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Eur/chf - Rare opportunity ?
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Eur/chf - Rare opportunity ?

  #11 (permalink)
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Messk View Post
SNB can "print" unlimited amounts of CHF if it chooses.


Not so sure about this. #1 priority of SNB is still inflation control.
Apparently hedgfunds are placing bets against the SNB
See WJS "Hedge Funds Plot Assault on Swiss Franc Ceiling"

The fx market is just too big. Hildebrand cannot accumulate
unlimited amounts of EUR although that's what the headlines
want you to believe. Once the SNB balance sheet looks
really ugly the headlines will change and political pressure
will kick in.

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  #12 (permalink)
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aediaz1 View Post
The SnB said they'll defend the 1.2 level on eur/chf at all cost. To me, this is probably the best opportunity in years to make abnormal return in a relative short timeframe with the rare use of heavy leverage.

I'm surprised to see little talk of this rare opportunity to buy with the SnB.

Are you trading this scenario yourself ?


I'm planning to do some small buying next time eur/chf reaches its recent lows. I'm not certain the SNB can keep the CHF from rising forever, but I'm willing to bet they can do it for some period of time.

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  #13 (permalink)
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I was close to giving up waiting for a good move upwards before it came out of nowhere today, luckily.

Hope some of you guys made some profits on the move.

"We may not be able to control the wind, but we can always adjust our sails"
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  #14 (permalink)
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aediaz1 View Post
The SnB said they'll defend the 1.2 level on eur/chf at all cost. To me, this is probably the best opportunity in years to make abnormal return in a relative short timeframe with the rare use of heavy leverage.

I'm surprised to see little talk of this rare opportunity to buy with the SnB.

Are you trading this scenario yourself ?

Not sure about eur/chf, but I can tell CHF is in trouble against USD. Reason: A good chunk of money stolen during US (and now the Wolrd) economy collapse found its way into Swiss banks. Now that the bottom is falling off inside the Euro zone, the thieves are getting nervous and bringing the money back to the safe keepers in USA, thus the fall of CHF. See the weekly chart attached. The CHF has been high for too long piling up scare and stolen money that is now leaving Swiss.

The bottom line, CHF will not, and does not have the capacity, to remain the piggy bank for the rest of the world, so watch out!

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Eur/chf - Rare opportunity ?-usdchf-9-20-2011.png  
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  #15 (permalink)
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aligator View Post
Not sure about eur/chf, but I can tell CHF is in trouble against USD. Reason: A good chunk of money stolen during US (and now the Wolrd) economy collapse found its way into Swiss banks. Now that the bottom is falling off inside the Euro zone, the thieves are getting nervous and bringing the money back to the safe keepers in USA, thus the fall of CHF. See the weekly chart attached. The CHF has been high for too long piling up scare and stolen money that is now leaving Swiss.

The bottom line, CHF will not, and does not have the capacity, to remain the piggy bank for the rest of the world, so watch out!

To my information, this was caused by SnB intervention. I can't imagine "thief's" moved chf 1000's of pips.

"We may not be able to control the wind, but we can always adjust our sails"
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  #16 (permalink)
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aligator View Post
...that is now leaving Swiss.

This would mean that a SNB wish would come true...And they would not need the -fix.
But I didn't see any trucks with money leaving here today...

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aediaz1 View Post
To my information, this was caused by SnB intervention. I can't imagine "thief's" moved chf 1000's of pips.

It was just the SnB reacting. They will react again and again until run out of dough and start self-preservation.


terratec View Post
This would mean that a SNB wish would come true...And they would not need the -fix.
But I didn't see any trucks with money leaving here today...

You didn't see any truckloads coming in either (hint: they do it at night).

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  #18 (permalink)
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aligator View Post
It was just the SnB reacting. They will react again and again until run out of dough and start self-preservation.



You didn't see any truckloads coming in either (hint: they do it at night).

I assumed you where joking about the thief-story lol.


Reacting as in intervention, correct.

"We may not be able to control the wind, but we can always adjust our sails"
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  #19 (permalink)
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SNB will defend the 1.20 level. A test will come with the end of the Greek drama.
There were some rumors of moving the level to 1.25 (which would be a bad R/R).

This interview with the Swiss Finance Minister could slow down this speculations. (Don't know why she said that, as she has very hard reelections coming up in a few weeks).
Interesting how CHF will react on Monday.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/01/us-switzerland-finmin-idUSTRE79014320111001


Last edited by terratec; October 2nd, 2011 at 04:56 AM. Reason: new link
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  #20 (permalink)
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terratec View Post
SNB will defend the 1.20 level. A test will come with the end of the Greek drama.
There were some rumors of moving the level to 1.25 (which would be a bad R/R).

This interview with the Swiss Finance Minister could slow down this speculations. (Don't know why she said that, as she has very hard reelections coming up in a few weeks).
Interesting how CHF will react on Monday.

SNB's franc cap at right level for now: Swiss finance minister | Reuters

Thanks for sharing those links. That would be an interesting scenario if they did move the level to 1.25. I only hope we could get nearer 1.2 again

"We may not be able to control the wind, but we can always adjust our sails"
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