Sounds extremely good CollaborativeFx! (and those words are by far an understatement)
Thanks for doing this, I can't wait!
I'm going to sneak in one question and if you feel like it you can read and answer. I'm just having a little trouble with the dominant trajectory so its related to that. Thanks!
I was wondering how you maintain accuracy on daily bar trading when there can be such huge differences in the omegas for the monthly bars? Let's say you are trying to trade against an overfilled dominant trajectory and you are off by one day. So you simply wait an additional day thinking price is going to fall into a different area. However this particular month has decided to go absolutely ballistic and won't stop. And so you think you can find at least a tiny short move the next day since price is now even further at the absolute top of the price structure, so you trade short but again lose money. When this happens it seems to destroy entire days of trading since you don't want to enter long into a 200% weekly and 150% monthly filled bar (to the long side), and normally this would tell you to go short but that's not working very well. Of course this also invalidates all that DV, Alpha 4/5 and such is telling you since they are just showing overfilled conditions as well. Unless of course DV is showing an already filled move to the other side indicating an increase in likelihood for price to follow the dominant trajectory. But if I remember correctly thats not always the case during these crazy moves.
I've seen you talk about being a little too ahead of the market and I've seen you simply wait a day thinking the next week is going to be to the down side and so it will assist your daily trade. And it of course has worked for you. Now my biggest time frame is actually still just the monthly bar, so it might help me if I add quarterly, half year and yearly data. But I have decided to ask anyways because I can't imagine you can control these factors completely even with those larger bars.
One time this happened was in late 2007, I did see your long term projections from then when you called short and it was off by a few months (i hope I'm correct) Which is very rare for your accurate long term projections. However I would like to know how you traded that period?
I am actually not a long term follower though, I am just looking back in history and studying old data and looking at your old and new posts.
Mainly however I want to thank you for the collaborativefx forum you are starting. I'm not at all expecting you to answer my off topic long questions. But I hope for the best since you are a really interesting guy to say the least!
Last edited by feelnot; June 30th, 2012 at 12:28 PM.
Sorry I've been working mostly on my own ground calculations so I was a bit rusty changing to your set up and I didn't weigh things correctly.
Even better now I'm seeing how I can blend some of my concepts together with yours to fix this overall concept I'm developing that has so far been useless. Hooray for 2 months of work not going to waste!
All I'm hoping for now is to be able to put something together to begin trading. Its been more than a year of constant work. I don't know how you managed that much success already in 04 or 05.
If I ever get things going I'm going to attach some rockets to science projects I want to see succeed. That's what I use to motivate myself.
Last edited by feelnot; July 11th, 2012 at 12:45 AM.
I've also carried a long standing philosophy of intentionally not doing with the crowd is doing. So, while most are attempting to trade the point "D," I'm focused on finding ways to enter at point "C" with lower risk, riding the CD leg to a defined point at "D" and then making the determination what to do with the net positive position from there. This would effectively negate most all of the failed Standard Harmonic Patterns after point "C." If the "C" to "D" trade fails, then "Trend Continuation" has a very high probability, if the Standard Harmonic Pattern is conforming. Therefore, a Stop with a Reversal Entry Order just above point "C" - has a higher probability for returning lost capital at a minimum.
Hey I too believe there must be patterns of patterns, and have been thinking about trading the cd leg instead of waiting for PRZ territory
pm me if interested in someone to bounce ideas off