NexusFi: Find Your Edge


Home Menu

 





Eur/chf - Rare opportunity ?


Discussion in Currencies

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one aediaz1 with 14 posts (2 thanks)
    2. looks_two terratec with 3 posts (2 thanks)
    3. looks_3 Cogito ergo sum with 2 posts (0 thanks)
    4. looks_4 aligator with 2 posts (0 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one Messk with 1 thanks per post
    2. looks_two terratec with 0.7 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 Cerberus with 0.5 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 aediaz1 with 0.1 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 10,240 views
    2. thumb_up 6 thanks given
    3. group 8 followers
    1. forum 32 posts
    2. attach_file 1 attachments




 
Search this Thread

Eur/chf - Rare opportunity ?

  #11 (permalink)
 
Cerberus's Avatar
 Cerberus 
Vancouver Canada
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TOS, IB
Trading: es ym etf's
Posts: 35 since Feb 2011
Thanks Given: 24
Thanks Received: 26


Messk View Post
SNB can "print" unlimited amounts of CHF if it chooses.


Not so sure about this. #1 priority of SNB is still inflation control.
Apparently hedgfunds are placing bets against the SNB
See WJS "Hedge Funds Plot Assault on Swiss Franc Ceiling"

The fx market is just too big. Hildebrand cannot accumulate
unlimited amounts of EUR although that's what the headlines
want you to believe. Once the SNB balance sheet looks
really ugly the headlines will change and political pressure
will kick in.

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on NexusFi?
Exit Strategy
NinjaTrader
Deepmoney LLM
Elite Quantitative GenAI/LLM
The space time continuum and the dynamics of a financial …
Emini and Emicro Index
New Micros: Ultra 10-Year & Ultra T-Bond -- Live Now
Treasury Notes and Bonds
Ninja Mobile Trader VPS (ninjamobiletrader.com)
Trading Reviews and Vendors
 
Best Threads (Most Thanked)
in the last 7 days on NexusFi
Get funded firms 2023/2024 - Any recommendations or word …
60 thanks
Funded Trader platforms
37 thanks
NexusFi site changelog and issues/problem reporting
24 thanks
GFIs1 1 DAX trade per day journal
22 thanks
The Program
19 thanks
  #12 (permalink)
 
GoldStandard's Avatar
 GoldStandard 
arizona
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: rolling my own
Trading: ES,CL,GC,6E
Posts: 205 since Oct 2009
Thanks Given: 324
Thanks Received: 191


aediaz1 View Post
The SnB said they'll defend the 1.2 level on eur/chf at all cost. To me, this is probably the best opportunity in years to make abnormal return in a relative short timeframe with the rare use of heavy leverage.

I'm surprised to see little talk of this rare opportunity to buy with the SnB.

Are you trading this scenario yourself ?


I'm planning to do some small buying next time eur/chf reaches its recent lows. I'm not certain the SNB can keep the CHF from rising forever, but I'm willing to bet they can do it for some period of time.

Reply With Quote
  #13 (permalink)
 
aediaz1's Avatar
 aediaz1 
Oslo
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: Forex
Posts: 57 since Apr 2011
Thanks Given: 20
Thanks Received: 39


I was close to giving up waiting for a good move upwards before it came out of nowhere today, luckily.

Hope some of you guys made some profits on the move.

"We may not be able to control the wind, but we can always adjust our sails"
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
  #14 (permalink)
 
aligator's Avatar
 aligator 
Las Vegas, NV
Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Abacus, Slide Rule, HP-65
Trading: Futures, Stocks, Options
Posts: 3,615 since Aug 2010
Thanks Given: 1,071
Thanks Received: 5,988


aediaz1 View Post
The SnB said they'll defend the 1.2 level on eur/chf at all cost. To me, this is probably the best opportunity in years to make abnormal return in a relative short timeframe with the rare use of heavy leverage.

I'm surprised to see little talk of this rare opportunity to buy with the SnB.

Are you trading this scenario yourself ?

Not sure about eur/chf, but I can tell CHF is in trouble against USD. Reason: A good chunk of money stolen during US (and now the Wolrd) economy collapse found its way into Swiss banks. Now that the bottom is falling off inside the Euro zone, the thieves are getting nervous and bringing the money back to the safe keepers in USA, thus the fall of CHF. See the weekly chart attached. The CHF has been high for too long piling up scare and stolen money that is now leaving Swiss.

The bottom line, CHF will not, and does not have the capacity, to remain the piggy bank for the rest of the world, so watch out!

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	usdchf - 9-20-2011.png
Views:	221
Size:	48.5 KB
ID:	49693  
Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote
  #15 (permalink)
 
aediaz1's Avatar
 aediaz1 
Oslo
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: Forex
Posts: 57 since Apr 2011
Thanks Given: 20
Thanks Received: 39


aligator View Post
Not sure about eur/chf, but I can tell CHF is in trouble against USD. Reason: A good chunk of money stolen during US (and now the Wolrd) economy collapse found its way into Swiss banks. Now that the bottom is falling off inside the Euro zone, the thieves are getting nervous and bringing the money back to the safe keepers in USA, thus the fall of CHF. See the weekly chart attached. The CHF has been high for too long piling up scare and stolen money that is now leaving Swiss.

The bottom line, CHF will not, and does not have the capacity, to remain the piggy bank for the rest of the world, so watch out!

To my information, this was caused by SnB intervention. I can't imagine "thief's" moved chf 1000's of pips.

"We may not be able to control the wind, but we can always adjust our sails"
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
  #16 (permalink)
 terratec 
Zurich Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: IB
Trading: ES, 6E, CL
Posts: 403 since Sep 2009
Thanks Given: 64
Thanks Received: 515


aligator View Post
...that is now leaving Swiss.

This would mean that a SNB wish would come true...And they would not need the €-fix.
But I didn't see any trucks with money leaving here today...

Reply With Quote
  #17 (permalink)
 
aligator's Avatar
 aligator 
Las Vegas, NV
Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Abacus, Slide Rule, HP-65
Trading: Futures, Stocks, Options
Posts: 3,615 since Aug 2010
Thanks Given: 1,071
Thanks Received: 5,988


aediaz1 View Post
To my information, this was caused by SnB intervention. I can't imagine "thief's" moved chf 1000's of pips.

It was just the SnB reacting. They will react again and again until run out of dough and start self-preservation.


terratec View Post
This would mean that a SNB wish would come true...And they would not need the €-fix.
But I didn't see any trucks with money leaving here today...

You didn't see any truckloads coming in either (hint: they do it at night).

Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote
  #18 (permalink)
 
aediaz1's Avatar
 aediaz1 
Oslo
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: Forex
Posts: 57 since Apr 2011
Thanks Given: 20
Thanks Received: 39


aligator View Post
It was just the SnB reacting. They will react again and again until run out of dough and start self-preservation.



You didn't see any truckloads coming in either (hint: they do it at night).

I assumed you where joking about the thief-story lol.


Reacting as in intervention, correct.

"We may not be able to control the wind, but we can always adjust our sails"
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
  #19 (permalink)
 terratec 
Zurich Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: IB
Trading: ES, 6E, CL
Posts: 403 since Sep 2009
Thanks Given: 64
Thanks Received: 515

SNB will defend the 1.20 level. A test will come with the end of the Greek drama.
There were some rumors of moving the level to 1.25 (which would be a bad R/R).

This interview with the Swiss Finance Minister could slow down this speculations. (Don't know why she said that, as she has very hard reelections coming up in a few weeks).
Interesting how CHF will react on Monday.

https://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/01/us-switzerland-finmin-idUSTRE79014320111001

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #20 (permalink)
 
aediaz1's Avatar
 aediaz1 
Oslo
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: Forex
Posts: 57 since Apr 2011
Thanks Given: 20
Thanks Received: 39



terratec View Post
SNB will defend the 1.20 level. A test will come with the end of the Greek drama.
There were some rumors of moving the level to 1.25 (which would be a bad R/R).

This interview with the Swiss Finance Minister could slow down this speculations. (Don't know why she said that, as she has very hard reelections coming up in a few weeks).
Interesting how CHF will react on Monday.

SNB's franc cap at right level for now: Swiss finance minister | Reuters

Thanks for sharing those links. That would be an interesting scenario if they did move the level to 1.25. I only hope we could get nearer 1.2 again

"We may not be able to control the wind, but we can always adjust our sails"
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote




Last Updated on November 12, 2012


© 2024 NexusFi™, s.a., All Rights Reserved.
Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama City, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada)
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
About Us - Contact Us - Site Rules, Acceptable Use, and Terms and Conditions - Privacy Policy - Downloads - Top
no new posts