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EURUSD 6E Euro
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EURUSD 6E Euro

  #1111 (permalink)
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Euro weekly chart

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  #1112 (permalink)
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monpere View Post
There are several schools of thoughts on this. Those who continually analyze the market to find opportunities and determine a reason to enter or stay out of the market, and those who look for methodical pre-defined patterns to enter the market. You should tread carefully, as I believe needing to always have a reason for why the market moved from A to B, or needing a reason for why a trade worked of failed, may lead to some psychological traps. This may be a sign that you need to be right about the market. You need to be careful not to get in that frame of mind. What is important is that when you are right, you make more money then you lose, when you are wrong overall. Plenty of traders are successful, even though they are wrong more times then they are right.

Personally, beyond basic market fundamentals, I think the reasons why a market does what it does is immaterial to me. What is important, is that it does what it does cyclically, continually, and repeatedly, with a signature that can recognize, measure and act upon. I let the pundits on CNBC pontificate as to the reasons why.

Thanks monpere - your cautions are well taken. I do have an issue with "needing to be right" and I agree that trying to understand the market can amplify this "psychological trap" - I monitor myself to minimize this and sometimes I do better than others. I read the market based on technical analysis but this practice means something different to different traders. I use technical analysis (the volume and chart patterns) to give me clues as to what traders are trying to do, what they might be waiting for to act, when a "goal" may be accomplished, etc. Ultimately I place bets - sometimes those bets pay off, sometimes they don't. Mostly I try to understand the context so I know which kinds of trades are more likely to be successful given my understanding of the context. I'm not trying to understand the "why" in the sense of cnbc or fundamentals but in the sense of what forced traders to act, when did they give up, where were they satisfied. I don't think you can necessarily know these things - and I don't think that placing a winning trade means you were "right" - I just think that this type of analysis gives me a basis on which to place bets, one that I feel is effective.

I will note that the pattern which I described as a final flag and the "last gasp of the move" took the market to 3488 and it has fallen back to ~3400 since then. Does this mean I was "right" in my description of what took place? I don't know. I just want to use the type of analysis I describe as the basis for placing bets because it makes sense to me based on my understanding of how markets work.

Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert
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  #1113 (permalink)
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trendisyourfriend View Post
Don't look for a reason in technical or fundamental analysis or outside events as price is not a true representation of these things. Rather it is a representation of the sentiment of the crowd which is based upon flawed analysis of market information and irrational decisions. Price movement is based on psychology. This is where you'll find the actuality of "why" a trade worked or "why" it didn't. If you can spot on a chart where group of traders will be under stress or feel desperation or some sense of urgency to act then you may find "why" a trade worked or "why" it didn't.

"The most effective analysis is not analysis of price, but rather analysis of trader decisions" - Lance Begg

I agree with you TIYF - however, I also think that volume and price patterns can tell you about the things I mentioned in my reply to monpere. If you try to understand the underlying phenomenology (traders actions) based on their signature (volume and price patterns) and you then piece together a model for making decisions which results in higher expectation for your trading bets, you can be successful. Of course, as monpere pointed out, there are many approaches which can be profitable - each with their own pros and cons.

Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert
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  #1114 (permalink)
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Looking for a swing short off the 13500 - 13550 zone.

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  #1115 (permalink)
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rassi View Post
Looking for a swing short off the 13500 - 13550 zone.

You almost made it there, Rassi

Bernake ruined your good plan.


AJ
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"Life On The Edge of SR"
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  #1116 (permalink)
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rassi View Post
Looking for a swing short off the 13500 - 13550 zone.

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Good call. It's a classic double top divergence, and triggering on a cluster of tiny narrow range bars for great risk/reward. Too bad it missed the the numbers you were looking for by a wee bit. Might still get back up there though.


Last edited by monpere; February 29th, 2012 at 02:15 PM.
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  #1117 (permalink)
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Another nearly trade! I was looking for a spike of the LTRO news but it didn't get high enough for me. If it does get up there I will still be looking to short depending on how it gets there.

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  #1118 (permalink)
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rassi View Post
Another nearly trade! I was looking for a spike of the LTRO news but it didn't get high enough for me. If it does get up there I will still be looking to short depending on how it gets there.

I wasn't as optimistic as you, I took longs and shorts after the LTRO announcement. LTRO, TARP, QE3 been there done that! It was a strange day for me, the blue circles are targets I had orders sitting on. Price traded on that price but I didn't get filled. Seemed like either the entry or exit of every trade for awhile. I was holding a long wanting 1.3472 when the speech got underway. Actually it took awhile to fall, I dumped the long trade and sold the pivot targeting the buy number. When I scrolled down on the chart I saw Yesterday's low. I drug the target down to 90 but price pulled back first and didn't trade at 90. I was screaming by now, I just went through this on almost every trade I've made. Price backed off to the buy number (on one minute chart) then dropped and filled me. This was enough for me. I shut down everything and called it a day.

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  #1119 (permalink)
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EURO Update

As Monpere previously stated we had a classic double top divergence. Given that the five week weekly range is around 304 points I wonder if we now have that range about set but as they say anything can happen.

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EURUSD 6E Euro-eu29feb_2.png  
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  #1120 (permalink)
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Diverging the other way. Time to tighten the stops from the short, if you captured part of the nearly 8:1 MFE so far. If reversed to long, I'd be at break even stop at this point, since we got to 2:1 MFE on the long side.


Last edited by monpere; March 1st, 2012 at 01:05 PM.
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