Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
Resistance breaks and becomes support, support breaks and becomes resistance.
Price broke thru what I refer to as Mult-Day resistance and ran into Multi-Week resistance.
The discussions earlier about the significance of Multi-Day resistance now becomes a discussion about the significance of Multi-Day support. If it holds what does that tell us. If it breaks what does that tell us. If this plays out as it typically does, there will be a test of support then a re-test of the 1.13600 area. Just as Multi-Day resistance put a lid on any attempt to rally in the 5 weeks since the 9/3 High, once price breaks above that resistance it must deal with Multi-Week resistance... higher time frame swing players who wield considerably more influence then the day trader who holds a hand full of contracts for minutes at a time. Above the Multi-Week players there are the Multi-Month players... think Central Banks who's time horizon and the positions they establish reflect expectations that span years.
Look at your daily bars and find the High of each of the 5 Weeks in this decline, there was one Wednesday High and all the rest were Monday or Tuesday Weekly Highs. A Left Translation and what you see in a Higher Time Frame Downtrend.... ( this behavior was discussed in earlier charts)... Look at this week's High... a Thursday.... a Right Translation and what you will see in a Higher Time Frame Uptrend. So the question becomes what Higher Time Frame rotation (Cycle) is now dominating price behavior? At a minimum this is the Upside of a Multi-Week Rotation ( Cycle) and the area of (now) Multi-Day Support is the 'backbone' of this push higher. If it breaks then we have likely seen the Top of the Multi-Week Rotation (Cycle) and price will break the recent lows and another leg down is in the cards. There is a wide band of Multi-Week resistance that extends from these overnight highs up to 1.168. For price to buy it's way thru this area is a formidable challenge and how price behaves when it tests support for the first time out of the Multi-Day Double Bottom... this will be the Bears trying to take control back... will provide insight into whether or not the Bulls can get the job done.
Although these charts are very customized, as has been remarked, the basic narrative here is plain and simple chart/price-action thinking, with a few additional tweaks to spice it up.
I clipped out enough to make this point, although obviously there is more and it does lean of @glennts's own particular additions, but i wanted to emphasize the degree of commonality these somewhat formidable-looking charts have with many other perspectives. I am still interested to see if any traders will take the invitation to join in, and maybe looking at things this way will help.
I will also say that, even though each market has its own character which needs to be understood to trade it effectively, at bottom, trading is trading, and usually the same or similar techniques and perspectives will work in different markets, perhaps with some adjustments and changes. For instance, I read @Salao's trading journal where he trades gold. I'm sure I would understand some of it better if I had ever looked at gold, which I have not, but I can follow his reasoning and read his charts and I can learn from them. I also recognize the exact same issues that he has, because I could have written the exact same words about doing the exact same things. (And not just occasionally in the distant past. ) The same with @snax, who is trading ES, something I am familiar with, and with the deep (and very dense) analyses of @josh in ES. And of @Schnook too. And quite a few others.
(I'm obviously knocking on a lot of doors, and I apologize if any of those mentioned aren't inclined or interested to look in here. Anyone else can join, too.)
So, since Glenn is posting his work here regularly, I am interested in seeing if any of the many others who also post, elsewhere, might be interested in looking at these Euro charts and seeing if there is something in this market for them to see.... not necessarily to trade, just using charting and trading principles in another place, even if only to read someone else's stuff with understanding, and maybe a comment now and then, or a question, or a "why did you do this instead of that?". I won't go trading in gold, for example, but I will read @Salao's posts. I'm often glad I did.
This probably won't ever be like the spoos thread, but trading is trading, after all.
Bob.
When one door closes, another opens.
-- Cervantes, Don Quixote
Posting this ES chart leaning into comments by @Schnook and @bobwest wondering about the carry over potential of these 6E posts to other instruments.
Choosing this ES chart as it shows very neatly a single Multi-Month Rotation (cycle) inside of which are very clear Multi-Week Rotations. I use color to denote time frame. Blue = Multi-Day or @ 5 Days, Green = Multi-Week or @ 15 Days. The Cyan ma is an SMA of 135 bars..the approximate duration of the Multi-Month Rotation ( cycle ).
Starting on the far left is the MML. You can see in the 2nd Blue box ( 1 Week), price pushed up to test the underside of the various Green indicators... Multi-Week Resistance... and is rejected back down. A higher Multi-Day Swing Low is made and the next attempt higher breaks MW Resistance. Consider this behavior in the context of today's comments on the 6E. Two Weeks later price can be seen to drop and test the Green MW ma... resistance becomes support. Notice that generally price will enjoy support from the Blue MDma until price puts in a Left Translated Weekly High and falls to break MD Support and also break the Middle of this MW S/R Band and find support on the Bottom Edge of the MW S/R Band. Rinse-repeat all the way up to the early Sept High. Notice that the three occasions the Middle of the Band broke, price reversed back up the following day. Notice the intervals of the lows.. 19, 22, 19 days and with the first and last iterations being 26 and 27 days. In order to take advantage of this behavior when it occurs, it needs to be persistent, continue reliably over time. If behavior is reliable it is predictable. If behavior is predictable it becomes tradable.
On the right price put in a Lower MW High, the backside of the MM Rotation (cycle). Price then fell into a Lower Low on the Cyan MM ma. This is no different than price finding support on the Blue ma on the MW Upside and on the Green ma on the MM Upside. Only in this instance, price is finding support for the MM rotation Low on the Multi-Year Upside. The larger the Rotation Time Frame the more contracts that have to change hands to turn price around. Four days for this MM Low....one day for each of the MW Lows.
After this MM Low, price tested MW Resistance and was rejected lower., put in a Higher MD Low and then gave us today. Look on the far left.... repeatable behavior.
Backside of the Multi-Day Rotation, Backside of the 24 Hr Rotation. This is the opportunity for the Bears to re-assert control and push price lower and for the Bulls to refuse that opportunity. When there is a confluence of indicators that fits my expectations that becomes a area of interest. Corrections are a combination of time and price. A flag can develop as the Bulls absorb the selling and get in the face of the Bears or price can drop into an area where the Bulls are waiting for better prices. How that plays out will provide insight into the larger story.
If you haven't already noticed, the Middle of the Mult-Day Donchian Channel and the POC of the prior 5 Days are at a level that represents a 50% retracement of this move.
Looking at this recent pop as a counter trend rally on the backside of the 24 Hr rotation down. If price cqnnot take out the recent lows then this pattern since Yesterday's high will start to resemble a flag as price corrects sideways in time instead of lower in price. At 21 Hrs since the prior 24 Hr rotation low put in at 11:30 AM Thursday, price is entering the window for the next low to occur. If the recent swing low of 9:20 becomes that 24HrL then you can see the potential for a Triangle to take shape as this flag builds out
The minor rotations inside the larger 24 Hr rotations tend to occur every 5 - 7 hrs.
The Sienna rectangles represent the 360 Min bars and pivot seen in the prior chart.
Everything that is white represents S/R on the 24 Hr time frame and you can see price is trying to work its way down thru 24 Hr Support as the MD rotation rolls over.
) The same with @