United States Core CPI m/m April 13 2021 - futures io
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United States Core CPI m/m April 13 2021


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United States Core CPI m/m April 13 2021

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  #21 (permalink)
 JamesThatcher   is a Vendor
 
 
Posts: 27 since Apr 2021
Thanks: 1 given, 12 received

Australia AU WPI (Q/Q) May 19 2021


What does the data mean to the market?

The Wage Price Index measures the change in the price businesses, and the government pay for labour, excluding bonuses. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation.
A higher than expected number should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected number should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD.
Historic deviations and their outcome
February 24 2021 A nice +0.3 deviation created a prolonged and significant move in AUD price action.

I will use forecasts of:
WPI (Q/Q) 0.5
WPI (Y/Y) 1.4

Today's trade plan
The Wage Price Index measures the change in the price businesses and the government pay for labour, excluding bonuses. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD.
I am looking for a 0.3 deviation in either direction from the forecast. If this happens we would expect to see a slow and tradeable move on EURAUD.

Tradable pairs
EURAUD

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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  #22 (permalink)
 JamesThatcher   is a Vendor
 
 
Posts: 27 since Apr 2021
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United States Crude Oil Inventories May 19 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.

There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.



Historic deviations and their outcome

May 12 2021 A small deviation which was also overshadowed by a cybersecurity attack on one of the US east coast's main oil pipeline which halted production. I sat on the sideline for this one and pleased I did.


May 5 2021 Today the data came in inline with API. Luckily I use my hybrid forecasts, which incorporates Wednesday evening's API report. If I ignored API, this would have triggered a trade, and I would have taken a loss. This is a good reminder of why the API data is relevant. We saw some very volatile price action before the news was ignored, and price action returned to the downside trend it was in before the report.


I will use forecasts of:

DOE Crude Oil Inventories +1000
DOE Gasoline Inventories -2000



Today's trade plan

If I get a deviation of -/+ 3000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and no conflicts from Gasoline, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent.

Please note that I have used hybrid forecasts to accommodate the following: -

1) DOE Crude Forecast = +1623
2) API Actual Crude = +620
3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -0886
4) API Actual Gasoline = -2800



Tradable pairs

USDBNT
USDOIL


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

 
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  #23 (permalink)
 JamesThatcher   is a Vendor
 
 
Posts: 27 since Apr 2021
Thanks: 1 given, 12 received


Australia Employment Change May 20 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

There are two main lines of data on this release.

Employment Change, the total number of people employed/changed in the previous month; more employment is positive for the Aussie dollar and would create a buy of AUD pairs.

Unemployment Rate, which has the reverse impact, a higher Unemployment Rate is negative for the Aussie Dollar and would create a sell of AUD pairs.


Historic deviations and their outcome

March 18 2021 We got a minus -0.5% positive deviation on Unemployment Rate with complimentary +58k positive deviation on the Employment Change, which gave a great move for the first minute where I banked a few pips here in the first 30 seconds, a great outcome!


February 18 2021 A prime example of why both lines must deviate in the same direction. This time it conflicted between Unemployment Rate and Employment Change which didn't create a move from which I could profit. So I stayed on the sidelines.


January 21 2021 No deviations on this release, and as you can see from the charts, the market didnít move!


I will use forecasts of:

Employment Change 20
Unemployment Rate 5.6



Today's trade plan

The focus today will be on the Unemployment Rate, this is the key metric that the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) is watching and could affect future monetary policy decisions (Interest rates).

If we get a 0.4% deviation from the forecast Unemployment Rate in either direction with no conflict from Employment Change, then we should see some good moves on AUD pairs.

If both lines deviate harmoniously, we should see a sustained move and rack up a fair amount of pips along the way.



Tradable pairs

AUDUSD
EURAUD


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

 
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  #24 (permalink)
 JamesThatcher   is a Vendor
 
 
Posts: 27 since Apr 2021
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South Africa ZAR IR exp 19/20 m late May 20 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

Higher interest rates are great for the value of the currency. Higher interest rates will create a BUY on ZAR Pairs and vice versa.
We see deviations often. We have seen four deviations since November 2018. Which is great from a bi monthly report.

April 2020 - We had a surprise cut of 1.5%, it was unscheduled, and the market wasn't ready to react. We don't have a chart for this, as it's an infrequent scenario.

March 2020 - An excellent cut of -0.50 gave a 1600 pip move over 3 mins. Not on the chart the data arrives 9 mins late, so the chart time is 13.09


Historic deviations and their outcome

January 21 2020 A surprise -0.5% cut to the rate which gave a solid 700 pip move on USDZAR. Awesome move

Its worth noting that the delivery time of this data was 9 mins past the hour.



I will use forecasts of:

Interest Rate Decision 3.5



Today's trade plan

If we see a -/+ 0.25 deviation in either direxction , then we can expect the market to go into shock, I would target a total move of at least 800 pips which should provide multiple opportunities to enter and bank some nice pips.


Tradable pairs

USDZAR


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

 
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  #25 (permalink)
 JamesThatcher   is a Vendor
 
 
Posts: 27 since Apr 2021
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Weekly Summary!! 24 May 2021

There's nothing much to report from last week. No trades hit. I did have a slight amendment to my planned trades, setting up an additional Aussie trade, Wage price index. (WPI) which I've been watching for a while and have seen some reactions recently. I always trade on the conservative side, and the deviation I expected was very unlikely to hit; however, it was worth setting up for and watching. I decided against setting up for the German PMI's. This was once a great report that used to react brilliantly, but after further analysis, I decided the recent results were too inconsistent. I couldn't say for sure that the outcome was predictable. On this occasion, it did work well. Hindsight is a wonderful thing. It's easy to look back and say I wish I had traded that; however, this is how I have saved myself from many losses in the past. It's better to miss a trade that worked than take a risk and lose. You need to be confident of the outcome if you're going to risk your hard-earned cash. Choose your trades carefully.

This week I will pick just three trades to put my money on. Here's the list of which ones: -

25/05/2021 13:00 Hungarian Interest Rate

26/05/2021 03:00 New Zealand Official Cash Rate

26/05/2021 15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories


I'm looking for new information in real-time. As the markets change, so will my planned trades. If you don't see a trading plan posted before the trade, I'll let you know why I decided not to trade it, vice versa; if new opportunities come up, I'll post my plan as far in advance as possible, so keep watching this space for updates. I work in real-time so do my plans.

Please feel free to ask questions.
Good luck this week.
James Thatcher

 
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  #26 (permalink)
 JamesThatcher   is a Vendor
 
 
Posts: 27 since Apr 2021
Thanks: 1 given, 12 received

Hungary HUF Interest Rate May 25 2021


What does the data mean to the market?

The Hungarian National Bank Monetary Policy Committee's decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the HUF - (Hungarian Forint), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the HUF.

Historic deviations and their outcome

June 29 2020 We got a negative -0.15bps (basis points) cut to the interest rate which gave a nice slow move on USDHUF, with many opportunities to enter the market!

I will use forecasts of:

Base Rate Announcement 0.6

Today's trade plan

Economists expect a series of rate hikes throughout the rest of 2021, with the first increase of 0.15bps to the interest rate expected to happen in June, followed by 25bps hikes in September and December.

Today If we see that expected series of increases brought forward, I will take a sell on USDHUF, so I am looking for a +0.15bps increase or more to sell USDHUF (Meaning I'm buying the HUF) and expect some continued HUF Strengthening.

Tradable pairs

EURHUF
USDHUF

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

 
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