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  #2581 (permalink)
Corpus Christi, TX / Westcliffe, CO
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: DDT / Rithmic / Kinetick / IQ
Trading: 6E
Posts: 214 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 12 given, 477 received

Providing an update to the Monthly 6E chart analysis from Oct 10th and below is some of the text from that analysis which refers to the above left hand chart.

On the right hand chart I am pointing your attention to the black ma which in the earlier #2510 post I referred to as the backbone of these multi-year swings in the Euro. If you read the comments below and compare my expectations from early October with the 6E's behavior in the months since you will understand why this is relevant in this time period.

Comment from Post #2510 from October 10th.

>>Several thing to notice on the Monthly chart at the start of this week. At the break of the white uptrend line, a parallel to the 2017 - 2018 uptrend line, price found support on a black dashed line that is a lower parallel to the similar descending trend line across the Jan and June Highs. On first glance this suggests that a channel is possibly shaping up and the price's next move will be a bounce off this 'potential' channel bottom. There is a black ma that I consider the backbone of these Multi-Year Swings... it is clear how it was Resistance for several years of the prior decline and then became Support up out of the 2020 Lows. With the test at last week's High, it has demonstrated that it is once again Resistance, further confirmation that the Multi-Year rotation has rolled over. It has been my observation that the slope of the valid channels that form tend to align with the slope of this "backbone" ma. Black dotted lines have been added to show how this aligned channel would appear. Notice the bottom line crosses the bottom edge of the S/R Band and although I do expect price to eventually fall to that edge and likely push lower, I don't necessarily expect it to happen immediately... but that is dependent on price holding the current lows. If you look at how these Monthly bars interacted with the "backbone" ma you can count a 4 - 5 bar rotation on or around the ma. Last week's High is a candidate for the last 4-5 bar (month) contact and if that stands then price has no reason to push higher to re-test that level for the next few months. And that of course suggests that the current Lows will not hold.<<

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