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EURUSD 6E Euro


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EURUSD 6E Euro

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  #1 (permalink)
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We need a general thread to discuss the Euro, EUR/USD, 6E.

Just a collection of thoughts, trades, ideas, etc.

Mike

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  #3 (permalink)
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Mike

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Here are a few of my charts.

The oscillator is a MACD. Nothing magic.

The MultiCharts "panel 2" shot is the cumulative delta up/down tick, until I figure out a way to do this with Sierra Chart.

The remaining two Sierra Chart charts round out all of my charts for the Euro. Just pivots, cumulative delta, and some trend lines (regression channel). Nothing magic. Nothing else but some money management and price action.

Mike

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Tonight we had a gap down around 140 ticks, and we've seen price stagnate afterward for the next several hours, but cumulative delta is showing a lot of selling. I am currently short a fair number of contracts, but I am waiting to see if we will do a gap fill or if we will move further downward and hit the S3 pivot at 1.3611.

Mike

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  #6 (permalink)
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Since I am short but price is sideways, I am looking to make sure I am on the right side of the market.

I am new to cumulative delta analysis. I have noticed recently that in situations like this where we continue to hit the bid and see both the up/down tick delta moving downward, plus trade volume delta downward, yet price remains flat - that is not an ideal situation.

However, because it is after hours and volume is very light, there are not too many conclusions to be drawn in my opinion. A few days ago we had a very similar situation, a large gap down, then we proceeded to move sideways for a while -- all the while cumulative delta was showing a lot of weakness (a lot of selling). Eventually sellers were exhausted, and we saw buyers come in and move price not only to a large gap fill, but even much further.

So right now cumulative delta is supporting my short position by continuing to make new LH and LL's, even if price is sideways. I am ok with this. But should price start to make new highs, and cumulative delta also make new highs, then I will look to exit my short and strongly consider a long position for a gap fill.

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@FulcrumTrader in his most recent cumulative delta webinar on futures.io (formerly BMT) pointed out how volume analysis on the 6E can be particularly difficult due to the secondary nature of the marketplace (second to the Spot Forex market).

However, I switched to the Euro many months ago (I think it was around January this year?) from crude oil, and I've actually really enjoyed the switch. The reason I decided to start learning more about cumulative delta was quite simply one of boredom and piqued interest. The more I learned about it, the more interested I became. Now you'll see all my charts contain a cumulative delta panel on them.

Only time will tell if my trading will improve using cumulative delta or not. I do not wish to make this thread about cumulative delta. I want to make this thread about trading the Euro, whether it be EUR/USD forex market or 6E secondary market. I only shared a bit of background info.

Mike

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I will share with you how I set my targets in a trade like this.



I have basically staggered the targets below the session low, all the way to a few ticks above the next pivot support (S3 @ 1.3611).

I was scaling in a bit and unfortunately price stopped moving in my favor. It is unfortunate, but it happens. I do scale in and out of my positions, I am not fond of all in all out (AIAO).

Mike

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If you are trading on the Forex side, you are probably trading much bigger than me (bigger time frames). I've noticed a lot of spot forex guys prefer to trade on the 4H timeframe.

I have an MB Trading account and tried this too. Tried trading big time frames, but lower risk (like $1/pip instead of 12.50/tick). I had mixed success. I would do real well, then spectacularly poorly. I think the trouble for me was trying to mix the same instrument (Euro) in both a short-term (Futures) and long-term (Forex) trading style.

If you are trading on the 4H time, I'd like to hear from you on what you use to frame the market and choose targets.

Mike

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Thanks BM, CDV still strikes me as an art - which doesn't surprise me but I did giggle like I child when I saw that 6E gap. The market is in imbalance, with the low session volume. But it's what I call a high risk trade, while it's entirely possible for the bottom to fall out to 1.3425ish, the low volume entails high risk for me, but that's just me, I would rather see exhaustion on the upside and then short again or see an "event" to the downside before I did anything. The flash crash told me that extreme moves simply mean taking very very small bites on position size, if any at all.

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