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# 2570: "To push the theme of prior price behavior being predictive of current price behavior, it will be interesting to follow the "mid-bar" observation from # 2567. If Dec. is going to continue to attempt to close higher then the Monthly Pivot will fall somewhere in the Middle of the month's range."
A 24 Hr chart extending back to October 1st. The green band represents Trend and Support and Resistance over a 3 Week time period. In the Upper Left you can see that price broke above the Middle of the Band and tested the Upper edge of the Band. Historically this behavior will repeat every @ 8 Weeks. The rectangles on the chart represent a Week. This is the 7th Week since the prior break. The theme of the past few posts has been the likely hood of price repeating past behavior and ranging above this month's Pivot a distance @ equal to the range below the Pivot. The Yellow rectangle blocks out that area. Several interesting points to notice: The symmetrical triangle taking shape as price consolidates over the past few weeks. On the right, The High Volume Node ( POC ) of the past 3 Weeks building on the axis on the triangle. There is a tight cluster of Daily POCs just at the level of Middle of the Multi-Week Band showing the significance of this technical. And the repeated test of the past few days of resistance at the Band Middle in the time window for this resistance to break. With the Holidays ahead time is running out for price to make it's move so if it is going to happen it will happen soon. FOMC in the news this week.
A 60 Min chart. The rectangles are 6 Hr blocks... 4 of them in a 24 Hr Cycle. Easy to see the Lows of the prior two days and at 0230 in today's overnight trading, the Low of the Day was put in suggesting that during the NY Session price will likely be pushing higher looking the the High of the Day. Currently price is making an effort to reach and test Dec's Pivot at 1.14065 on the 03-22 contract.
Earlier chart in detail. To test the Dec. Pivot price would break up out of the triangle. Behavior that is typical but not essential before a triangle break is for price to test the Triangle Axis for support that then triggers the more aggressive buying required to break thru the POC cluster and Multi-Week Resistance now at 1.13420 -1.3460. A failure of price to push above this area in this intermediate time frame is potentially quite Bearish.
Yesterday failed to break above resistance as this Triangle continues to build out. Traditional analysis expects there to be 5 swings inside a 'proper' triangle. I count yesterday's test of the bottom edge as the 4th swing. An arrow has been drawn from the Apex to highlight to the merging of the blue 5 day and green 15 day SMAs at the triangle's Axis. Additional arrows point to the POC's of these Globex bars that comprise the cluster that has become the center of price rotation. If you look closely you can see that the green dotted Multi-Week (15 day) has turned higher which in the world of Cycle Analysis argues that those who play on a higher time frame are attempting to put in a low and turn the 6E trend.
On the MP along the right edge you see a Multi-Week volume distribution that indicates price has found an area of balance and the lime green level represents the high volume node of this period. Because price is in balance with Bulls and Bears pushing against each other with equal conviction, there is nothing persuasive that argues price will break higher to continue with the "prior behavior" expectation theme. And, there is nothing persuasive that argues it won't.
Prior chart: >> "If you look closely you can see that the green dotted Multi-Week (15 day) has turned higher which in the world of Cycle Analysis argues that those who play on a higher time frame are attempting to put in a low and turn the 6E trend." <<
Spent the session leaning into an upside resolution even thou price was pushing lower looking for the Low of the Day. This had me getting Long on tests of Support, especially when combined with a test of Bottom Edge of the Triangle, dashed white uptrend line. On an FOMC reaction there is typically a Stop Cleaner before the actual move kicks in and I got lucky selling resistance moments before the news release. Only sold 1 contract... I'm confident, not stupid. When there is a reasonable expectation of how price will behave and it gives you what you are looking for then that increases in my mind the probability that the next trade will also follow your expectations. As of this post price has taken out the Prior Daily High and is testing the Wkly Pivot... this soon to be closed trade is currently at $7231.25 unrealized gain.
Will this lead to the expected push up to 1.145 - 1.150 + and finish off the Monthly Bar behavior I've been discussing? Right now it is a definite maybe.
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Finishing off the 4th week of building out this (these) triangle (s). The white and yellow boundaries are perfect parallels and the apex of each is the same @ level.. on the right you can see this large rotation has been around the MP POC of this multi-week period. Not relevant or even related due to the contract differences but curious none then less is that the Apex of the larger black triangle sits at 1.13190 and the Close of last years 6E trading was at 1.23390... makes me wonder if the Masters of the Universe have a betting pool.
One of the discussions of this thread has been the interaction of price with the Monthly Pivot. On this chart and just above the triangle you can see the December Pivot as the Red Horizontal and on the day before the Pivot was formed, price hit that level and was rejected. Does this qualify as price testing of the Monthly Pivot ? That would depend on how much you insist there be perfection in price action.
# 2572 " With the Holidays ahead time is running out for price to make it's move so if it is going to happen it will happen soon. "
It's coming down to "now or never" regarding the expectations for the December candle. I find the 6E to be more technical in it's behavior that the other more popular instruments and this charts is a good illustration of that. The important point is the extent to which price action respects the triangle trend lines on this 1440 Min Globex chart. Today's overnight low put in @ 3:30 will likely be the LOD giving price the remainder of today to take a shot at the upside. As of the NY Open the upper edge of the yellow triangle is being challenged and should it break the outer black triangle will likely be tested. With 3 days left in this monthly candle there is enough time to reach to objective mentioned several weeks ago of the 1.1400 area.
# 2574 "Behavior that is typical but not essential before a triangle break is for price to test the Triangle Axis for support "
# 2578 "With 3 days left in this monthly candle there is enough time to reach to objective mentioned several weeks ago of the 1.1400 area."
Reading charts is like reading a book. As your analysis drops down thru the time frames you go from the chapters to the paragraphs to the sentences that make up those paragraphs. When you have read enough books the stories being told become familiar enough that you can develop a reasonably good idea of how the plot may develop and how the story will end.
