unwinding of positions or an accumulation, with no real directional intent or what I call "conviction". Maybe @FulcrumTrader can explain better.

Mike

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  #117 (permalink)
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I know its been said before but CD is just trades hitting the bid or offer. This does not have to result in price moving in line with the CD. Mike is making many assumptions about order flow which may or may not have CD implications. There are many many more facets to this than at first sight.


trendisyourfriend View Post
Big Mike, here is a situation which i find very confusing: price falling like a knife while the CD is staying in a horizontal channel. What am i missing ?



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  #118 (permalink)
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Let's use the Cumulative Delta thread to discuss cumulative delta:
https://futures.io/elite-circle/11179-cumulative-delta-volume-trading.html

But I look at both the updowntick "pressure" (frequency of hitting the bid/ask) in combination with the actual volume delta (how much volume @ bid/ask), and I am also of the belief that institutional market participants are using a lot of market orders, not limit orders, for most of their trading volume.

That said, I'd like to hear from you how you would trade the Euro. Post some charts and trades.

Mike

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  #119 (permalink)
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terratec View Post
Compared with ES and CL the 6E looks quite "strong". Breakout not impossible...

Yes maybe. We've made several HH+HL now. While I am not looking to take a long right now, I would wait to take a short until we have a LH+LL combo.

Mike

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  #120 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
Let's use the Cumulative Delta thread to discuss cumulative delta:
https://futures.io/elite-circle/11179-cumulative-delta-volume-trading.html

But I look at both the updowntick "pressure" (frequency of hitting the bid/ask) in combination with the actual volume delta (how much volume @ bid/ask), and I am also of the belief that institutional market participants are using a lot of market orders, not limit orders, for most of their trading volume.

That said, I'd like to hear from you how you would trade the Euro. Post some charts and trades.

Mike

Mike, dont get me wrong im not saying what your doing is wrong! just that you obviously have experiance looking at this and there are factors involved in your reading of price as well, ie this isnt a short cut to $$.

Personally i can see just one high probability trade today, short circa 1.3500 (spot) ( not sure if your on sport or futs)

There was nice fib confluance on the 15 min (my main intraday tf) plus a vaccum and good price structure this has just made the initial tgt at 3448 and showing a small reaction there.

Worth noting we had a ultra high vol possible exhaustion spike below 3400 earlier ( as seen on the h1) that has given rise to the rise to 3500. Unfortunatly for me i couldnt find an entry on my lower t/f ( typically 3 min)

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