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>50% win rate intraday with stop=target ?


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>50% win rate intraday with stop=target ?

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  #1 (permalink)
 MyTraderAdvisor 
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Does anyone managed to make more than 50% win rate, intraday, with same stop as target ?
Cm'on, it has just to be a bit better than flipping a coin...
Any idea, suggestion, strategy report, signal ?
Could be a new challenge idea for BigMike ;-)

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  #3 (permalink)
 MyTraderAdvisor 
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If there is no answer, I gues nobody is profitable :-(

I believe only in profits, not in prophets.
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Ali Huzaifa
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kissandfly View Post
If there is no answer, I gues nobody is profitable :-(

hehehe are u sure?

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Most of my trades are :

4 tick stop

Target 1 - 4 ticks
Target 2 - 8 ticks
Target 3 - 12 ticks but managed to try to squeeze some out of runners

Not forex though, so as this is the forex section, I guess it doesn't count ;-)

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 GFIs1 
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kissandfly View Post
Does anyone managed to make more than 50% win rate, intraday...

hmmm... looking for the holy grail?
This one was already stolen by another scalper
Back to coin flipping!

GFIs1

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GFIs1 View Post
hmmm... looking for the holy grail?
This one was already stolen by another scalper
Back to coin flipping!

GFIs1

How is > 50% win rate a holy grail, exactly?

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 GFIs1 
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DionysusToast View Post
How is > 50% win rate a holy grail, exactly?

As I am not owner of that holy grail system I can not answer your question.
If the system gives you consistent gains after slippage/commission over a
long period - you may make some good money. As long as your strategy
is not consistently positive - it might be better to use coin flipping instead.

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 Big Mike 
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The answer is of course.

I think no one is replying because the answer is obviously yes.

It's like the posts in the "10,000 in education" thread, where people were questioning if anyone could actually be profitable trading because no one ever sent the guy copies of tax returns showing profitability. Yes, of course.

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 teamtc247 
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MyTraderAdvisor View Post
Does anyone managed to make more than 50% win rate, intraday, with same stop as target ?
Cm'on, it has just to be a bit better than flipping a coin...
Any idea, suggestion, strategy report, signal ?
Could be a new challenge idea for BigMike ;-)


You could have a system that could be 70 percent, but really, each trade you put on is a 50/50 chance. You'll never know the sequence. You'll never know. Let that sink in.

Process oriented goals #1.
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 webradio 
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MyTraderAdvisor View Post
Does anyone managed to make more than 50% win rate, intraday, with same stop as target ?

Cm'on, it has just to be a bit better than flipping a coin...

Any idea, suggestion, strategy report, signal ?

Could be a new challenge idea for BigMike ;-)



You might want to check out both books by Bob Volman, if you‘re interested in discretionary way. For automated way, check e.g. Kevin J Davey or Andrea Unger, lot of stuff available for free. This way or other way, the skill of consistently beating the random walk probabilities is not easy to acquire.


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lightsun47
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Bumping eight year old thread? Not sure if this is right.

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  #13 (permalink)
Sameer9
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What matters is the profit factor more than win rate or risk reward ratios. In the end if you can't win more than you lose, win rates doesn't matter.

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 bobwest 
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lightsun47 View Post
Bumping eight year old thread? Not sure if this is right.


Sameer9 View Post
What matters is the profit factor more than win rate or risk reward ratios. In the end if you can't win more than you lose, win rates doesn't matter.

It is a really old thread, but the question comes up all the time.

It's not your win rate itself that matters, it's how much you make over time. Suppose you do 10 trades, and 4 are profitable and 6 are not. Not a good-seeming win rate, but you also need to know how big the profits were vs. how big the losses were. If the losses were from trades that you killed after a few ticks, but you held the profits for larger moves, where you stand may be pretty good.

You need the profit factor, or the expectancy, or just the average P/L per trade to know whether a given win rate is good or bad.

So it's a good question, because it brings to light the fallacy of just looking at the win percentage, as if all trades were always the same. They're not.

Bob.

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 TWDsje   is a Vendor
 
 
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I've been shown statements from a few people that had equal risk reward and around 70% winrate. I have no clue how they were doing it though. Such trades just seem to be harder to find.

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 jamrock 
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win rate is a terrible measure of profitability or the magnitude of the profit.
if I am not batting plus 80 % then i am losing to fees and slippage.

I hve found over and over again that the absolute best measure your strategies success and your trading success is
net contracts or net shares gaines or lost

example.

i did 5000 shares. i net out 1000 dollars

1000/ 5000 = 20 cents per share. this allows me to start to understand slippge etc once i scale up

if trading futures at the end of the day you would say net profit is
100 dollars. my total micro contracts traded round turn was 50

100 dollars/ 50 contracts = net profit of 2 dollars a contract. this is exactly why hft makes 2 cents 5 cents 1 cent on all trades they averae all of the net gains divided by total
shares or contracts traded in order to understand and see what is going on with their trading.

I am personally averaging today in the futures mkts
140 dollars per futures contract traded which is highly unusual for me. this is an extremely high number for me or anyone.

yesterday was completely different
here is yesterdays 94 dollars per contract traded.

My most successful friend who trades massive contracts a day over 3000 per day averages around 2 bucks a contract per day.
he is a hig frequency human trader with an algo assist.

he views my trading as skill mixed with luck mixed with trend following and proper cutting of losses but I am patient and dotn have that many

I would post a picture of my win loss today and yesterday if i could understand how to do it?
have a great day

my win loss yesterrday was long trade 71 % per cotnract and 90 % per trade
my short was 43% per contract and 81 % per trade

today my long per ocntracts win is 84 % per contract and 100 % per flat to flat
today my short w/l is 75 % per contract and 100 % per flat to flat.

yesterday i did 30 total flat to flat trades
today i have done 8 flat to flat trades.

FYI once you get to this point you can then start to run stats on ho wmuch of the daily range you are capturing in order to see just how advantageous day trading is for you after fees and slippage versus just a buy and hold strat.

Today in the NQ I am 7 points or 28 ticks of profit per lot on average.
MY buddy who trades prop at the end of the day always averges less than 1 tick in the nq! and if this number is way different from one day to the next then he knows something is wrong with his system or somethign is going on in the mkt. He is that consistent.

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suran
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As per my experience Win rate , R/R is all depends with the trader. some traders can trade poor R/R but still come out as consistantly profitable traders. There is no clear cut rules. You need screen time . stick to a good method and build the screen time.

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Trowhaway3014
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I always go for a reward that is at least the size of my risk for less win rate, I want a reward that is at least twice as large as my risk and in pretty much no case should traders be taking trades where the risk is greater than the reward because then you have to be right 80% or 90% of the time. That’s very difficult to do, even for a very experienced trader.

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 Linds 
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teamtc247 View Post
You could have a system that could be 70 percent, but really, each trade you put on is a 50/50 chance. You'll never know the sequence. You'll never know. Let that sink in.

Or more correctly " you could have a system that has a 70% win rate, but really, the outcome of each trade is uncertain"

I hear this 50/50 idea bandied about..it is silly - it is just code for 'uncertain'. If you knew it was statistically 50 50 then your long term win rate would be 50, not 70.

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 teamtc247 
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Linds View Post
Or more correctly " you could have a system that has a 70% win rate, but really, the outcome of each trade is uncertain"

I hear this 50/50 idea bandied about..it is silly - it is just code for 'uncertain'. If you knew it was statistically 50 50 then your long term win rate would be 50, not 70.

Uncertain is a better answer. You'll never know, but it feels like you do.

Cheers

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 Sandpaddict 
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Trowhaway3014 View Post
I always go for a reward that is at least the size of my risk for less win rate, I want a reward that is at least twice as large as my risk and in pretty much no case should traders be taking trades where the risk is greater than the reward because then you have to be right 80% or 90% of the time. That’s very difficult to do, even for a very experienced trader.

True. The only problem is you still have to find enough of those larger winners and they have to be large enough to overcome all the losses.

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