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EURUSD 6E Euro
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EURUSD 6E Euro

  #1001 (permalink)
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Was not sure if i would post it in the Random Lines thread or here but finally decided to post it here:

Random, Coincidence or illusion ?
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  #1002 (permalink)
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trendisyourfriend View Post
Was not sure if i would post it in the Random Lines thread or here but finally decided to post it here:

Random, Coincidence or illusion ?
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Aw c'mon dude you let my big secret out....

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  #1003 (permalink)
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monpere View Post
Yeah, and here's how you trade it according to monpere. There seems to be much more analysis, then identifiable and repeatable trading ideas in the thread. It'd be cool to see more of this kind of entries from others. By the way, what is the indicator at the bottom?

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here you go

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  #1004 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post

What might it do next?

A great deal of support at the 3025-50 area. If we come down and find support, it seems extremely likely we will bounce a bit and come back up into this consolidation trading range we've been in for almost 3 weeks (3000 to 3300).

However, if sellers really pick up momentum and we break 3000, I think it could cause an accelerated move down to 2700.

Based on the news (which I try to ignore as much as I can), I would say this "holding pattern" (trading range) is the most likely scenario for the time being.

Edit: Oops should be "HL or LL depending on context" on that first one, type-o.

Mike

I can definitely see a test of the 1.3027 area again now that we've failed on the move higher (we're pretty much there). 1.2975 would be a half way back area but the big picture is still a downward trend. If we can break the swing low, I could see a test of 1.2450 - 1.25 which is a low volume area. A rejection from this level would create a bullish divergence on the MACD and may get more buyers on board. Then again, if we get some EU defaults, lower prices are possible. This move up appeared to be a test run to see who is willing to get on board. Any bounce from here will also create a bullish divergence which could get more buyers involved. Very tricky situation but I'd lean towards a bearish bias until we see the 1.25 area hit which is obviously more of a big picture perspective.

The USD is showing some nice strength again today having broken out of it's small bearish channel. The obvious target there would be another test of the recent swing high which works into 6E's price action as well.

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EURUSD 6E Euro-6e-03-12-240-min-2_14_2012.jpg   EURUSD 6E Euro-2012-02-14-6e.jpg   EURUSD 6E Euro-2012-02-14-usd.jpg  
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  #1005 (permalink)
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trendisyourfriend View Post
Was not sure if i would post it in the Random Lines thread or here but finally decided to post it here:

Random, Coincidence or illusion ?

The answer is random, coincidence and illusion!

But there is a simpler idea. Have a look at the noise bands and the volatility bands. The average daily range of EURUSD was 135 pips over the last 10 days and 138 pips over the last 20 days.

Every day the same traders are sitting in front of their screens, and when they finally all agree, the move is over. That's the rule of the game.

I guess, I should not have posted this, now everybody knows it.

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  #1006 (permalink)
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Euro Update

Here we go

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EURUSD 6E Euro-eu_14feb.png  
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  #1007 (permalink)
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Fat Tails View Post
The answer is random, coincidence and illusion!

But there is a simpler idea. Have a look at the noise bands and the volatility bands. The average daily range of EURUSD was 135 pips over the last 10 days and 138 pips over the last 20 days.

Every day the same traders are sitting in front of their screens, and when they finally all agree, the move is over. That's the rule of the game.

I guess, I should not have posted this, now everybody knows it.

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@fattails

What session are you using for your Noise bands mine seem different

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  #1008 (permalink)
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Trafford View Post
@fattails

What session are you using for your Noise bands mine seem different

The noise bands can be applied to the ETH or RTH session. The chart shows RTH noise bands.

The RTH noise bands depend on the template used. The template per contract specifications for 6E would divide the trading day into three segments:

-> pre-session 5:00 PM - 7:20 AM CT
-> RTH session 7:20 - 2:00 PM CT
-> after-session 2:00 PM - 4:00 PM CT

Looking at the FOREX markets, which are a lot larger compared to 6E I do not think that this session template makes sense. I prefer to divide the trading day into an Asian, a European and a US session.
Therefore I use different trading hours

-> Asian session 5:00 PM - 1:00 AM CT
-> European session 1:00 AM - 7:20 AM CT
-> US session 7:20 AM - 4:00 PM CT

Therefore my third session, which I used for the noise bands, is actually the extended RTH session, representing the US session. As I use ETH pivots for all currency futures, the use of this modified template does not pose any problem for other indicators.

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  #1009 (permalink)
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Euro 4 Hour Timeframe Perpsective

Four hour chart showing potential retest of prior weekly lows are looming

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EURUSD 6E Euro-eu_4hr_15feb.png  
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  #1010 (permalink)
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I would suggest the 3PDH that has long been in the forming looks complete at 12975, where it would go next is the next item to wait for (the usd would likely find resitance at 80.5ish, will the 6e turn up appropriately?
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