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EURUSD 6E Euro
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EURUSD 6E Euro

  #1101 (permalink)
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trendisyourfriend View Post
If HL's are still made then you can only assume the trend is intact and the higher probability move is still to the upside. As simple as that.

Thanks. My approach is to try to understand the underlying dynamics of the price movement. I want to understand how the market gets moved and what the real life events are that move price. It may be a fool's errand - it may, in fact, be better to not try to understand anything and just keep buying pullbacks until it stops working - but my opinion is that to gain a durable edge one must strive to have some insight into the actuality of "why" a trade worked or "why" it didn't. Thus my question about opinions of what happened ...

Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert
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  #1102 (permalink)
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Surly View Post
Thanks. My approach is to try to understand the underlying dynamics of the price movement. I want to understand how the market gets moved and what the real life events are that move price. It may be a fool's errand - it may, in fact, be better to not try to understand anything and just keep buying pullbacks until it stops working - but my opinion is that to gain a durable edge one must strive to have some insight into the actuality of "why" a trade worked or "why" it didn't. Thus my question about opinions of what happened ...

I do not know your timeframe and not sure if you are a scapler but when I look at a chart like the one attached I am asking myself some questions: do I want to be a buyer, and if so why and where, and then what would invalidate that reasonging. In the case of being on sell side. I am asking why do I want to be a seller, what on my longer timeframe chart tells me theri is evidence of rejection. Unless I can give solid evidence to that fact I am sitting on my hands as I know I am my worst enemy.

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EURUSD 6E Euro-eu240m.png  
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  #1103 (permalink)
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Surly View Post
Thanks. My approach is to try to understand the underlying dynamics of the price movement. I want to understand how the market gets moved and what the real life events are that move price. It may be a fool's errand - it may, in fact, be better to not try to understand anything and just keep buying pullbacks until it stops working - but my opinion is that to gain a durable edge one must strive to have some insight into the actuality of "why" a trade worked or "why" it didn't. Thus my question about opinions of what happened ...

There are several schools of thoughts on this. Those who continually analyze the market to find opportunities and determine a reason to enter or stay out of the market, and those who look for methodical pre-defined patterns to enter the market. You should tread carefully, as I believe needing to always have a reason for why the market moved from A to B, or needing a reason for why a trade worked of failed, may lead to some psychological traps. This may be a sign that you need to be right about the market. You need to be careful not to get in that frame of mind. What is important is that when you are right, you make more money then you lose, when you are wrong overall. Plenty of traders are successful, even though they are wrong more times then they are right.

Personally, beyond basic market fundamentals, I think the reasons why a market does what it does is immaterial to me. What is important, is that it does what it does cyclically, continually, and repeatedly, with a signature that can recognize, measure and act upon. I let the pundits on CNBC pontificate as to the reasons why.

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  #1104 (permalink)
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Surly View Post
Thanks. My approach is to try to understand the underlying dynamics of the price movement. I want to understand how the market gets moved and what the real life events are that move price. It may be a fool's errand - it may, in fact, be better to not try to understand anything and just keep buying pullbacks until it stops working - but my opinion is that to gain a durable edge one must strive to have some insight into the actuality of "why" a trade worked or "why" it didn't. Thus my question about opinions of what happened ...

Don't look for a reason in technical or fundamental analysis or outside events as price is not a true representation of these things. Rather it is a representation of the sentiment of the crowd which is based upon flawed analysis of market information and irrational decisions. Price movement is based on psychology. This is where you'll find the actuality of "why" a trade worked or "why" it didn't. If you can spot on a chart where group of traders will be under stress or feel desperation or some sense of urgency to act then you may find "why" a trade worked or "why" it didn't.

"The most effective analysis is not analysis of price, but rather analysis of trader decisions" - Lance Begg

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  #1105 (permalink)
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Surly View Post
I shorted the euro (my market is molasses today - soy) up here. I noticed an offer of 1200 cars at 3470 - I'm curious if any of you euro guys see this sort of thing where there's a giant order that sticks around and whether if affects the market at all. Normally I ignore the order sizes in the DOM but when I see something that big that sticks around when price approaches it, I take notice.

Anyway - I may get blown out here but this immediate move does seem to be running out of steam...

@Surly I don't know what you have for a trading station (data feeds, charting & analytic programs), but at the end of the day (not sure of exact time) we can compare what we saw, or what we thought we saw, with what really happened by looking at the T&S (time & sales) Report posted on the CME Website.

Here's a link to the Euro T&S Page, EUR / USD

As I write this post the CME site seems to be a little quirky, good luck.

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  #1106 (permalink)
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Cashish View Post
@Surly I don't know what you have for a trading station (data feeds, charting & analytic programs), but at the end of the day (not sure of exact time) we can compare what we saw, or what we thought we saw, with what really happened by looking at the T&S (time & sales) Report posted on the CME Website.

Here's a link to the Euro T&S Page, EUR / USD

As I write this post the CME site seems to be a little quirky, good luck.

Yes, they are having issues post hack by anonymous group. V for vendetta

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  #1107 (permalink)
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Surly View Post
Thanks. My approach is to try to understand the underlying dynamics of the price movement. I want to understand how the market gets moved and what the real life events are that move price. It may be a fool's errand - it may, in fact, be better to not try to understand anything and just keep buying pullbacks until it stops working - but my opinion is that to gain a durable edge one must strive to have some insight into the actuality of "why" a trade worked or "why" it didn't. Thus my question about opinions of what happened ...

Well here we are again, what moves prices and why....then comes the second part, does it matter!?

The reality is this, the 6e is tied to the spot fx eur-usd. This spot Market is used by institutions for many reasons. The least of these for speculative directional trade. Ultimately size wins out and the Market follows.

The second part of the question is down to a traders individual mindset. Personally I could not trade off the back of something that I could not understand or rationalise. Those that can exploit technical analasis anomalies for the period of time that they are working in the Market will almost certainly not give two hoots about the why.

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  #1108 (permalink)
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Hi fellas, Good Monday morning to you.

I've been shorting this thing all night, so I've sent in a "long" soldier. I think this market is going to turn here, and not test 1.3350. I'm long from the Buy Number with a stop (right now) at 1.3358 (come and get me!!)

This first chart is a volume profile that includes Friday's price movements. If this market gets some legs under it I could see it clawing it's way back to 1.3450. I can't sit here much longer so (I want to) take profit at 1.3403

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This chart is the VP from the Sunday evening open.

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Last edited by Cashish; February 27th, 2012 at 10:47 AM. Reason: stop price
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  #1109 (permalink)
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took a small long trade

Error retrieving image, please check URL again

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  #1110 (permalink)
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That POC shift to the downside gave me a little concern, then it ticked up and played along with me.

I'm done and happy

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