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EURUSD 6E Euro

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  #2401 (permalink)
 rahulgopi 
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jmont1 View Post
what is the level at which you decide to enter a trade based on volume spikes? And does the current price level compared to S/R levels get taken into account?

Seems trying to eyeball volume spikes is difficult. Do U use an auto trader?

I have a 240 min on the corner for slightly large time-frame SR levels, mostly single print extremes, daily high low etc. Most importantly, if volume shows up at a level, one may observe a previous SR zone. If you already have it in your chart, it shows your understanding of price and volume action is in line with the market. IF the level is not respected, that is information too, I usually take them off the chart. Once there is a respected level, I monitor how price behaves around that zone. As long as a SR level is respected, I keep them on the chart. Respect is when price finding support or resistance at that level or breaks in high volume.

Once I identify a level, I will have a limit order to enter the trade. Here is the limit order yesterday evening, my target was slightly more ambitious, so trade did not hit the target and left some on the table as the price retraced.


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  #2402 (permalink)
 rahulgopi 
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paps View Post
on a sidenote....would you guys know if this also is a Oneline statement from the broker at the end of the year?. No need to compute various buy/sell statements....correct?. How does the points go in this?

@paps, I trade from a self directed IRA account for tax reasons, so never had an issue with filing taxes /keeping track of points. I am not sure broker will group buy and sell orders , even the order # for a buy and sell order are different , so you may have to do it manually or write a script to generate this from the statement. Atleast this is my experience with Tradestation. Statement from broker will have detailed info on trades, pnl etc but it wont correlate buy and sell orders.

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  #2403 (permalink)
 Rrrracer 
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I'm interested in reviving this thread and some EUR conversation, so just gonna be throwing some ideas against the wall here to see what sticks. Feel free to join in



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  #2404 (permalink)
 captraker 
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I'm seeing a possible pull back to 1.137 area if we have a move downward, before going up to a possible NH of the year.

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  #2405 (permalink)
 Rrrracer 
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I'd be cool with that, I got short this afternoon in the range I mentioned and am looking for a nice long hold, although I suspect today's high may be retested before we do... care to post a chart and show what you're seeing @captraker?

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  #2406 (permalink)
 captraker 
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Falling volume, price is breaking this first uptrend support line.

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  #2407 (permalink)
 Rrrracer 
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Thanks, nice to run into a fellow volume trader

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  #2408 (permalink)
 jackbravo 
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I'll jump in here.
1. Consolidation since November
2. Right in the middle
3. Last part touched was the low
4. Now making higher lows
5. Direction: unpredictable in the middle of the range. Tried a short off the 50% already and was stopped out. Seems most immediate direction is probably long [EDIT: I mean short. Actually long...actually I have no idea because we're right in the middle of a range]


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  #2409 (permalink)
 captraker 
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Strong resistance at 1.1444, LL on volume. Continuing to break support lines. Market sentiment is long, possible pull back to 1.138 before moving to top of channel.


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  #2410 (permalink)
 Rrrracer 
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Agree, retail sentiment appears to be slightly long but it's definitely leveling out from where it was earlier in the week/last week... thus we're chopping about LOL. It's been really messy, range of only 60 ticks for the week (!)
definitely not a good time to trade if you have no patience.

I'm just looking for clues on which way it will go... one might reasonably expect a retracement, I've been looking for short opportunities, but they've been few and far between. Market is generating a lot of confusion the last few days, this consolidation area will lead to a big move no doubt.

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  #2411 (permalink)
 captraker 
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No pullback, just the move up. Resistance in the channel. Possible move to 1.1587.


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  #2412 (permalink)
 captraker 
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Broken out of our channel. Falling wedge or triangle pattern forming. Higher lows on our distribution, after breaking our triangle. Possible third wave coming, with 1.156-1.158 target.


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  #2413 (permalink)
 jackbravo 
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"It does not matter how slowly you go, as long as you do not stop." Confucius
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  #2414 (permalink)
 Rrrracer 
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Asia session (!) approaching last week's low, getting quite close now... we should see some sort of reaction here.


Edit: This is the spot FX chart, 6E has already put in a new low, but the market will respond the same regardless.



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 Rrrracer 
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The bounce off last week's low didn't put up too much of a fight... bears simply absorbed and moved onward today.

This has to be the most laid back run I've seen in the EU in a long time... but it's been highly effective lol. Everyone keeps expecting a big pullback, and it just hasn't happened... coupled with strong bullish retail sentiment, I am riding with the trend until proven wrong.

Would not be a big surprise to see some profit taking tomorrow or Friday, the entire week has had an extremely low ADR and we are overdue for some sort of big day very soon. Let's try to be on the right side of it.


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  #2416 (permalink)
 captraker 
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We've fallen far beyond the wedge, volume continues to fall. Distribution has jumped back into the triangle formation. I think a fairly sharp recovery is coming.


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  #2417 (permalink)
 Rrrracer 
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EU has been in a massive bear run for the entire week. The big MM from the top of the range has been in play twice now, and it appears very possible bears could run it down for another one, stabbing 2018 lows in the process.

Today was the first day bulls really had any type of measurable response, and volume was on the rise today because of it.

Are they waking up? Very possibly; looking below there's not a whole lot of places left for them to make a stand. If this one doesn't hold then bears will be challenging for the very bottom of the range we've been in for the last few months. Grab your popcorn folks... this could get interesting.

A look at the daily now shows volume on the rise... we very well may be looking at some lower lows in 2019 if bulls can't get it together and get this thing turned around. Tomorrow, Friday, could be big even with no news announcement... we've had a week of narrow bear ranges all the way down, and are due for a big day of some sort. Will it be a correction? Or another big push down? Hard to say... first up, gotta see what Asia does, then Frankie, then London... we shall see!


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 Rrrracer 
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Bulls really not giving a whole lot to work with here... this swing down has been and still is extremely bearish. We've had a few signs of life lately but nothing compelling whatsoever, pretty much bumps in the road. Structurally speaking, this area is really the last place the bulls can make a stand, and without one there's not much in the way of significantly lower prices. Coupled with retail sentiment leaning heavily bullish... all directions point down for me at this point.




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  #2419 (permalink)
 jackbravo 
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I don't see any evidence of bulls. I've noticed with these persistent downtrend, few pullbacks, that it's really the start of something big. To my eyes, it's an imminent break of the November lows and the multi-month range. If break holds, a measured move would be about 2 cents, bringing us to 1.11.

It's very hard for me to hold though. I've been short many times in this move on an intraday basis, yet overall breakeven. Monkey brain.

Looking for next short around 1.1364. Here's the H4 chart I'm referencing.


A closer look, with VP, showing VPOC last week around 1.1370


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  #2420 (permalink)
 Rrrracer 
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~1368 looks like a damn fine place to try a short from if it makes it back up there.


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  #2421 (permalink)
 captraker 
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Now retouching 1.127, we've seen this twice since the end of last year. Those touches resulted in a strong bounce, it's possible. We've also touched the top of a larger downtrend channel. If we go back up, I want to see price reenter our up channel, if not, could be a new down channel. Volume has a consistent downtrend and our distribution is touching a low that was only hit once this year.


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  #2422 (permalink)
 captraker 
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Fun week... Continuation of falling volume as we consolidate here at 1.25-1.32; Possible bottom of distribution on the 13th. We've reentered the very bottom of the up channel. I think it will be quite volatile as we pick a direction out of this area, probably more potential on the long side.



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  #2423 (permalink)
 Rrrracer 
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I agree short term we have the potential for some good bull action, but I believe the top side is limited... HTF is definitely bearish. Currently we're hovering around last quarter's low, bulls are gonna have to get past that and have it stick before they can possibly push up to February's mid point. They've popped above it twice now and that's where we stand currently.

I'm actually showing volume rising as EUR was headed down... taken a little dip here with the congestion. FX volume can be hit or miss unfortunately.


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  #2424 (permalink)
 jackbravo 
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On the 4hr chart, we're at the bottom of a long term range, having broken through, and retraced back into the range. If this was a bullish (or false break), I would expect sudden rallies. We have had fairly limited rallies imo.



Overall, this mini-range at the bottom of the range suggests continuation, and has the appearance of a flag. Of course, ranges are unpredictable. But imo the higher likelihood is down until 1.1380 holds.


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 Rrrracer 
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Nice to see you back in action Jack Looking pretty bearish today... retail sentiment is still rather long so it wouldn't be a big surprise if we continued down.

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  #2426 (permalink)
 jackbravo 
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Well...looks like I was wrong with yesterday's read. Still haven't broken through 1.1380 decisively, but there is now a higher low.


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 Rrrracer 
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Bulls pulled off a nice reversal today, I caught the run down toward the end of the Euro session but then got turned around in the NY session, took a bit to figure out what they were up to...

As far as a measured move is concerned, looks like bulls are targeting Feb mid point.. got pretty damn close today!



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 Rrrracer 
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  #2429 (permalink)
 captraker 
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Choppy indeed. I wouldn't be surprised if it dips real quick on a stop loss hunt to 1.13 or lower, before continuing up. I'd like to see it move to 1.141-1.143, to watch it test resistance.


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  #2430 (permalink)
 jackbravo 
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After that trend down week 3 weeks ago now, market has been in a tightening range with an upward bias. Last week's high, low, and VPOC are above those from 2 weeks ago.



For me, there's no trade here. Can go in either direction at anytime. One high probabiltity trade would be to fade last week's high and low for a scalp.

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 Rrrracer 
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Still bearish overall, but bulls showing some signs of life... couple of nice targets above in the form of the monthly open and pivot point...


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  #2432 (permalink)
 jackbravo 
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So broke up up out the small range creating a double top. Took out the double top, with immediate failure back into the range. Is this trend resumption to the downside? If so, would be expecting a measured move.


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  #2433 (permalink)
 Rrrracer 
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I like the way you think @jackbravo. Personally I was expecting more of a rally, at least back to the quarterly mid point, but thus far it has not made it, and there are a lot of bearish-looking clues.

What's your thoughts, @captraker?




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  #2434 (permalink)
 jackbravo 
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Where...where to get in?





Maybe here?



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 Rrrracer 
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Pretty much a crap day so far. 6E blew her wad on Thursday, got a lazy rally up with lots of overlapping, back filling bars on Friday and today has been the chart equivalent of a turd. A good case could be made for it going either way at this point, to retest last week's low or fill the gap above.

Watching for clues...

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  #2436 (permalink)
 jackbravo 
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That range 1.1295 - 1.12485 still holding. Multiple bounces between the range and previous low 1.1261. Given that the range was able to hold off selling from previous low, my bias for this week is range to bull.

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Price came back to test the weekly pivot/weekly average price and bounced... 1st target, cam R3, hit.

A couple of smaller projections and targets have presented themselves... price pulled back just before the resistance area indicated, a good possibility that the higher ones could be hit... the pullback is kind of like getting a running start LOL. I think in Wyckoff terminology, this might be called "jumping the creek"?


Quarterly cam pivot 1 is a bit higher, and the monthly average is above that. Let's see what price action unfolds.



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 Rrrracer 
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Target hit Might not be done yet, but probably expect another pullback of some sort here. Then... wait and see what the market has to offer us in terms of clues.


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 jackbravo 
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@Rrrracer nice trading man. I like your charts.

Here's my take on this week. Higher prices expected until 1.1460-85 level, with FOMC and brexit pending.


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 Rrrracer 
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Thanks @jackbravo. I don't show that gap on my charts, but I'm using Sierra/CQG... maybe something to do with how the contract is back adjusted on NT?

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Thanks @jackbravo. I don't show that gap on my charts, but I'm using Sierra/CQG... maybe something to do with how the contract is back adjusted on NT?

I'm using Sierra/Gain. I have volume based back adjusted in Sierra, so not sure what's going on. Maybe missing data from Gain. Thx for chiming in

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 Rrrracer 
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I'm using Sierra/Gain. I have volume based back adjusted in Sierra, so not sure what's going on. Maybe missing data from Gain. Thx for chiming in

LOL I was apparently too busy staring at that huge gap to recognize you were on SC It looks right, just didn't adjust to put them together... did you get it figured out?

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Seems like the data finally filled in.

Just pure range this week, but have been steadily stepping up, supports holding. Very bullish behavior. Took a tiny trade yesterday within range (going long). Waiting now until FOMC declares itself.



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Looks like FOMC was bullish for Euro. Pullback to the consolidation take off point, closing above the uptrend line. I think this is a 2nd chance entry (rather than a failure of the uptrend). Will be looking for entry at the close of the last blue bar, targeting 1.1560 area


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It managed to close above the weekly average which is bullish. I'm not much of an indicator guy but stochastics flipped overnight in Asia so that's bearish...

Typically, yesterday's spike would mark (near) the end of a trend... great liquidity grab up on top of the highs, may be the fuel bears needed to push price lower.

I'm neutral for now, waiting for the market to show it's hand, could very well go either way (although deep down inside I am leaning short LOL )

Also, I am quite distracted by GBPUSD now since it actually moves LOL... will be keeping an eye for really good opportunities on the Euro but might be spending more of my time playing with the former.

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Good call @Rrrracer

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Good call @ Rrrracer


LOL probably more luck than anything, but it is our job to be diligent and remain open to all of the possibilities, despite what our mind says the probabilities are.

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LOL probably more luck than anything, but it is our job to be diligent and remain open to all of the possibilities, despite what our mind says the probabilities are.

Yep...be able to adapt. I entered at green and stopped at red (moved it there after bar finished). Then went to sleep. I wonder if I should have had an entry in the other direction at my stop...would've been swept into the trade.

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Supply confluence of downtrend channel and prior low. Not sure if it matters that the bar didn't exactly touch the supply line? @Feibel

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 Feibel 
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Hi,

Technically not a supply confluence, price must have a mild violation or touch. Saying that, the channel is drawn perfectly, clearly rejecting yesterday's low.

In a lovely downtrend, importantly note the last 4 drives down from the previous high (approx 1.3600) wide spreads closing weak, with poor attempts to buy after each drive down - sellers have control of this market.

A little unsettling that price didn't manage to test the demand line, we held around 1.1600. In my minds eye, i'm thinking why? Higher time frame structure? For whatever reason demand came in earlier then expected, ergo there is some demand in this market, however from this chart one would expect lower prices. An important area to watch if short, is around 1.1600 not only did we hold, there is evidence of good buying, if this breaks, no reason why price cant touch the demand line around 1.10600 (unless higher time structure is applicable)

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Feibel View Post
Hi,

Technically not a supply confluence, price must have a mild violation or touch. Saying that, the channel is drawn perfectly, clearly rejecting yesterday's low.

In a lovely downtrend, importantly note the last 4 drives down from the previous high (approx 1.3600) wide spreads closing weak, with poor attempts to buy after each drive down - sellers have control of this market.

A little unsettling that price didn't manage to test the demand line, we held around 1.1600. In my minds eye, i'm thinking why? Higher time frame structure? For whatever reason demand came in earlier then expected, ergo there is some demand in this market, however from this chart one would expect lower prices. An important area to watch if short, is around 1.1600 not only did we hold, there is evidence of good buying, if this breaks, no reason why price cant touch the demand line around 1.10600 (unless higher time structure is applicable)

Thank you for chiming in. Appreciate your insights. I hadn't considered the subtle point of demand coming in early. That is one thing to keep in mind.

I did take a short yesterday at the arrow, in the wick of the blue bar when it took out a local double top. I took one lot off already, perhaps too early. My projection for the 2nd lot is a measured move at the 50% extension of the most recent downleg. That should also coincide with the demand line of the channel. That's if it makes a new low.








EDIT: More demand came in I guess. Exited my short position with that higher low.


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Thank you for chiming in. Appreciate your insights. I hadn't considered the subtle point of demand coming in early. That is one thing to keep in mind.

I did take a short yesterday at the arrow, in the wick of the blue bar when it took out a local double top. I took one lot off already, perhaps too early. My projection for the 2nd lot is a measured move at the 50% extension of the most recent downleg. That should also coincide with the demand line of the channel. That's if it makes a new low.








EDIT: More demand came in I guess. Exited my short position with that higher low.


Thanks guys for your reviews, they are very helpful

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Thanks guys for your reviews, they are very helpful

On a daily time frame looks like descent support.

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Anybody trade FX with volume profile. I recently started reading the volume profile. it seems really good.

Eur/USD

majer voulme cluster break. I am bullish.
EURUSD.aM30

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Anybody trade FX with volume profile. I recently started reading the volume profile. it seems really good.

Eur/USD

majer voulme cluster break. I am bullish.
EURUSD.aM30

Bullish crossover on MACD in daily time frame

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 JamesThatcher   is a Vendor
 
 
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EURUSD has had a good run upwards since April, but it's starting to look like it's out of momentum. I would be wary of taking trades on EURUSD until some pattern becomes more apparent. However, I would take a long trades if it pulls back to 1.1950 for a good entry. I would target 100 pips if so.

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looks like positive momentum is regaining its footing... I see resistance at 122 or so. Looking to see it break thru and test as support. From the pull back last year between Sep and Nov we have higher highs and higher lows. if it starts trading above 122 than target price would be 125 longer term. IMHO

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