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Harmonic Currency Pair Cross Index
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Harmonic Currency Pair Cross Index

  #31 (permalink)
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One of the other things that the CD Intercept to D trade does, is that it forces verification and validation of Standard Harmonic Patterns. Either the CD Intercept to D will rise to its target level, or it will evolve into an AB=CD pattern, where essentially the old XA leg becomes the AB leg and the old BC leg becomes the CD leg.

Note: Using 61.8 for point B (retracement of the XA leg) seems to establish the above rule of thumb fairly firmly.

So, if I know the ratios of the initial Harmonic Pattern and I know that AB=CD calls for CD to extend to 127 to 161 of BC, then all I need to do is make sure that place a minimum range requirement on the original XA leg, in order to limit risk on the CD Intercept to D failure and to increase the probability for Stop & Reverse to BE recovery.

It is pretty simple and its a pretty cool way to do the Harmonics, when you stop to think about it.

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  #32 (permalink)
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Since there does not seem to be that much activity in this thread, I'll get back to my testing and research.

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JetTrader View Post
Missed this one as I was replying to a response in this thread. When I reset my screen, it was basically over.

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CD Intercept to D127 worked nicely.

So this trade set up to D was off a Standard Harmonic ? (a Gartley or Crab etc..still getting my head around these)
There is no Falcon.?
To see if I'm understanding, would there have been a Non-Conforming Falcon ?


Go easy on me.. lol

THx

Every moment I wake up I realize I know nothing, and then I smile...
Attached Thumbnails
Harmonic Currency Pair Cross Index-jt_non_conforming-falcon_6e-09-11-1-min-22_06_2011.jpg   Harmonic Currency Pair Cross Index-jt_conforming-falcon_6e-09-11-1-min-22_06_2011.jpg   Harmonic Currency Pair Cross Index-jt_conforming-falcon_2_6e-09-11-1-min-22_06_2011.jpg  

Last edited by zt379; June 22nd, 2011 at 08:52 PM.
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  #34 (permalink)
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JetTrader View Post
I sat for a long time looking at raw data and charts until I saw it, so there's no problem in not seeing right off that bat.

Note the "Recap" pic above. The only thing that is throwing you off is the fact that you are looking at a 1 Minute Chart. Had I posted this 1 Hour Chart, you would have easily seen the reason for the annotations using the standard MT4 bar location format of "[n]":

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Both charts show the exact same thing. In the M1, I drew the H1 period separators and then annotated the chart with "1 Hour Bar on M1 Chart" to let you know where the start of each hour was located on the M1 chart. On this chart, no such annotation is necessary because you are looking directly at the H1 chart and each bar represents one full hour. So, I simply labeled bars [0] and [1], so you can know in which direction the the calculation runs in order to derive the TCD value. Subtracting High [1] from Low [0] gives the H1 Short TCD Trajectory. Subtracting High [0] from Low [1] gives the H1 Long TCD Trajectory.

The calculation for all Trajectories within the system is always directional to produce a positive integer. However, there is a unique set of Trajectories called the Alpha Class, that are also directional but that produce negative numbers. Alpha Indicators are unique because everything beyond the 1st derivative of price is by definition a Non-Contiguous Transeqential Delta (NTCD). Technically, the Alpha Class is unlimited in the number of Trajectories that can be created.

If you take the three (3) bar OHLC sequence of:

[0] 1.4406 1.4421 1.4384 1.4412
[1] 1.4433 1.4438 1.4398 1.4401
[3] 1.4411 1.4440 1.4392 1.4433

You can produce 4 primary TCD Trajectories and a total of 42 Alpha Class Trajectories with 14 of them being Transequential and 28 of them being Non-Transequential and that's just using 3 bars of data.

- Transequential means Transverse Sequence: the values being calculated are transversely opposed to each other within the OHLC stream of data and both the Source and Destination values are in sequence, meaning one follows the other in Time and can be either to the Left of source value or Right of source value. The destination value is always subtracted from the source value. So, to derive the basic Long TCD, you have to subtract the destination value High [0] from the source value Low [1]. Thus, primary TCD values run backwards in Time.

- Contiguous means exactly what the name implies: the values being calculated are contiguous bars of data.

- Delta means exactly what the name implies: the difference between the two values being calculated.

A Non-Contiguous Transequential Delta (NTCD) means: the values being calculated are not contiguous bars of data (mostly the Alpha Class of Trajectory).

So, when I do primary research, I take raw data in the sample OHLC form given above for bars [0] through [3], and I look for patterns that have high yielding Deltas. The rest is a process of synthesizing the data and isolating (or, finding) those Delta Patterns that like to repeat with regularity. Then I run statistical (historical) calculations to produce dynamic Indicators from the Delta Patterns. A Trajectory is simply a Delta with an upward or downward directional component, where its Magnitude is measured in pips (in the absolute).

The key is to find the right Delta Patterns and to synthesize the best Trajectories. After that, its all about constructing algorithms to produce indicators, signals and trade logic.

JetTrader
I appreciate the time you take to reply and the detail.
Thanks for the clarification re: annotating the Long and Short Trajectories.
Leaving aside the Alphas for the moment.
I'm getting lost with the terminology.
As I understand things:
1. TCD Falcon is created via the 2 x TCD Trajectories.(one long trajectory and one short trajectory)
deriving from your High / Low over 2 consecutive (higher time frame) H1 bars.

2. You need to wait for the close of the 2nd H1 bar in order to know what the 2 x TCD Trajectories are.?
In other words the shape and direction of the Falcon

3. You can then trade the TCD Falcon on the open of H1 bar 3 in the direction towards the tail.

4. Are you saying that the trajectories High/Low subtraction calculation, your Delta, is also giving you a potential trade target?
and if so, that target would be from the open of H1 bar 3 ?

I hope you don't mind the questions.
Many thx

(Attached are 2 previous charts I posted all in one.
NT has marked the time, far right dotted vertical line as 18:00 but it is actually 17:00)

Every moment I wake up I realize I know nothing, and then I smile...
Attached Thumbnails
Harmonic Currency Pair Cross Index-jt_6e-09-11-1-min-22_06_2011.jpg  

Last edited by zt379; June 22nd, 2011 at 11:45 PM.
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  #35 (permalink)
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zt379 View Post
So this trade set up to D was off a Standard Harmonic ? (a Gartley or Crab etc..still getting my head around these)
There is no Falcon.?
To see if I'm understanding, would there have been a Non-Conforming Falcon ?


Go easy on me.. lol

THx


I'm sorry, but did you say you needed help? LOL!

All three charts look correct to my eye. A slam dunk the first time through.

I spent all day running Standard Harmonic Patterns on the M1. It got hot and heavy for a while, but as the NYSE closes up shop, things tapered off into a slow descent downward for the EURUSD. But an hour or two before 0000 GMT, smaller Standard Harmonics structures started forming again.

Note the tight Tail Feather formation on your Conforming TCD Falcon and the huge wingspan. Looks like a Falcon coming in for a landing to me, where he flares his wings just before touch-down. I'm still learning some things about Falcon's, so I am not yet a Falcon Trainer.


Last edited by JetTrader; June 23rd, 2011 at 01:13 AM.
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  #36 (permalink)
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zt379 View Post
2. You need to wait for the close of the 2nd H1 bar in order to know what the 2 x TCD Trajectories are.?

Technically, that's what got my last two Falcons shot down. Remember, I'm in discovery as well. I've seen many instances where prior to the current Time Delimiter, the Falcon takes flight. Remember you can search for Falcon's using any Time Delimiter - you can search for 38 Minute Falcons while at the same time searching for Standard Harmonics on the M1 chart if you wanted to. In that example, Time Delimiter would be 19 Minutes. It is up to your imagination and and the level of research you want to put into it. Right now, until I develop more forward looking data, I'm doing all Harmonic searches on the M1 and using H1 Time Delimiters for the Falcons.

I need to have a reason to continue this research, so I build data in the lower time-frames for concept proofing. Then I look to explore other time-frames. In the currency markets, the behavior of each pair, can be seen more easily (to my eye) in the M1 time-frame. So, that's where I develop most of my ideas. If it happens on M1, then its happening elsewhere with a larger event horizon. Also, M1 gives you more reps. You see the same patterns occurring on a more repetitious basis. It speeds up the research. You can extrapolate to larger time-frames later.

So, the entry into the Falcon can be adjusted if you like. Just as long as it is clear that the Falcon exists before the end of the second bar that contains it. Sometimes the Falcon launches first, sometimes he launches after the Harmonic (if there is one coinciding with the Falcon) and at other times, he fails to launch. I'm trying to understand WHY.

I'm all about the WHY. I want to know why things happen the way they do. I don't believe in luck and the only guess that I'm "ok" with making is an educated guess. I think there is causation for everything in life.



zt379 View Post
3. You can then trade the TCD Falcon on the open of H1 bar 3 in the direction towards the tail.

That's the current rule. Of course, it is subject to change or edits the more I learn about Harmonics and the relationship (if any) to the Falcon. One of the interesting things that I noted was that one wing of the Non-Conforming Falcons tends to end up evolving into the AB leg of the AB=CD pattern. It is not really ground breaking information when you stop think about what the TCD looks like. TCDs by definition contain all price behavior for all bars in existence. There is no price action outside of the TCD. That's why you obtain a very cool indicator when you start building the historical TCDs and produce the TCD Averages.

There are essentially three (3) of them:
  • Strategic TCD
  • Tactical TCD
  • Real-Time TCD
I won't get into them now, because they are outside the scope (for now) of this particular thread. Right now, I've only been discussing the singular/static TCD and only because it forms the body of the Falcon. Or, said another way, the Falcon and the static TCD are one and the same. But, when you get to the three (3) dynamic (a custom moving average) TCDs, that's a different animal for a different purpose.


zt379 View Post
4. Are you saying that the trajectories High/Low subtraction calculation, your Delta, is also giving you a potential trade target?

I've built a Targeting Package inside the trading system. Dynamic TCD values are used along with 30 additional inputs to the Targeting Package. I use TCD Fibonacci Ratios and a host of other inputs that produce the Trade Profile, which contains:
  • Number of Pips Expected
  • Maximum Draw Sustainable
  • Limit Level
  • Stop Level (if needed)
  • Reverse Level (if needed)


zt379 View Post
...and if so, that target would be from the open of H1 bar 3 ?

Targeting is a huge subject. No single bar can help me set a target. The Targeting Package inside the trading system is a "system" in and of itself - its a huge module with its own ranking system. In this particular phase of study, I really don't have a target. Targets are strange creatures and they require a ton of good logic. I won't be doing any target algorithms on Standard Harmonics and Falcons anytime soon.

To understand where you target should be in FX, you really do need to understand your Signal and its capacity to deliver. Anything else is flat out guess work. It took me years to learn that single lesson. Build the system or methodology first, then go back and build the logic for targeting. And, then be prepared to spend a lot of time finding the sweet spot. This is why every test trade I do, collects both MFE and MAE data. That data will become invaluable down the road when it comes time to establish realistic targets.

I'm only working on two (2) entry types. On the Standard Harmonic, I'm testing the CD Intercept to D, and the D to P (where, P = some nearby Fibonacci projection). On the TCD Falcon, I'm testing the Open of the current bar [0] (which is the Close of bar [1]). Because the Harmonics have a point "D," I'll be using that for the Limit level when entering on the CD Intercept to D. For the Falcon, I'll be using its TCD intersection (where both TCDs crossed each other previously).

These are all jello targets - there is no real substantive logic behind them. That can only be done with a real understanding of the overall capacity of the Signals used and that's just not what this phase of research is all about. So, pick a target - any target but be sure to measure and collect MFE/MAE data regardless of which target you use.
**********************

P.S.

I have no idea how you guys are getting such clean looking pics onto this forum. I can't seem to obtain the same clarity in my pics. I'm not sure if Tinypic is the problem or not, but all my pics have far lower resolution that most posted here.

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  #37 (permalink)
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Just a snap shot for time being..

Every moment I wake up I realize I know nothing, and then I smile...
Attached Thumbnails
Harmonic Currency Pair Cross Index-jt_1_6e-09-11-1-min-23_06_2011.jpg   Harmonic Currency Pair Cross Index-jt_2_6e-09-11-1-min-23_06_2011.jpg  

Last edited by zt379; June 23rd, 2011 at 11:31 AM.
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Lets see how this goes.
Not withsatnding the stop and reverse aspect.
C to D, ( Gartley retracement levels are new to me so apologies if they are not quite on the mark)

PS: Not getting the Gartley numbers right, sorry.
see 3 rd chart magenta dashed lines to D (786 retracement ?)

Every moment I wake up I realize I know nothing, and then I smile...
Attached Thumbnails
Harmonic Currency Pair Cross Index-jt_3_6e-09-11-1-min-23_06_2011.jpg   Harmonic Currency Pair Cross Index-jt_4_6e-09-11-1-min-23_06_2011.jpg   Harmonic Currency Pair Cross Index-jt_5_6e-09-11-1-min-23_06_2011.jpg  

Last edited by zt379; June 23rd, 2011 at 12:43 PM.
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JetTrader View Post
I'm sorry, but did you say you needed help? LOL!

All three charts look correct to my eye. A slam dunk the first time through.

lol...thanks for the feedback.

Quoting 
I spent all day running Standard Harmonic Patterns on the M1. It got hot and heavy for a while, but as the NYSE closes up shop, things tapered off into a slow descent downward for the EURUSD. But an hour or two before 0000 GMT, smaller Standard Harmonics structures started forming again.

Note the tight Tail Feather formation on your Conforming TCD Falcon and the huge wingspan. Looks like a Falcon coming in for a landing to me, where he flares his wings just before touch-down. I'm still learning some things about Falcon's, so I am not yet a Falcon Trainer.

Attached is a last chart I did for today, just to round it off.
I didn't mean to interupt your thread with posting my charts, especially as I'm new to these "winged" patterns.

I guess all I'm doing here is basic Gartley patterns.
It's not taking on board your level of sophistication with calculations.
I would be interested in seeing if any understandong of if/when a D holds or is extended.

I understand and appreciate your comments regards the many combinations of time deliniters.

Every moment I wake up I realize I know nothing, and then I smile...
Attached Thumbnails
Harmonic Currency Pair Cross Index-jt_7_6e-09-11-1-min-23_06_2011.jpg  

Last edited by zt379; June 23rd, 2011 at 07:49 PM.
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zt379 View Post
Just a snap shot for time being..

In the first pic, the Left Tail Feather is to far forward. It should be in the 6:00 hour because you are using the 1 hr time delimiter to locate your Falcon, which means your Falcon should be spread over 2 hours total time. So, left wingtip and left tail feather should be located in the first hour (bar [2]) with the right wingtip and right tail feather located in the second hour (bar [1]), after completion.

In the first pic, I also noticed good coincidence between the Falcon and the Harmonic. You can see why I like the CD Intercept to D, here. When the coincidence is tight in Time, the CD leg seems to have a good run and puts you in position to reverse on D with pips already booked. If CD Intercept to D fails, then Stop & Reverse at C for recovery.

The theory here is predicated on the idea that no market can contract forever. So, when CD Intercept to D fails, it provides you with a built-in "market contraction" indicator of sort. Or, thought of another way, an early warning indication of impending market expansion. That "C for Recovery" entry point into the reversal from CD Intercept to D, also provides a fairly low risk trade profile.

If you go back and take a look at most CD legs, often times you will see that they similar in size to the move you get off the D entry and sometimes even larger - significantly larger. So, if you can find a low risk way to jump C early and stay vigilant on the possibility of it failing, it makes trading the D less riskier.

I call it the CD Intercept, because you are intercepting the CD leg before D materializes. Of course, the average Harmonics trader would consider this approach nuts and that is precisely why I will try to optimize this type of trade.

I'm also working on a new profile that I'm calling the: BC Intercept to C with Scaling. This will essentially be an intercept of the BC leg using a multi-scale-in entry to point C, solidifying all positions by the time C solidifies. If C does not hold and the Harmonic goes invalid by breaking the price level at 'A', then there are a number of different approaches that I can use to reach break-even, or even net a smaller profit on the set-up. I'm still working on this approach, so I won't disclose it at this point.

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