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United States Core CPI m/m April 13 2021


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United States Core CPI m/m April 13 2021

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  #11 (permalink)
 JamesThatcher   is a Vendor
 
 
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Sure, no problem. I'll keep my posts in one single thread.

P.S. Sorry, I only saw your message after I posted a new thread again. Wont happen again

Thanks
James

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  #12 (permalink)
 JamesThatcher   is a Vendor
 
 
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Today I saw a massive deviation of -734k on the headline Non-farm Payrolls with a supporting +0.3% rise from the Unemployment Rate, and This crushed the US dollar across the board. I managed to bank some excellent profits early on the back of this data as the USD pairs continued to slide south. It was a shame that the Average Earnings conflicted largely. A conflict of +0.7 on this line would have upset the move in standard times, but not today!*The first week of the month over, one big win under the belt.



Happy Friday, and enjoy your weekend!


James

See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=50023;t=2021-5-7%2012:30:00.0;s=USDJPY;r=S2

See the video at :

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 JamesThatcher   is a Vendor
 
 
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Last week ended on a massive high. I set up for five trades, none of which triggered until Friday's employment data. I originally scheduled to trade Canadian employment data, as this is hot. This time it came out with the highly anticipated US Non-Farm payrolls data. I decided Canadian data risked being overshadowed by the US data, so I put my money on the US data instead. What a result, we saw a massive shock to the market from NFP, with the US losing 730k more jobs than expected. Price action was fantastic, and I ended my week with a load more pips banked.

A great start to the month, putting me in an excellent position to increase my risk appetite. If the markets give us just one surprises, it's all I need to keep my income coming solely from Forex. A good reminder to choose your trades carefully. Don't take a risk unless you are sure the outcome will be successful. Most importantly, be patient and hold your nerve. It can be frustrating when you don't see any trades, but it is better to wait and see a few successful trades instead of a load of trades where most of the outcomes result in your hard-earned cash go down the drain.
This week I will pick just three trades to put my money on. Here's the list of which ones: -

12/05/2021 13:30:00 USA's Core CPI m/m
12/05/2021 15:30:00 USA's Crude Oil Inventories
13/05/2021 20:00:00 Mexian's interest Rate

I'm looking for new information in real-time. As the markets change, so will my planned trades. If you don't see a trading plan posted before the trade, I'll let you know why I decided not to trade it, vice versa; if new opportunities come up, I'll post my plan as far in advance as possible, so keep watching this space for updates. I work in real-time so do my plans.

Please feel free to ask questions.
Good luck this week.
James Thatcher

 
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 JamesThatcher   is a Vendor
 
 
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United States Core CPI m/m May 12 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

A higher than expected number is positive/bullish for the USD, a lower than expected number is negative/bearish for the USD.
There are 4 lines of data.

CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline
CPI - Core (Y/Y)
CPI - (M/M)
CPI - (Y/Y)


Historic deviations and their outcome

April 13 2021 Minor deviations created a nice spike but no continuation. Therefore it provided a minimal opportunity and no trade for me.


March 10 2021 The headline and secondary line Core CPI Y/Y and M/M both deviated by 0.1, giving a nice 15 pip move on USDJPY. That's an excellent move for such a slight deviation, which shows how hot this data is becoming.


February 10 2021 Check out last months 0.2 deviation; bear in mind that I expect the same deviations to create a better reaction today!
We can see a small but gradual move over the first one minute with continuation two or three minutes after the initial move.



I will use forecasts of:

CPI - Core (M/M) 0.3
CPI - Core (Y/Y) 2.3
CPI (M/M) 0.2
CPI (Y/Y) 3.6



Today's trade plan

The focus is on CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline.

Today I want a Deviation of 0.2% or greater in either direction from the forecast of 0.2% to take a trade.

So, an actual figure of 0.1% to Sells on USD pairs or 0.5% to Buy USD pairs.

I will look to confirm that all others line deviates in the same direction, I will not accept a conflict on any of the other three lines!

CPI - Core (Y/Y)
CPI - (M/M)
CPI - (Y/Y)

If they all lineup, we should bank some good pips today.


Tradable pairs

USDJPY


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

 
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 JamesThatcher   is a Vendor
 
 
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United States Crude Oil Inventories May 12 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.

There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.



Historic deviations and their outcome

May 5 2021 Today the data came in inline with API. Luckily I use my hybrid forecasts, which incorporates Wednesday evening's API report. If I ignored API, this would have triggered a trade, and I would have taken a loss. This is a good reminder of why the API data is relevant. We saw some very volatile price action before the news was ignored, and price action returned to the downside trend it was in before the report.


April 28 2021 Minimal deviation from forecast with no conflict from Gasoline, It was a no-trade for me; however, I saw a healthy 30 pip move in the direction of the news. Oil was already in an upwards trend which continued pre and post news.


April 21 2021 Oil deviation wasn't even half of what I set up for no trade for me, take a look at the chart though, the price moved in the right direction of the news and immediately reversed and went the wrong way. A reminder that this needs a sizeable deviation from the forecast.



I will use forecasts of:

DOE Crude Oil Inventories -2800
DOE Gasoline Inventories +3000



Today's trade plan

If I get a deviation of -/+ 3000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and no conflicts from Gasoline, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent.

Please note that I have used hybrid forecasts to accommodate the following: -

1) DOE Crude Forecast = -2800 (RT)
2) API Actual Crude = -2500
3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -0600 ( RT)
4) API Actual Gasoline = +5600



Tradable pairs

USDBNT
USDOIL


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

 
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  #17 (permalink)
 JamesThatcher   is a Vendor
 
 
Posts: 27 since Apr 2021
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Today we saw a massive positive +0.6 deviation on the headline Core CPI M/M with a supporting positive deviation of +0.7 on the Core CPI Y/Y without conflicts on all secondary lines.

I got a great 29 pip move in the first minute, with price pushing higher for some nine minutes after the trade, giving plenty of opportunities to choose the best possible exit.

The perfect storm, with significant deviation, big initial move and lots of continuing price action, making it virtually impossible not to make money.

It's the second week of the month, two big trades under my belt.

 
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 JamesThatcher   is a Vendor
 
 
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Mexico MEX interest Rate May 13 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

Mexico's central bank vote on where to set the countries interest rate.

Traders watch interest rate changes closely as interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the MXN (Mexican Peso), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the MXN.


Historic deviations and their outcome

November 12 2020 We saw an increase of +18 basis point (bps) from the average forecast, which created a massive 546 pip move in the first minute following the data release, that's an average of 30 pips per basis point. Astonishing move!


August 15 2019 We saw a cut of -25 basis point (bps) from the average forecast, resulting in a move of 831 pips which was a lovely move!


I will use forecasts of:

Interest Rate 4



Today's trade plan

I will be looking for a deviation of 0.25 in either direction from the forecast, which should result in another very tradeable move.



Tradable pairs

USDMXN


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

 
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  #19 (permalink)
 JamesThatcher   is a Vendor
 
 
Posts: 27 since Apr 2021
Thanks: 1 given, 12 received

No trade for me on this data as Mexico's central bank voted unanimously to keep the interest rate unchanged at 4%. It was in line with expectation, however, should a surprise change occur, this kind of report would create a tremendous move, and I would be laughing all the way to the bank.

 
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  #20 (permalink)
 JamesThatcher   is a Vendor
 
 
Posts: 27 since Apr 2021
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Weekly Summary!! 17 May 2021

Last week I only set up for two trades. Initially, I planned to trade three reports. The incident in the US where a cyber-attack brought the flow of one of the east coasts main oil pipelines to a grinding halt resulted in the weekly DOE Crude Oil Inventories report that I typically trade too risky. So I wisely sat on the sideline this week. Nevertheless, it was still a good week for me to see US CPI data come out with a massive +0.6 deviation, this gave me some nine minutes of perfect price action, and I banked at least 30 pips across all my accounts.


Now I start week three with two big wins under my belt, putting me in an excellent position to increase my risk appetite even further. If the markets give me just one surprise, it's all I need.

Remember to choose your trades carefully. Don't take a risk unless you are sure the outcome will be successful. Most importantly, be patient and hold your nerve. It can be frustrating when you don't see any trades, but it is better to wait and see a few successful trades instead of a load of trades where most of the outcomes result in your hard-earned cash go down the drain.

This week I will pick just three trades to put my money on. Here's the list of which ones: -

19/05/2021 15:30:00 US Crude Oil Inventories
20/05/2021 02:30:00 AUD Employment Change
21/05/2021 08:30:00 EUR German Flash Man PMI

I'm looking for new information in real-time. As the markets change, so will my planned trades. If you don't see a trading plan posted before the trade, I'll let you know why I decided not to trade it, vice versa; if new opportunities come up, I'll post my plan as far in advance as possible, so keep watching this space for updates. I work in real-time so do my plans.

Good Luck this week.
James Thatcher


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Last Updated on May 25, 2021


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