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Eur/chf - Rare opportunity ?
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Eur/chf - Rare opportunity ?

  #31 (permalink)
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I agree, this indeed a unique asymmetric risk reward opportunity. I am long the EUR/CHF since the beginning of June.
MS does believe that the floor will break however...

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  #32 (permalink)
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Cogito ergo sum View Post
MS does believe that the floor will break however...

What do you mean with "floor"?

1.20?
or even 1.00?

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  #33 (permalink)
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uexkuell View Post
What do you mean with "floor"?

1.20?
or even 1.00?


The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has set a minimum exchange rate of 1.20 francs to the euro, saying the current value of the franc is a threat to the economy. The SNB said it would enforce the minimum rate by buying foreign currency in unlimited quantities.

(Switzerland: The Other Currency Manipulator - Bloomberg)
(SNB Foreign-Currency Holdings Hit Record on Intervention - Bloomberg)


Quoting 
The 1.20 EUR/CHF floor is likely to hold over the next few months as the ‘Draghi put’ continues to ease euro area tail risks, reducing capital flight into Switzerland, says Morgan Stanley. However MS believes that the 1.20 level will ultimately be broken as the SNB comes under pressure from domestic factors and tensions in the euro area re-emerge.

"We believe that the current EUR rebound will be temporary. The Draghi put will likely increase political complacency and political tensions in the euro area will re-emerge, in our view. As such, we believe that investors will once again seek safety in Switzerland, pressuring the 1.20 EUR/CHF level, MS adds.

"Furthermore, the SNB’s balance sheet has ballooned, and the majority of its holdings remain in EUR, creating balance sheet risk which could threaten the SNB’s credibility. As such, the bank may find it difficult to continue to accumulate FX assets at the same pace as before. We therefore believe that EUR/CHF will fall below 1.20 next year," MS concludes.

Source: eFXnews : EUR/CHF Will Fall Below The 1.20 Floor Next Year - Morgan Stanley

I hope this anwsers your question.

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