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EURUSD 6E Euro


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EURUSD 6E Euro

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We need a general thread to discuss the Euro, EUR/USD, 6E.

Just a collection of thoughts, trades, ideas, etc.

Mike

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Here are a few of my charts.

The oscillator is a MACD. Nothing magic.

The MultiCharts "panel 2" shot is the cumulative delta up/down tick, until I figure out a way to do this with Sierra Chart.

The remaining two Sierra Chart charts round out all of my charts for the Euro. Just pivots, cumulative delta, and some trend lines (regression channel). Nothing magic. Nothing else but some money management and price action.

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Tonight we had a gap down around 140 ticks, and we've seen price stagnate afterward for the next several hours, but cumulative delta is showing a lot of selling. I am currently short a fair number of contracts, but I am waiting to see if we will do a gap fill or if we will move further downward and hit the S3 pivot at 1.3611.

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Since I am short but price is sideways, I am looking to make sure I am on the right side of the market.

I am new to cumulative delta analysis. I have noticed recently that in situations like this where we continue to hit the bid and see both the up/down tick delta moving downward, plus trade volume delta downward, yet price remains flat - that is not an ideal situation.

However, because it is after hours and volume is very light, there are not too many conclusions to be drawn in my opinion. A few days ago we had a very similar situation, a large gap down, then we proceeded to move sideways for a while -- all the while cumulative delta was showing a lot of weakness (a lot of selling). Eventually sellers were exhausted, and we saw buyers come in and move price not only to a large gap fill, but even much further.

So right now cumulative delta is supporting my short position by continuing to make new LH and LL's, even if price is sideways. I am ok with this. But should price start to make new highs, and cumulative delta also make new highs, then I will look to exit my short and strongly consider a long position for a gap fill.

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@FulcrumTrader in his most recent cumulative delta webinar on futures.io (formerly BMT) pointed out how volume analysis on the 6E can be particularly difficult due to the secondary nature of the marketplace (second to the Spot Forex market).

However, I switched to the Euro many months ago (I think it was around January this year?) from crude oil, and I've actually really enjoyed the switch. The reason I decided to start learning more about cumulative delta was quite simply one of boredom and piqued interest. The more I learned about it, the more interested I became. Now you'll see all my charts contain a cumulative delta panel on them.

Only time will tell if my trading will improve using cumulative delta or not. I do not wish to make this thread about cumulative delta. I want to make this thread about trading the Euro, whether it be EUR/USD forex market or 6E secondary market. I only shared a bit of background info.

Mike

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I will share with you how I set my targets in a trade like this.



I have basically staggered the targets below the session low, all the way to a few ticks above the next pivot support (S3 @ 1.3611).

I was scaling in a bit and unfortunately price stopped moving in my favor. It is unfortunate, but it happens. I do scale in and out of my positions, I am not fond of all in all out (AIAO).

Mike

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If you are trading on the Forex side, you are probably trading much bigger than me (bigger time frames). I've noticed a lot of spot forex guys prefer to trade on the 4H timeframe.

I have an MB Trading account and tried this too. Tried trading big time frames, but lower risk (like $1/pip instead of 12.50/tick). I had mixed success. I would do real well, then spectacularly poorly. I think the trouble for me was trying to mix the same instrument (Euro) in both a short-term (Futures) and long-term (Forex) trading style.

If you are trading on the 4H time, I'd like to hear from you on what you use to frame the market and choose targets.

Mike

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Thanks BM, CDV still strikes me as an art - which doesn't surprise me but I did giggle like I child when I saw that 6E gap. The market is in imbalance, with the low session volume. But it's what I call a high risk trade, while it's entirely possible for the bottom to fall out to 1.3425ish, the low volume entails high risk for me, but that's just me, I would rather see exhaustion on the upside and then short again or see an "event" to the downside before I did anything. The flash crash told me that extreme moves simply mean taking very very small bites on position size, if any at all.

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Deucalion View Post
Thanks BM, CDV still strikes me as an art - which doesn't surprise me but I did giggle like I child when I saw that 6E gap. The market is in imbalance, with the low session volume. But it's what I call a high risk trade, while it's entirely possible for the bottom to fall out to 1.3425ish, the low volume entails high risk for me, but that's just me, I would rather see exhaustion on the upside and then short again or see an "event" to the downside before I did anything. The flash crash told me that extreme moves simply mean taking very very small bites on position size, if any at all.

We agree on the risk.

In fact, I am a bit uncomfortable with this trade. But, I try to control that and just look at the chart. Lately I've been trying to "do better" when scaling in on winners, and sometimes it is great and you have massive gains. And sometimes you end up scaling in near the bottom and then have a bad price if things stop moving in your favor My last entry in fact was about 4 hours ago, as price stopped moving downward abruptly and is now sideways.

Nothing is perfect. If I need to close this short, then I will. I agree that a gap fill is likely. But since I am leaning on cumulative delta these days, I will be watching closely to see what the volume shows --- is it in the direction of the gap fill, or not? I think that is a telling sign.

Anyway, managing risk is of key importance. While I would like the first trade of this thread to be a winner, I certainly am willing to accept it will not be.

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We agree on the risk.

In fact, I am a bit uncomfortable with this trade. But, I try to control that and just look at the chart. Lately I've been trying to "do better" when scaling in on winners, and sometimes it is great and you have massive gains. And sometimes you end up scaling in near the bottom and then have a bad price if things stop moving in your favor My last entry in fact was about 4 hours ago, as price stopped moving downward abruptly and is now sideways.

Nothing is perfect. If I need to close this short, then I will. I agree that a gap fill is likely. But since I am leaning on cumulative delta these days, I will be watching closely to see what the volume shows --- is it in the direction of the gap fill, or not? I think that is a telling sign.

Anyway, managing risk is of key importance. While I would like the first trade of this thread to be a winner, I certainly am willing to accept it will not be.

Mike

Another thing I would likely look at is that bear flag retest to scale short in. This is typical scale short trade (as most are IMO). Obviously being a currency, it is entirely possible for that bottom to fall out, which would mean a killing for you. Rooting for you

So yeah hold on to it, something rotten in Euro land and high probably on a bottom fall out move

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Deucalion View Post
Another thing I would likely look at is that bear flag retest to scale short in. This is typical scale short trade (as most are IMO).

My plan is to hold the trade to the Europe cash open and see what happens, unless we start seeing some movement ahead of that.

Mike

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It seems euro is heading to 1.33 in short-term as a target of this bearish Gartley on 4 hr may be till FOMC meet and depending on whether QE3 is announced, it will decide further course. Also break of a bearish flag on 1 and 4 hr.
USD index is also forming a bearish Gartley at 79-80 level on a daily.


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Meh. Closed half on the last swing low failure to really go anywhere. Looks like a gap close is more likely now.

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I'm flat. I get bored too easily sometimes, and I tend to err on the side of defensive trading. The sideways movement did me in here, but I still made some ticks.

If I wasn't so exhausted, I'd strongly consider a long position here if the cash session opens up with some buying, with a target near a gap fill.

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Updated chart.



I didn't like the buying coming in and the continued failure to really push lower. Not a good combination, especially with a large unfilled gap looming above.

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They often push it a bit higher in the hour before the real open to get a good short entry for the 9.00 open. It looks like now. ES weak CL weak.

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Very slow day. But the usual game with push to short.

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terratec View Post
Very slow day. But the usual game with push to short.

I was awake enough to short the top of the channel around high 80s and covered around '60, naturally moments later it ran down some more lol.

Now to sleep.

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A final chart.



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Guys this thread isn't all about me, please feel free to share your own views on the Euro.

Here is another late afternoon shot showing today's move between the pivots, and the overall cumulative delta now continuing to head lower. This puts me into a bearish mentality, looking to sell the rallies.



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Here is my entry chart, a 4-tick renko.

I shorted here in the '60s as price fell off the pivot, and cumulative delta turned downward again after making a lower high on the bigger time frame chart.

My initial targets are around the 1.3550 mark, but I will re-adjust them in the overnight session most likely to better align with the new daily pivots.

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Do you use the close or the settlement to calculate your pivots. I have slightly different ones.

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I leave the 6E most of the days one hour or a bit later after London close. Most of the time volume in the US afternoon session is too thin and they can move it like they want.
Today we had some volume later. I think it was about the Greece call, what else.

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Big Mike and All:

I know in the past you have primarilly traded CL, and now I see you've switched your favorite instrument to EURUSD. How has the switch been?

You are also using MB Trading, right? I am trying to quantify the actual cost of transaction with MBT. Their commisions are low, but how is the slippage? Do you have any numbers from your experience? I'm guessing $20 / per 100k lot? That's $6 round trip + slippage.

Any success with using their limit order discount?

Anyone else chime in here, too!

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I shorted the Euro at 1.38624 on 15 Sep. Attached is a 1 hour chart. I trade the 1 hour, 4 hour and daily time frames on a micro account until I can't get the hang of Forex. I only trade Forex the London session as well, as i found that is where the volume is most of the time.

Currently my target is set at 1.3500 and stop is at breakeven. So trying to swing this one.

My reasoning behind the trade from a technical perspective was a break of S&R (red lines) and entered on the pull back back at S&R with the inside bar on lower volume as my entry trigger. From a sentiment perspective majority of retail traders was and still is long according to the data provided by FXCM and OANDA.

So let's see where it goes in the nest few days.

Sorry if my chart is not very view able as this is my first time posting a chart.

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Jaffels View Post
I shorted the Euro at 1.38624 on 15 Sep.

Nice entry. So you did hold over the weekend. What about FOMC?

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  #29 (permalink)
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TempletonPeck View Post
Do you use the close or the settlement to calculate your pivots. I have slightly different ones.

I am using 24 hour session times for the Euro pivots.

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serac View Post
Big Mike and All:

I know in the past you have primarilly traded CL, and now I see you've switched your favorite instrument to EURUSD. How has the switch been?

You are also using MB Trading, right? I am trying to quantify the actual cost of transaction with MBT. Their commisions are low, but how is the slippage? Do you have any numbers from your experience? I'm guessing $20 / per 100k lot? That's $6 round trip + slippage.

Any success with using their limit order discount?

Anyone else chime in here, too!

I originally switched to the Euro during the time of extreme volatility on oil, with all the stuff overseas, and we were seeing spreads of 20-30 ticks and 400 tick moves. I had intended to switch back to oil, but never did - I like the Euro And it is less controversial than trading oil for whatever society-type reasons.

I do have an MBT account where I play around. But my primarily vehicle is futures. I never experienced any slippage that I can recall at MBT, that would be because they pay you to use limit orders - which I did, limit @ the offer.

I think for the newer trader, trading spot forex EUR/USD vs trading the CME secondary 6E market is a wise thing. You can dramatically lower your risk per trade.

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  #31 (permalink)
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terratec View Post
I leave the 6E most of the days one hour or a bit later after London close. Most of the time volume in the US afternoon session is too thin and they can move it like they want.
Today we had some volume later. I think it was about the Greece call, what else.

I also tend to only trade around the Europe open. But in some cases, like this short I took a few minutes ago, the opportunity seemed too good to pass.

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  #32 (permalink)
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Mike, guess you have large stop of this trade.

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supermht View Post
Mike, guess you have large stop of this trade.

I've been adjusting my method the last few months for larger targets, and also larger stops. It is working better this way.

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If I were looking for ideas to support my short position, I would say:

- The new HH at 14:33 is not supported by CDV, which shows a LH and more sellers than buyers
- The new HH was probably an attempt to shake out shorts
- The resistance near the session high, and the S2 pivot, is holding
- The gap did not fill, a bearish sign

Now, I always try to look for reasons that I might be wrong as well:

- The channel is moving upward, yet I am short
- The later half of the day showed nothing but buying
- The S3 support and 1.3600 area held pretty well

Now there is nothing left to do but sit back and see if I am right, or wrong, about the trade.

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  #35 (permalink)
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terratec View Post
Nice entry. So you did hold over the weekend. What about FOMC?

To be honest I just pulled my stop to break even at the end of the London session on Friday and kept it open over the weekend, hoping that it would leave me enough space to avoid my stop being hit. I was also very aware of the meeting of EU Ministers and was hoping their inability to do anything useful would continue. Luckily the market didn't like the news to much and the market gaped in the direction I wanted today.

The S&R was drawn looking back a year and my thinking was that it represents a strong demand and supply zone and the EUR was acting weaker than the other USD based pairs over the past 2 weeks.

Let's see if my target gets hit, my analysis might be completely wrong.

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  #36 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
@FulcrumTrader in his most recent cumulative delta webinar on futures.io (formerly BMT) pointed out how volume analysis on the 6E can be particularly difficult due to the secondary nature of the marketplace (second to the Spot Forex market).

However, I switched to the Euro many months ago (I think it was around January this year?) from crude oil, and I've actually really enjoyed the switch. The reason I decided to start learning more about cumulative delta was quite simply one of boredom and piqued interest. The more I learned about it, the more interested I became. Now you'll see all my charts contain a cumulative delta panel on them.

Only time will tell if my trading will improve using cumulative delta or not. I do not wish to make this thread about cumulative delta. I want to make this thread about trading the Euro, whether it be EUR/USD forex market or 6E secondary market. I only shared a bit of background info.

Mike

Heres the 1 min. volume for MBT (single contributor) on esignal for this morning . Im assuming its the # of ($10k) units trading hands through MBT = "volume" but I can follow up with esignal on that . Volume for forex is difficult like you said but I see some patterns here that we could use to our advantage , perhaps for a heads up on end of a move to take profit .

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  #37 (permalink)
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Heres the chart .

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  #38 (permalink)
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Mike, nice short, I am in too

out at whole number, easy 80 ticks

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supermht View Post
Mike, nice short, I am in too

hehe, yes always nice to come back to your desk and see some targets filled that were 60-70 ticks out...

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  #40 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post


If I were looking for ideas to support my short position, I would say:

- The new HH at 14:33 is not supported by CDV, which shows a LH and more sellers than buyers
- The new HH was probably an attempt to shake out shorts
- The resistance near the session high, and the S2 pivot, is holding
- The gap did not fill, a bearish sign

Now, I always try to look for reasons that I might be wrong as well:

- The channel is moving upward, yet I am short
- The later half of the day showed nothing but buying
- The S3 support and 1.3600 area held pretty well

Now there is nothing left to do but sit back and see if I am right, or wrong, about the trade.

Mike

Mike, will you please post the updated chart for this trade? See where you exited? I'm also interested in using the cumulative delta and i think you and I are thinking pretty much the same way about it as a compliment, not a signal or indicator, but as a compliment to price, almost a part of price if you get what I mean.

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  #41 (permalink)
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r3algood View Post
Mike, will you please post the updated chart for this trade? See where you exited? I'm also interested in using the cumulative delta and i think you and I are thinking pretty much the same way about it as a compliment, not a signal or indicator, but as a compliment to price, almost a part of price if you get what I mean.

Sure this is what it looks like now.

I took off 2/3rd's between 1.3610 and 1.3602, I have a small bit left on for 1.3550 area and I may add again if we keep pulling back more overnight and the delta supports adding.



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  #42 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
Sure this is what it looks like now.

I took off 2/3rd's between 1.3610 and 1.3602, I have a small bit left on for 1.3550 area and I may add again if we keep pulling back more overnight and the delta supports adding.



Mike

Great trade

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  #43 (permalink)
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r3algood View Post
Great trade

Well I certainly wasn't expecting it to move so fast. I figured it might take all night and most of the morning. Sometimes you get lucky.

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  #44 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
Well I certainly wasn't expecting it to move so fast. I figured it might take all night and most of the morning. Sometimes you get lucky.

Mike

Great use of the delta man, price made higher high while the delta was showing a clear divergence, or lack of support for the move. Great short.

I read that you are trying to take bigger profit targets and stops, are you finding that to be successful?

What's your R:R on each trade or does it vary?

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  #45 (permalink)
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r3algood View Post
Great use of the delta man, price made higher high while the delta was showing a clear divergence, or lack of support for the move. Great short.

I read that you are trying to take bigger profit targets and stops, are you finding that to be successful?

What's your R:R on each trade or does it vary?

Yes, I am finding greater success now with larger targets and stops. But I don't want to make this thread about me, I just want to make it about trading the Euro.

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  #46 (permalink)
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I'm Looking to short(6e) around 3645....then play it by ear. Hey Mike see if you can't ride that to 3450 (or more), I think you can...remember your a big chart guy now...don't get out until a daily chart tells you to.

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kbit View Post
I'm Looking to short(6e) around 3645....then play it by ear. Hey Mike see if you can't ride that to 3450 (or more), I think you can...remember your a big chart guy now...don't get out until a daily chart tells you to.

hehe. The thing is, it won't just drop straight down to 3450. So I have found it is better for me to ride down in 50, 75, 100 tick increments if I can and be (very) happy with that. Wait for pull backs, re-enter if warranted, and ride down some more. So I may set my further target at one of those areas, then as I scale in those targets will be nearer.

Perhaps one day I will work up to keeping a single position on for hundreds of ticks. Actually, that was the plan behind the MB Trading account, but I had a hard time executing it. I've back-burnered it for now.

Post a couple charts so we can see your style.

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  #48 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
hehe. The thing is, it won't just drop straight down to 3450. So I have found it is better for me to ride down in 50, 75, 100 tick increments if I can and be (very) happy with that. Wait for pull backs, re-enter if warranted, and ride down some more. So I may set my further target at one of those areas, then as I scale in those targets will be nearer.

Perhaps one day I will work up to keeping a single position on for hundreds of ticks. Actually, that was the plan behind the MB Trading account, but I had a hard time executing it. I've back-burnered it for now.

Post a couple charts so we can see your style.

Mike

Think BIG ...that's your name ..BIG Mike...go for it, you already banked some and there"s reason to believe it will keep going...it ain't over til your chart says it's over. Look at that drop we just had, it might happen again...and you would miss it hoping for a pullback.
I might post a couple later, the only thing that discourages me is that I might be wasting my time..no offense but it seems like most around here are more or less scalpers, the puny stuff I post here has been just that kind of stuff somebody might jump on for a quick buck. Maybe your right though in showing some of the bigger stuff/techniques

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  #49 (permalink)
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Who was it that said every trade starts as a scalp?

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kbit View Post
Think BIG ...that's your name ..BIG Mike...go for it

I'm still short. Just not as short. I may be more short in a few hours, or I may be flat. We'll see

BTW, the name Big Mike is a nickname that was given to me a long time ago. It has nothing to do with the size of my ego or trading...

I for one would like to see your charts, especially if you are trading for bigger targets. That is something I am trying to work on myself.

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  #51 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
Who was it that said every trade starts as a scalp?

Mike

Not me....that's not at all how it works..that's from someone that is always wrong...not that I'm not wrong myself occasionally

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Big Mike View Post
Who was it that said every trade starts as a scalp?

Mike

That would be Al Brooks.......

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That would be Al Brooks.......

hehe thanks. That would have bugged me a while.

@kbit, at least post a couple charts just so I can get an idea of your trading personality Do you primarily trade off Daily's?

(trying to make sure this thread is NOT about me... maybe you can help...)

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@Eric j, @kbit, and others, do you look at the SP500, Gold, Oil, Bonds, etc when making trade decisions in the Euro? If yes, how so?

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And down we go...

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  #56 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
hehe thanks. That would have bugged me a while.

@kbit, at least post a couple charts just so I can get an idea of your trading personality Do you primarily trade off Daily's?

(trying to make sure this thread is NOT about me... maybe you can help...)

Mike

Ok I'll post a couple...let me get some things together so I can explain what I look at and so forth. it's pretty simple stuff really. Most people make more of it than it is as I'm sure you know. I'll try to spell it out so it's easy to understand.

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@Eric j, @kbit, and others, do you look at the SP500, Gold, Oil, Bonds, etc when making trade decisions in the Euro? If yes, how so?

Mike

No, only other eur pairs if anything

Edit: I know about the gold and oil thing but don't really care

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Big Mike View Post
@Eric j, @kbit, and others, do you look at the SP500, Gold, Oil, Bonds, etc when making trade decisions in the Euro? If yes, how so?

Mike

No , just looking for price breaking from a range into a new trend to follow ( ABC ) . Havent found the indexes to lead the currencies .

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Eur doesnŽt want to break yesterdays high. Possibly going down again. IŽll wait what happens after the news.

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TempletonPeck View Post
Eur doesnŽt want to break yesterdays high. Possibly going down again. IŽll wait what happens after the news.

PH taken out there . 3600 was support and 3700 looks like its supporting a fill of the gap . With gentle ben sinking us further into the abyss tomorrow and a generally gloomy US my bet would be bullish for EURUSD but thats a guess , Ill stick to following the strength .

The indexes are a mess and at 1st glance thats a big bear flag on dow and S&P so the index selloff should continue if you subscribe to the general flag rules of thumb .

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  #61 (permalink)
the coin hunter
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6E 240m view

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In the interest and spirit of keeping it honest I closed my Euro short as stared on post #27 for a gain of 178 pips. To be honest I did it for no other reason than my emotions getting the better of me. Still a lot of work for me ahead. Will be posting any future Euro trades in this thread.

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6E 240m view

Cory,

This TRIX seems to be a new version of your TRIX; the old version does not have a third parameter setting (i. e. 20, 8, 1); it has only two parameter settings (e. g. 20, 1). Could you post this new version ?

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lolu View Post
Cory,

This TRIX seems to be a new version of your TRIX; the old version does not have a third parameter setting (i. e. 20, 8, 1); it has only two parameter settings (e. g. 20, 1). Could you post this new version ?

Lolu

I add the an extra parm to draw the buy/sell text near or far from price but it is just for me to see you can see the same thing when bars change color and indi background changes color. That version is here

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  #65 (permalink)
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A good € card is a good card !!!

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My current charts.

I am short Euro still for now.

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  #67 (permalink)
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Why trade the 6E over the actual currency?

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Looking to unwind my short ahead of FOMC/QE3. Would be nice to get some momentum behind a bearish move going into FOMC, but I would expect markets to be largely sideways until after the announcement.

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r3algood View Post
Why trade the 6E over the actual currency?

Might check here:



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  #70 (permalink)
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..., but I would expect markets to be largely sideways until after the announcement.

Could be a move/spike in the next 30 minutes, when SNB does or does not.

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A current view







I am unwinding my short still. Would like to see S1 tested and then I'll be flat, but not sure I will be so lucky

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I am not at all crazy about this support at .35 area:



This area has been tested three times now. The prior two times we saw massive buying come in. I am still holding my short, but keeping a close eye. On the other hand, if we can breakdown below this area, it is quite bearish and maybe I'll get my S1 after all.

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Lets see if we can maintain this LH and then take another whack at the '35 area...

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  #74 (permalink)
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Looks like vwap is a strong R for the Shorts, at least in the UK session


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Looks like a stop hunt, now maybe we get some more sellers. I'd like to see us retest '35 and then move thru it this time. If we can't move thru it, I think I am gonna call it a day and just close out remaining positions until tomorrow.

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  #76 (permalink)
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Here is mine, to compare with:

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Still looking good to retest 35. I am really tired. I want to just exit soon... and go eat some birthday pie... mmm

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How do you guys use the delta to make a decision. When i look at it i have the feeling i am looking at two different unrelated charts.

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trendisyourfriend View Post
How do you guys use the delta to make a decision. When i look at it i have the feeling i am looking at two different unrelated charts.

Well I didn't want this thread to be about delta. But since I am the main guy posting in the thread right now, and my charts have delta on them, and I am using delta...

It's simple. Look at the delta difference between swing highs and lows. Call it divergence, whatever, but really what we want to measure is the difference from swing to swing. The size of the swing will depend on your trading style. I also pay attention to "bursts" of delta at certain price points, where I can envision trapped traders getting hit with stops. This is usually a good place to add to a position.

Today however I'm just trying to unwind a short position. I don't want to trade into FOMC. Market is very sideways and not giving me much volatility to get out of my short. Maybe I should go to bed, and then the market will move for everyone.



Check out @FulcrumTrader's excellent cumulative delta webinars. His most recent one is quite good:
Webinar: FulcrumTrader on Cumulative Delta Volume

And then there is a specific thread to discuss Cumulative Delta Trading:


I am by no means an expert. But I am learning. It was a rough road at first, mainly up to the point where I learned MultiCharts was incorrectly plotting what I thought was valid delta. After I figured that out, it started to make more sense! NinjaTrader, Sierra Chart, and Investor/RT can all plot cumulative delta.

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Some updated charts as we see some more selling coming in:



The 30m chart still shows how completely sideways we are though. No real conviction.



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My work here is done. Thanks for playing Good night.





I hope everyone made their goal. Trading FOMC is not ideal. I will not trade again until after FOMC. I hope you guys will post some charts and share some trades and strategy.

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Relatively small trade, I was only looking for a 2 std Deviation retracement.

Idea is that we had a quick move down that moved into the +3std Deviation range on the big time frame I'm monitoring.

Coupled with a Break of an OS line(red Line) on the smaller chart with a divergence on a momo-indie, looked to get in right at the lows allowing me to remove risk quickly...... on my big time-frame chart, expecting at minimum a 2std move off those lows which hasn't happened yet.

At any rate, I've removed risk from the trade + a few tics or two. I get a lot of the BEs, and some that move nicely.

Got two nice winners as well to the left on those OS lines prior to this one.

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Thanks Forrest for sharing your charts. I'll hope you post some more!

Here are my current charts. I should be asleep, but am not....







Top is the 30m which to me shows a pretty solid down trend today, but in the overall context of last 2-3 days we are very sideways. I was still short from yesterday and just looking to get out of my shorts today ahead of FOMC.

On the 30m chart you can see it move between the pivots pretty well. I tend to use pivots as targets.

Second chart is my 4 Renko chart, which also shows the down trend. That is just a simple regression channel, nothing fancy. But you can see the cumulative delta in panel 2 has continued to make lower highs and lower lows all morning, for the most part.

The last two charts are my MultiCharts charts, which show the Cumulative Delta Up/Down Tick in panel 2. The Sierra Chart panel 2 is Cumulative Delta Volume. I'd like to get SC to plot UpDownTick, but it doesn't yet. Or I'd like to get MultiCharts to plot Volume correctly, but it doesn't yet. LOL. So I use both. Anyway, on these charts you can see the unfilled gap which does act as a bit of a magnet, so to be watched especially if after the FOMC announcement we see a volatility spike. The bottom chart panel 3 is just a basic MACD, nothing complex (using diff).

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forrestang View Post
At any rate, I've removed risk from the trade + a few tics or two. I get a lot of the BEs, and some that move nicely.

Does this work well for you? I tried it for a long while. The old saying "you can't go broke taking a profit". But I couldn't make it work. Losers were full sized, and breaking even on too many trades didn't help. I guess the biggest issue for me is I would exit break even, then ask myself "should I still be in this trade?", or maybe the better question "is there any reason to not be in this trade?". The answer was that I should still be in. Moving to break even made no sense.

But you need to find what works for you. That is what is important. You can't copy someone else. And you've got to play to your own strengths.

I have noticed that in the "forex world", if you can call it that, a larger number of people seem to advocate setting their stop loss to breakeven and then letting the position "ride". That just doesn't work for me.

EDIT: While I was typing, your initial target of 60 was hit, but you got out breakeven.... ouch!

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Big Mike View Post
Does this work well for you?

EDIT: While I was typing, your initial target of 60 was hit, but you got out breakeven.... ouch!

I'm sure you and everyone else knows, it has its good and bad, so just MY thoughts. For a while I've been focusing on really precise entries with relatively small hard stops, ~10 pips on the EU.

The GOOD is that it's really easy to remove risk right away. It makes it easier and less stressful to pick a place to exit and remove that risk because the entry is so good. The R:R is easier to control. The best benefit though, is that when I am right, I am usually SPOT-ON, in that I usually am able to grab almost the bottom/top tic of any intermediate move I am trading.

The BAD has it's "Trade-Offs" of course. Most noticeably is that when I am wrong, and I am still wrong often, I am usually taken out of the trade immediately. And am stopped on WAY more often than I was when waiting for confirmation. It can be mentally frustrating to watch 2-3 of these occur on one day, that is still a bitch.

So, I guess it's just a matter of.... picking your poison?!?!

Btw, I took 3 tics on that. Woot!

-----EDIT-----
About trade-offs..... you cant get something for nothing. For car enthusiasts.... if you had an older 87-93 mustang and stuck say an E-303 cam in it, it will run better, but your idle will go to $hit.

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I am still awake, replying to a bunch of PM's and emails for the site.

I see the Euro just tested overnight highs, and looks like a rejection so far but it's early. If we end up coming all the way back down into the 70's then I would call that a rejection for sure.





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Not a rejection

Bed for me!

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Must. Fill. Gap!



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  #89 (permalink)
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Don't follow the 6E on these larger frames, but what lovely symmetry

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  #90 (permalink)
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Deucalion View Post
Don't follow the 6E on these larger frames, but what lovely symmetry

Deucalion,

Is that MTPredictor on your charts? Also, do you have emini-watch indicators, or is that something else that provides the PB and End of trend indication?

David

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Big Mike View Post
Does this work well for you? I tried it for a long while. The old saying "you can't go broke taking a profit". But I couldn't make it work. Losers were full sized, and breaking even on too many trades didn't help. I guess the biggest issue for me is I would exit break even, then ask myself "should I still be in this trade?", or maybe the better question "is there any reason to not be in this trade?". The answer was that I should still be in. Moving to break even made no sense.

But you need to find what works for you. That is what is important. You can't copy someone else. And you've got to play to your own strengths.

I have noticed that in the "forex world", if you can call it that, a larger number of people seem to advocate setting their stop loss to breakeven and then letting the position "ride". That just doesn't work for me.

EDIT: While I was typing, your initial target of 60 was hit, but you got out breakeven.... ouch!

Mike

That's why you should trade multple lots...take some off at first target and then you can go to b.e. with the rest.
you can always add later after a retest somewhere if didn't take you out.

Edit: I realize this is a generalization but I think you know what I mean. Most of the trades will not be homeruns and come back and get you but at least you get something, for the ones that do keep going, you get to go for the ride.

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  #92 (permalink)
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Just before FOMC Statement !!! I should have had at least 40 ticks TP, but had only 14 ticks 'cos I closed the trade; I don't want to be caught in pre-FOMC web.

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David_R View Post
Deucalion,

Is that MTPredictor on your charts? Also, do you have emini-watch indicators, or is that something else that provides the PB and End of trend indication?

David

Yes & yes, obviously you have to be careful with them, currencies are better on 240M, Daily & weeklies for Ew waves while the EWatch studies work better on tick charts. It takes time to observe and be selective on what to use when. Both can useless and very powerful depending on the instrument, the span and the context.

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  #94 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
Must. Fill. Gap!



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Post-FOMC meeting chart:



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  #96 (permalink)
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So, what's next ?

Attachment 49897

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lolu View Post
So, what's next ?

What do you think?

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I've decided to replace my 30 minute chart with a 8192 volume chart. There is nothing magical about either time frame, but I prefer the "smoothness" of the 8192 volume chart. They are fairly comparable in terms of number of bars over time.

Just posting so its clear why the chart changing going forward.



I have decided to take a small long position here at 1.3533. Initial target area is 1.3600 and 1.3615, but will be keeping a close eye as Europe opens.



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  #99 (permalink)
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Fwiw 3512 should hold...worst case 3492.
your 33 has a chance but keep 3492 as a stop in mind..6E that is....3499 e/u....actually stop should probably be a hair under that....3500 would be decent entry

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Big Mike View Post
I have decided to take a small long position here at 1.3533. Initial target area is 1.3600 and 1.3615, but will be keeping a close eye as Europe opens.

Movin' on up



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