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EURUSD M6E/6E Euro

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  #2541 (permalink)
 glennts 
Corpus Christi, TX / Westcliffe, CO
 
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Earlier today: "If the recent swing low of 9:20 becomes that 24HrL then you can see the potential for a Triangle to take shape as this flag builds out."



An hour before the Close it looks like the Yellow option is the winner which, because of the speculation above, argues that the 24 Hr rotation low is in place. Price has now given a lower 24 Hr H and a Higher 24 Hr L... the squeeze is on as the Bears push down and the Bulls show they are willing to enter at higher prices. This is the dynamic that creates triangles. Draw a horizontal line at the apex of the triangle and that will be where the knife fights take place and elbows get thrown. Many years ago I learned that triangles are where traders go to die. So, its best to let them slug it out rather than step into the middle of it. What usually happens is that price will cross the middle ( horizontal ) as it fills out the triangle and then the middle will suddenly become support or resistance to be followed by the breakout.

This is the third day of this Multi-Day rotation and although the historical average over the years has been 5 days, it can be as short as 3 or as long as 7 days... look at your charts and see this for yourself. The resolution of this will occur next week. One thing to keep in mind is the H - L Weekly pattern. If a weekly candle is going to close higher, the low of that candle will likely be on a Monday or Tuesday... so as long a price can hold above the middle of the band there is reason to believe higher prices are ahead. If that is the case then a push lower on Monday or Tuesday is price searching for the Low of the Week.

I will be traveling for the next few weeks so updates will be sporadic. With luck someone else will step in and try to make sense of the 6E

Good luck, Be careful.

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  #2542 (permalink)
 tradepips 
Sacramento, CA USA
 
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glennts View Post
An hour before the Close it looks like the Yellow option is the winner which, because of the speculation above, argues that the 24 Hr rotation low is in place. Price has now given a lower 24 Hr H and a Higher 24 Hr L... the squeeze is on as the Bears push down and the Bulls show they are willing to enter at higher prices. This is the dynamic that creates triangles. Draw a horizontal line at the apex of the triangle and that will be where the knife fights take place and elbows get thrown. Many years ago I learned that triangles are where traders go to die. So, its best to let them slug it out rather than step into the middle of it. What usually happens is that price will cross the middle ( horizontal ) as it fills out the triangle and then the middle will suddenly become support or resistance to be followed by the breakout.

Triangles seem to be a magnet for me, I always want to place trades in them! Have to really watch for them developing and determine to pass on anything that looks inviting, or I get slaughtered for the day . Will be interesting to see where price ends up and how it gets there. Looking at the charts right now it seems to me like it will likely reach that 5 day moving average area of support at some point next week, which will, as you mentioned earlier, also be a critical area to watch.

Thanks for the charts. Stay safe and enjoy your travel adventures!

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  #2543 (permalink)
 glennts 
Corpus Christi, TX / Westcliffe, CO
 
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For those interested in this series of posts, many of the concepts discussed were explained to various degrees earlier in this thread which began in Mid-August on page 246. On page 247, post #2466 discusses the usefulness of the 360 Min bars. On page 248, post # 2476 is a Multi-Year analysis and a discussion of how to determine the average rotation intervals on any time frame and which can be an important factor to consider when choosing inputs for indicators. This chart on page 248 provided the starting point for much of the analysis commentary on the later pages and if you want to follow how the analyses progressed and important trading opportunities were identified then this is where you should start.

As mentioned, I'll be traveling for a few weeks and will post during that time if the opportunity arises.

Good luck, Be careful.

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  #2544 (permalink)
 glennts 
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Leaving in the morning but this is too interesting to not comment upon.

Friday: "Draw a horizontal line at the apex of the triangle and that will be where the knife fights take place and elbows get thrown."



Several technicals have shown up for Monday's trading sitting right on the Apex of the triangle. You can see the White 24 Hr MA has rolled over... this is showing the turn of the MD Rotation. The 24Hr time frame has a Minor relationship to the Dominant MD rotation... the 24 Hr rotations occur inside the Multi-Day rotations. On the upside of the MD Rotation the 24 Hr ma represents Support while on the backside of the MD Rotation the 24 Hr ma represents Resistance. The last 360 Min candle on Friday closed on the Apex and today's first of four 360 Min bars has put in a High against the underside of the 24 Hr ma.... resistance...so far.

I've discussed that price could possibly flag during this MD correction, a bullish sign, and the stochastic below is moving sideways to down rather than giving more of a sine wave look by simply pushing lower into an oversold condition. Think of the times you have used a stochastic and it stays in overbought or oversold territory and because of that you decided that it is not a useful indicator. It's telling us something if you can put it in the proper context.

So, two things are likely to happen. One...resistance that appears to be developing here at the Apex will hold and price will break thru the bottom. Two.. when a MD Cycle flags. assuming it continues to develop vs. option One, the 24 Hr ma will not continue to roll over and will trend sideways and become the center of rotation as price ricochets between the upper and lower bounds of the triangle. Traditionally, price can be expected to give 5 swings inside a triangle... I don't really buy into that but you can see that a few more inside bounces will bring price closer to the pointy end where one way or another this will be resolved.

Good luck, Be careful.

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  #2545 (permalink)
 tradepips 
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glennts View Post


Resistance breaks and becomes support, support breaks and becomes resistance.

Price broke thru what I refer to as Mult-Day resistance and ran into Multi-Week resistance.

The discussions earlier about the significance of Multi-Day resistance now becomes a discussion about the significance of Multi-Day support. If it holds what does that tell us. If it breaks what does that tell us. If this plays out as it typically does, there will be a test of support then a re-test of the 1.13600 area. Just as Multi-Day resistance put a lid on any attempt to rally in the 5 weeks since the 9/3 High, once price breaks above that resistance it must deal with Multi-Week resistance... higher time frame swing players who wield considerably more influence then the day trader who holds a hand full of contracts for minutes at a time. Above the Multi-Week players there are the Multi-Month players... think Central Banks who's time horizon and the positions they establish reflect expectations that span years.

Look at your daily bars and find the High of each of the 5 Weeks in this decline, there was one Wednesday High and all the rest were Monday or Tuesday Weekly Highs. A Left Translation and what you see in a Higher Time Frame Downtrend.... ( this behavior was discussed in earlier charts)... Look at this week's High... a Thursday.... a Right Translation and what you will see in a Higher Time Frame Uptrend. So the question becomes what Higher Time Frame rotation (Cycle) is now dominating price behavior? At a minimum this is the Upside of a Multi-Week Rotation ( Cycle) and the area of (now) Multi-Day Support is the 'backbone' of this push higher. If it breaks then we have likely seen the Top of the Multi-Week Rotation (Cycle) and price will break the recent lows and another leg down is in the cards. There is a wide band of Multi-Week resistance that extends from these overnight highs up to 1.168. For price to buy it's way thru this area is a formidable challenge and how price behaves when it tests support for the first time out of the Multi-Day Double Bottom... this will be the Bears trying to take control back... will provide insight into whether or not the Bulls can get the job done.

Just thought I'd point out that price reached the 1.15900 which is within the "Test of Support" white boxed area of glennts' chart posted on 10-14-2021. I think the thing I like about trading the most is when you understand why price could play out in a few different scenarios but then, when seeing the path it takes, you get feedback to what the larger cycles are doing that are influencing price behavior. In this recent move, I see a strong influence from the 5 day cycle.

Not trying to steal Glenn's thunder or his charts. Just wanted to chime in for a bit, on this lonely thread.

And thanks, again, @glennts, for sharing your charts and insights.

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  #2546 (permalink)
 glennts 
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Friday: "One thing to keep in mind is the H - L Weekly pattern. If a weekly candle is going to close higher, the low of that candle will likely be on a Monday or Tuesday... so as long a price can hold above the middle of the band there is reason to believe higher prices are ahead. If that is the case then a push lower on Monday or Tuesday is price searching for the Low of the Week."




If there is one thing that you pick up from this series of posts that will serve you well during your trading career it is the concept of the Weekly H-L pattern. In the simplest of terms it is the Left - Right Translation phenomenon applied to the Lows as well as the Highs and understanding the logical implications that spill out from this. It is one aspect of price behavior that is so obvious it took me a few decades to see it.

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  #2547 (permalink)
 glennts 
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From Thursday: " At a minimum this is the Upside of a Multi-Week Rotation ( Cycle) and the area of (now) Multi-Day Support is the 'backbone' of this push higher. If it breaks then we have likely seen the Top of the Multi-Week Rotation (Cycle) and price will break the recent lows and another leg down is in the cards. There is a wide band of Multi-Week resistance that extends from these overnight highs up to 1.168. For price to buy it's way thru this area is a formidable challenge and how price behaves when it tests support for the first time out of the Multi-Day Double Bottom... this will be the Bears trying to take control back... will provide insight into whether or not the Bulls can get the job done."



Today, Monday was the "first test" mentioned above and as you can see price had no difficulty reaching the upper edge of Multi-Week overhead resistance. Directly above today's High is a band of nothing but air and above that is where this push higher will encounter serious resistance. Because the MW stochastic is entering Overbought levels in a larger downtrend, there is risk of reversal out of another Multi Day Rotation but since the MD is just out of the blocks that is unlikely until Wednesday at the earliest. If price can clear this Middle area then 1.1700 is a given. I wasn't watching how the 6E behaved during this up move and don't have a sense of its strength but it is reasonable to assume price will push into the area marked as Monthly Resistance. That being the case, were I trading instead of traveling, I would not hold thru 24Hr corrections out of caution.

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  #2548 (permalink)
 glennts 
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Playing catch up...



The above chart is of Globex Session Bars. Based on earlier comments you can see price is somewhat mired in this area around the Middle of the Multi-Week Cycle S/R Band. Several technicals are worth noting. Yesterday's Low was put in on the Blue MD SMA... Multi-Day Support... the Upside of the Multi-Week Cycle. The last bar, as of this posting, shows the Overnight trading. Notice the bar's MP... the POC is currently below price and price is sitting on the 24 Hr Pivot. This can of course change in the blink of the eye but as it is now, this is mildly bullish. The MW stochastic continues it's push into Over Bought territory and looks to be turning but the White ma of the K Val will usually be closer to the Green K Val before the stochastic rolls over in a meaningful way. Most important on this chart is the trend of the Green Dotted 15 Day...MW... SMA. It has turned higher which suggests this move is larger than a Multi-Week Cycle and if that is true then price will break above these Highs and look for Resistance is the area indicated on earlier charts. So the question is When and How.




This 360 Min chart shows an " it can go either way" scenario. Overnight got rejected in a test of Tuesday's High. Earlier posts commented on the possibility of a Wednesday turn of the Multi-Day Cycle and this rejection argues that is likely what we are seeing. Four 360 Min Bars will generally show us the 24 Hr Cycle and currently price is in that 4th bar and unless there is a dramatic sell off, will likely put in a higher 24 Hr Low... behavior consistent with the the Upside of the MD Cycle. Yesterday's Low could qualify as a Multi-Day Low and if so then it is reasonable to assume there will be an attempt made to push higher.




This 60 Min chart shows the status of the 24 Hr Cycle... in the Window for the next 24 Hr Low. You can see the Middle of the 24 Hr Cycle S/R band is rolling over... a sign of the turn of the Multi-Day Cycle.... again an "it can go either way" scenario.

Based on somewhat mixed messages but with a Bullish larger story, I would be cautiously long once I see that the 24 Hr Low is in place and if price fails to show any serious upside momentum... then a test of Yesterday's Low is possible.

Good luck, Be careful

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  #2549 (permalink)
 glennts 
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Earlier: "Based on somewhat mixed messages but with a Bullish larger story, I would be cautiously long once I see that the 24 Hr Low is in place and if price fails to show any serious upside momentum... then a test of Yesterday's Low is possible."



An attempt was made.

Notice the similarity with today's attempt to push up out as a 24HrL and the attempt made on Wednesday. The yellow circles point out that the level where both efforts failed was at the 24 Hr Donchian Channel Middle. Part of the commentary this week has referenced the turn of the Multi-Day Cycle. Normally on a turn out of a MD High you would see one instance of the 24 Hr Donchian Middle being broken as support and then demonstrating resistance but here it has hapenned twice in 3 Days. Notice the Middle of the S/R Band is sideways and marks the middle of today's H-L rotation. As discussed in earlier charts, this is characteristic of flagging behavior... the buyers not permitting price to fall far enough to roll this indicator over. On the bottom right price is testing the edge of the S/R Band and a MD Uptrend Line drawn from the 10/12 Low and the following MDL.

Much of what happens is the same conversation from last week... flag out to the side or break this area of support and test lower. @ 1.16200 is an area where support for this push up out of 10/12 would keep open the possibility of higher prices during this swing. If that fails then 1.16100 - 1.15700 could be reached before another serious push higher is attempted.

Notice the structure out of the 10/12 low is a nice ABC pattern, the high of which needs to be broken if the Bulls hope to maintain control of this move.

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  #2550 (permalink)
 glennts 
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On the Weekly the rectangles are Month Time Blocks and the white circle marks an obvious level where resistance is likely to be found at @ 1,1700. This area is referenced in the Oct 18th posts. Look back over several years of Monthly bars and notice how often during each year the individual candles will interact with its Pivot and decide for yourself the likely hood of it happening again.



On this 360 Min chart I've focused on the nature of the Multi-Day Cycle because that rotation is important to understanding the current situation at the start of this week. After Tuesday's High price had an excuse to sell off but with each attempt the buyers were standing right there to absorb whatever was for sale and as a result they built out a flag... a continuation pattern. The status of the Multi-Week Cycle was mentioned several times last week as that is what determines how the Multi-Day Cycle behaves. In Cycle speak they have a Dominant / Minor Cycle relationship, just as the status of the Multi-Day Cycle has a Dominant / Minor Cycle relationship with the 24 Hr Cycle. Boxes within boxes. When the MD corrects price will break 24 Hr support and when the MW corrects price will break MD support... which is relevant on this Sunday because this current attempt to push higher is a bounce off that MD support...and price is in the window for the next MW Cycle turn lower... and a break of MD support. What can prevent this from happening soon... it will happen eventually... is the up move has enough momentum to force the MW to Right Translate and extend higher. So you can see how critical the beginning of this week will be to the longer story. Think of the Weekly H-L pattern. If a Week is going to end lower it will typically push higher at the start of that bar and depending on what it finds overhead it could be establishing a wick and the High of the Week. I suspect this won't take long to find out. If the MW pushes price lower then the first target will be @ 1.16111... break that then go to 1.159 ~ 1.158.

Is it likely to break? You can see on the Market Profile on the right that most of last week traded in balance which suggests the market is comfortable with this area of valuation... even distribution and absorption... out of this area price will search for the next level of balance. As mentioned in earlier charts, I don't see anything immediately overhead but air until 1.170 so I'm leaning in that direction.

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