Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
@Rrrracer Great question! I wish I could say I have some super secret sauce for this but its really just a best guess. Price generally (but not always) stops where it has stopped in the past. I placed the lines where it touched the most tops/wicks or bottoms/wicks. I have highlighted them on the chart below.
Its not very clear in the screenshot because the Euro was in a range. So, I added some additional red lines where the technique is a little clearer. The top red line provided support twice. Notice how the bottom red line was penetrated by price last week and this weeks high went up and touched and reversed.
Price also tends to stop at large round numbers. Today for example the low was 1.1301
IMO the weekly chart is under utilized by traders. It really gives insight into the longer term trend and what direction you should be trading.
Looking at all the time frames, everything is solidly down. However, the daily is over extended beyond the Keltner Channels. Wouldnt take much for there to be a sharp snap back into the channel. Then again it could continue downward.
On the 4 hour chart, it could be the start of another Bear Flag or a consolidation area or something bigger to the upside. Price bounced off the 1.13 level today.
@Silver Dragon, I think it's gonna head lower even though we've had a period of diminishing (but elevated) volume and a slowing of the trend. I believe the smart money has been accumulating shorts over the last two days, and they may continue to do so. The extent of the run down is proportional to how much time they spend building their positions.
I'm mad that I missed the turnaround today as it was blatantly obvious on the daily chart and it cost me.. left a short going overnight, woke up to 90 ticks profit and didn't take it because I didn't refer to the HTF chart like a NOOB! Let it go while running around today and it took me out LOL... at least you're still in profit
As far as targets are concerned, 1.11150 is interesting as that is the next swing low on the daily, and where liquidity lies... besides big round numbers, not much in between here and there to stop it in terms of market structure.
I'm also interested to hear others' perspectives... @tturner86? @JohnS? @TradingOgre? Bueller? Bueller?
@Silver Dragon, I'm thinking 1.14300 sometime in the night. Meant to post this earlier in the evening, but forgot. Then woke up & remembered, so I posted it late - after midnight my time. Maybe 1.14200, then a retreat down.
After all, it's what you learn AFTER you know it all, that counts!
I think we are just getting into the second leg of this downtrend that started back in April/May range.
If it is the second leg, 1.10 or less could be in play. Normally you would think we would get some pullback before the second drop, we just went sideways for a long time and now it is continuing.
@Rrrracer, I don't think it's a sign of bullishness. I think we're headed back down to the 1.13650 / 1.13600 area in the short term. 1.13400 longer term.
After all, it's what you learn AFTER you know it all, that counts!
