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EURUSD M6E/6E Euro


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EURUSD M6E/6E Euro

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  #11 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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Deucalion View Post
Thanks BM, CDV still strikes me as an art - which doesn't surprise me but I did giggle like I child when I saw that 6E gap. The market is in imbalance, with the low session volume. But it's what I call a high risk trade, while it's entirely possible for the bottom to fall out to 1.3425ish, the low volume entails high risk for me, but that's just me, I would rather see exhaustion on the upside and then short again or see an "event" to the downside before I did anything. The flash crash told me that extreme moves simply mean taking very very small bites on position size, if any at all.

We agree on the risk.

In fact, I am a bit uncomfortable with this trade. But, I try to control that and just look at the chart. Lately I've been trying to "do better" when scaling in on winners, and sometimes it is great and you have massive gains. And sometimes you end up scaling in near the bottom and then have a bad price if things stop moving in your favor My last entry in fact was about 4 hours ago, as price stopped moving downward abruptly and is now sideways.

Nothing is perfect. If I need to close this short, then I will. I agree that a gap fill is likely. But since I am leaning on cumulative delta these days, I will be watching closely to see what the volume shows --- is it in the direction of the gap fill, or not? I think that is a telling sign.

Anyway, managing risk is of key importance. While I would like the first trade of this thread to be a winner, I certainly am willing to accept it will not be.

Mike

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  #12 (permalink)
 Deucalion 
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Big Mike View Post
We agree on the risk.

In fact, I am a bit uncomfortable with this trade. But, I try to control that and just look at the chart. Lately I've been trying to "do better" when scaling in on winners, and sometimes it is great and you have massive gains. And sometimes you end up scaling in near the bottom and then have a bad price if things stop moving in your favor My last entry in fact was about 4 hours ago, as price stopped moving downward abruptly and is now sideways.

Nothing is perfect. If I need to close this short, then I will. I agree that a gap fill is likely. But since I am leaning on cumulative delta these days, I will be watching closely to see what the volume shows --- is it in the direction of the gap fill, or not? I think that is a telling sign.

Anyway, managing risk is of key importance. While I would like the first trade of this thread to be a winner, I certainly am willing to accept it will not be.

Mike

Another thing I would likely look at is that bear flag retest to scale short in. This is typical scale short trade (as most are IMO). Obviously being a currency, it is entirely possible for that bottom to fall out, which would mean a killing for you. Rooting for you

So yeah hold on to it, something rotten in Euro land and high probably on a bottom fall out move

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  #13 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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Deucalion View Post
Another thing I would likely look at is that bear flag retest to scale short in. This is typical scale short trade (as most are IMO).

My plan is to hold the trade to the Europe cash open and see what happens, unless we start seeing some movement ahead of that.

Mike

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  #14 (permalink)
 indiantrader 
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It seems euro is heading to 1.33 in short-term as a target of this bearish Gartley on 4 hr may be till FOMC meet and depending on whether QE3 is announced, it will decide further course. Also break of a bearish flag on 1 and 4 hr.
USD index is also forming a bearish Gartley at 79-80 level on a daily.


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  #15 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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Meh. Closed half on the last swing low failure to really go anywhere. Looks like a gap close is more likely now.

Mike

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  #16 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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I'm flat. I get bored too easily sometimes, and I tend to err on the side of defensive trading. The sideways movement did me in here, but I still made some ticks.

If I wasn't so exhausted, I'd strongly consider a long position here if the cash session opens up with some buying, with a target near a gap fill.

Mike

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  #17 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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Updated chart.



I didn't like the buying coming in and the continued failure to really push lower. Not a good combination, especially with a large unfilled gap looming above.

Mike

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  #18 (permalink)
 terratec 
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They often push it a bit higher in the hour before the real open to get a good short entry for the 9.00 open. It looks like now. ES weak CL weak.

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 terratec 
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Very slow day. But the usual game with push to short.

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 Big Mike 
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terratec View Post
Very slow day. But the usual game with push to short.

I was awake enough to short the top of the channel around high 80s and covered around '60, naturally moments later it ran down some more lol.

Now to sleep.

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