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Eur/chf - Rare opportunity ?
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Eur/chf - Rare opportunity ?

  #1 (permalink)
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Eur/chf - Rare opportunity ?

The SnB said they'll defend the 1.2 level on eur/chf at all cost. To me, this is probably the best opportunity in years to make abnormal return in a relative short timeframe with the rare use of heavy leverage.

I'm surprised to see little talk of this rare opportunity to buy with the SnB.

Are you trading this scenario yourself ?

"We may not be able to control the wind, but we can always adjust our sails"

Last edited by aediaz1; September 15th, 2011 at 07:03 AM.
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What's your action plan ? trading against or with the SNB ?

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TheTrend View Post
What's your action plan ? trading against or with the SNB ?

Buying with.

"We may not be able to control the wind, but we can always adjust our sails"
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aediaz1 View Post
Buying with.

You're probably right, the chart calls also for a reversal.

I'm not sure if I feel OK to take the money from the poor Swiss citizen who will ultimately pay for that

Plus UBS already lost 2 Billions today !

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TheTrend View Post
You're probably right, the chart calls also for a reversal.

I'm not sure if I feel OK to take the money from the poor Swiss citizen who will ultimately pay for that

Plus UBS already lost 2 Billions today !


Haha, I'll have to live with that the rest of my life

Yeah, I read about that. Hard to believe how some people run their organization.

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aediaz1 View Post
Buying with.

But what if the SNB can't hold the price target that they've communicated? It's not like that didn't happened before, despite throwing billions at it.

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Jura View Post
But what if the SNB can't hold the price target that they've communicated? It's not like that didn't happened before, despite throwing billions at it.

Not only, limiting the market is never a good idea, same Swiss policy was made in 1978, with a consequent increase of inflation and economy crash, in addition loss of interest from big player as the currency fluctuation was limited. CHF is seen as a refuge currency only if it's freely traded. As a recent example look at the ban of EU banks short selling, did it stop their fall down ?

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Jura View Post
But what if the SNB can't hold the price target that they've communicated? It's not like that didn't happened before, despite throwing billions at it.

This is very true and a risk I have accepted.

I believe this scenario differs a lot from BoE scenario back in the early 90s. As part of the ERM-deal, they had to intervene if the currency fluctuate more than 6%! So they had to defend that level, which in reality meant nothing it was just an artificial level they had to keep up. Compared to today's situation with the strong chf which they HAVE to do something about or they will suffer a lot.

So the motivation is slightly different; BoE intervened because of a stupid agreement they never should have entered in the first place while SnB intervene because they have to save their own economy.

"We may not be able to control the wind, but we can always adjust our sails"
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Jura View Post
But what if the SNB can't hold the price target that they've communicated? It's not like that didn't happened before, despite throwing billions at it.

Maybe I'm wrong, but these are completely different situations.

BoE tried to keep the pound from falling, which means it had to buy the GBP, so it was limited by its foreign reserves.

SNB wants to keep CHF from rising, so it needs to sell CHF and buy foreign currency. SNB can "print" unlimited amounts of CHF if it chooses.

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