Thank you for being so gracious with your time and offer, but I will be in New York next week on vacation and will be back on June 27. Any time after that is great for me.
BTW any trader from New York want to have a cup of coffee are most welcomed
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A short setup which has the same flavor as the one Charles took this morning on the Euro but this time on the ES which failed but nonetheless would be interested to hear how some of you see it. Would you have took this trade and if yes where would you have exited ? Thanks.
Maybe it is a case where you would want to reverse your position instead of just closing the trade.
All - I thought this might be instructive for some. (FYI - I'm practicing Charles's method in SIM)
At 9:19 cst there was an ALMOST perfect setup for a long entry. I attached my charts - the 377 made an almost perfect entry pattern but there was no Stoch divergence (admittedly not required) and crucially, the entry bar I identified did not close above the cloud thus negating an entry. I took this entry anyway and my state of mind at this moment is what was instructive to me.
One trap that I fall into while trading is that of thinking price has to obey the "laws" of my trading method. In other words that my trading method will TELL ME WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN NEXT. The mindset I had when I took this trade was that I could see into the future and this trade setup meant that I could not lose. This mindset caused me to overlook the imperfections in the trade setup - notably the bar not closing above the cloud and the lack of stoch divergence (again, this isn't required but a divergence at the entry does seem to correlate well with the success of the pattern). This is a weakness for me and one that I'm working on through following charles's method very closely and grading myself on how well I stick to the rules as he's written them. I have found it difficult to overcome this trap. I am still learning quite a bit about how the market moves and generates opportunity and, I think more importantly, how it works to seduce us and others into losing trades. As I gain more knowledge I find that it makes proper execution even more difficult - perhaps because the additional knowledge generates a false confidence or over-valuation of the predictive ability of price patterns.
I am continuing to work on the proper identification of entries using Charles's method, the proper execution of the method, and perhaps most importantly, the proper mindset while trading.
thanks for all the posters (esp charles) for making this thread so useful.
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The stop was 1 tick above the MA(55) at 1269.50 and the entry at 1268.50 so 1 point or 4 ticks. On the ES you can't always have your stop that far as you suggest as the amplitude of the move on the ES is quite different from other instruments. My reward was about 1 to 1.5 point.
I believe awhile back Charles posted that he does not like to trade within 15 minutes of the NYSE open at 8:30CST.
Things get squirrely as the big boys try to bet on the open. Kinda of like a number being released.
I agree this is a valid entry. I would seem from the 377 that you got a signal to exit shortly after the entry so you wouldn't have to take a full stop.
Reversing would be aggressive but in this case you had a HL at the bottom of the opening range on a day where you might expect range behavior (due to the longer term trading range still forming after wednesday's sell-off). One of the entries I watch on time-based charts is what I call a "2nd entry reversal" - just a HL at the bottom of what I define as a trading range (got that from al brooks). In this case you had lower volume on the move down to form the HL - which is another sign the move down might fail. Reversals in this case can lead to big moves because so many traders are looking for another big, trending day like we had wednesday - they get caught hook, line, and sinker into this short trade and then get skewered when the market starts up.
Would I have taken it? I'm not that good yet but maybe...
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