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@tdeu Pardon my ignorance, but I don't get your meaning, I'm unfamiliar with the term "tick failures." Can you post a chart or two with examples of what you're describing,
If I looked at this chart I would say the price action was range bound also.
Yes, there's a point to this, the two charts above are the Euro Monthly (first chart) and Euro Daily (second chart). The Monthly goes back to 2004 the Daily 2007. I believe most traders would say there's no clear direction apparent on either of these two charts (I may be wrong).
Here's my idea, Ben Bernanke has been the chairman of the Federal Reserve since February 2006, his "rule" encompasses the entire Daily chart. He's had his hands full during his tenure that's for sure. In 2008 he introduced QE-1 and the Euro responded as indicated in the chart below.
Twenty two days shy of two years later the Chairman announced QE-2 and the Euro responded as indicated in this chart.
In both of these charts something caused the dominate direction of the market to reverse. Soon after the announcement of QE-1 the Euro changed direction and moved 2141 points in the other direction. Similarly, shortly after the announcement of QE-2 something caused the Euro to change it's dominate direction and move 1406 points in the other direction. This all may be coincidence, I'm not sure, could just be the enigma of the market and nothing more than random movements.
But what if, Ben Bernanke actually knows what he's doing, and realizes the "Tea Party" might just drive a wedge through the middle of the Republican Party and screw up the mid term elections more than usual. This might just cause a major shift in the congress and he (Ben) might just have to single handedly support the Dollar while all the congressmen (new and old) wander around the halls of the capital building with their heads up their asses for another two years.
I believe the 50% line between the movement after QE-1 and the 50% line after the movement of QE-2 is no coincidence. If Ben was "shooting" for the middle of the road with QE-1, two years later he was still "dead on." If he (Ben) was "shooting" for the middle of the road whit QE-2, two years later he was still "dead on."
What about QE-3 ? Is Ben Bernanke an infantry man dragging around a bazooka, or is he a more intelligent, patient, stalker type of solider, more of a sniper, one shot, one kill. Does he always wait two years to take his shot, it seems so. How about the position on the chart where he's taken his first two shots, sure the hype will move the market prior to the announcement, but he knows that. I believe the hype of QE-3 moved the market to a similar vantage point for Ben to take his third shot with QE-3, a near perfect position from the grassy knoll, the low of the reversal move of QE-2. This is similar to the vantage point of QE-2, the high of the reversal move of QE-1.
My theory (idea) is the market will find a bottom soon, either where we are now at 1.2839 or lower, may be 1.2700 and make a run to 1.3595, that 50% area of the first two QEs. If I had 10 million dollars I'd put it all on this trade, long from the area of 1.2850 to 1.2700, target 1.3600. I'm a day trader, and I don't have a 10 million dollar account so this post is the best I can do.
F 'em Hope to see you posting soon.
