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My 2 cents...

  #181 (permalink)
 
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 SMCJB 
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Just watched an interesting interview on RealVision TV where Michael Green of Thiel Macro sat down with Dan Morehead and Joey Krug of the blockchain investment fund Pantera Capital.

At one point Michael asks...
Would you be surprised if Bitcoin went to zero over the next 5 years?

To which they answered
I'd be extrememly surprised if a basket of cryptocurrencies was not worth a lot of money in 5-10 years. Bitcoin vs Bitcoin cash vs Etherium, there's lots of arguments on all of them, they are all different and have different parameters, and any one of those could potentially go to zero, but as a whole if you have half of dozen them it's very unlikely.

Interesting perspective - one that I'm beginning to come around to myself - question is whether its still too early. Have to remember Amazon wasn't founded until 94, Google '98 while the initial internet leaders like AOL (1983), Compuserve (1969) are no longer dominant players if they have survived at all.

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  #182 (permalink)
 
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Skepticism about cryptos seems to have died down a bit.

Here's something that may justify ramping it up some -- an academic paper that examined millions of transactions and found patterns that suggest that manipulation in Bitcoin and others contributed to their advance:


Quoting 
A concentrated campaign of price manipulation may have accounted for at least half of the increase in the price of Bitcoin and other big cryptocurrencies last year, according to a paper released on Wednesday by an academic with a history of spotting fraud in financial markets.

The paper by John Griffin, a finance professor at the University of Texas, and Amin Shams, a graduate student, is likely to stoke a debate about how much of Bitcoin’s skyrocketing gain last year was caused by the covert actions of a few big players, rather than real demand from investors.

Many industry players expressed concern at the time that the prices were being pushed up at least partly by activity at Bitfinex, one of the largest and least regulated exchanges in the industry. The exchange, which is registered in the Caribbean with offices in Asia, was subpoenaed by American regulators shortly after articles about the concerns appeared in The New York Times and other publications.

Mr. Griffin looked at the flow of digital tokens going in and out of Bitfinex and identified several distinct patterns that suggest that someone or some people at the exchange successfully worked to push up prices when they sagged at other exchanges. To do that, the person or people used a secondary virtual currency, known as Tether, which was created and sold by the owners of Bitfinex, to buy up those other cryptocurrencies.

“There were obviously tremendous price increases last year, and this paper indicates that manipulation played a large part in those price increases,” Mr. Griffin said.
...

In particular, Mr. Griffin and Mr. Shams examined the flow of Tether, a token that is supposed to be tied to the value of the dollar and that is issued exclusively by Bitfinex in large batches. They found that half of the increase in Bitcoin’s price in 2017 could be traced to the hours immediately after Tether flowed to a handful of other exchanges, generally when the price was declining.

Other large virtual currencies that can be purchased with Tether, such as Ether and Zcash, rose even more quickly than Bitcoin in those periods. The prices rose much more quickly on exchanges that accepted Tether than they did on those that did not, and the pattern ceased when Bitfinex stopped issuing new Tether this year, the authors found.

Link to article here:
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/13/technology/bitcoin-price-manipulation.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fbusiness&action=click&contentCollection=business&region=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=12&pgtype=sectionfront

Hmm.

Bob.

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  #183 (permalink)
 
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Down almost 10% again today but I don't see any news causing it. Purely technical breakdown?

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  #184 (permalink)
 tpredictor 
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The price reaction to MT GOX news was based on initial positive reaction that MT GOX selling was not an immediate risk factor followed by subsequent bearish sentiment and recognition that the latest news also means that the issue won't be fully resolved until Feb 2019. If traders were anticipating a sooner resolution the news could be paradoxically interpreted as bearish, i.e. another uncertainty now hanging over the market for a longer period of time.

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  #185 (permalink)
 
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Looking back to the point (end of November 2017) when i created this thread when BTC was hoovering at the 12.000$ level, we have now made a full 50% correction. While DLT is here to stay and one of the future promising technologies, i am still not convinced of the fundamental value that some of those current crypto's have received based on their market cap.

In order to sustain the value a few issues need to be addressed :
- where to complain / recuperate in case of a hack (broad statement), each is responsible for the security of his own system, but in some cases you could loose your asset due to fault of a 3rd party of a loophole in the techno..
- efficiency and speed are not yet comparable to mainstream systems, while this will gradually fade away, there is still a long way to go
- some of the ICO offers where in 'wild-west' style, no regulatory oversight, this is asking for trouble sooner or later

For those people who were believing in a get rich quick scenario, they are not thee yet, that was the initial point of my post in december :


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  #186 (permalink)
 
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rleplae View Post
Looking back to the point (end of November 2017) when i created this thread when BTC was hoovering at the 12.000$ level, we have now made a full 50% correction. While DLT is here to stay and one of the future promising technologies, i am still not convinced of the fundamental value that some of those current crypto's have received based on their market cap.

In order to sustain the value a few issues need to be addressed :
- where to complain / recuperate in case of a hack (broad statement), each is responsible for the security of his own system, but in some cases you could loose your asset due to fault of a 3rd party of a loophole in the techno..
- efficiency and speed are not yet comparable to mainstream systems, while this will gradually fade away, there is still a long way to go
- some of the ICO offers where in 'wild-west' style, no regulatory oversight, this is asking for trouble sooner or later

For those people who were believing in a get rich quick scenario, they are not thee yet, that was the initial point of my post in december :

I have to say that probably just under 100% of the trading activity in various blockchain/DLT coins was probably only about getting rich quick. I'm not sure how close it has been to 100, but I imagine it was very close.

As to the long-term value of the concept, I have no idea.

I think that the original impetus was to have a currency that was not issued by or dependent on a government or any repository, such as a bank. All of the issues you list are essentially due to there being no place to go for relief, and no entity, such as a bank, that actually has your money and is responsible to you for it. There is a downside to decentralization.

The future, of course, is never clear until it comes, so who knows what will eventually succeed in the marketplace.

I do think that the perception of "Hey, look how it's going up, let me get in on this" was the principal motive for most market participation, so far.

(Of course, that's also usually the principal reason for participation in any market, but then we know that most traders lose money. I think this phenomenon just took more money away from them, faster. )

Bob.

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  #187 (permalink)
 tpredictor 
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I think most of the developments on BTC have been bullish over the past year except for regulation. I think the regulations are the real problem. If you look at positive developments, it had futures listing, tracking by mainstream financial sites, tracking/following by institutional investors, etc. These are all signs of a true global phenomena. I suspect most of the bearishness is due to increased regulation and taxation treatments. I think it is very conceivable also that the futures listing changed the price dynamics because it may have decentivized any possible manipulation by whales to push the price higher.
This dynamic would have been supported by wider adoption where more numbers of people hold an asset thus making it harder for the few to control prices, i.e. increasing competition.

I think now institutional investors are going to be primarily keying in on volatility. They probably want to see the volatility drop. If the volatility drops then money may flow out of the stock market and into BTC (and other cryptos). Entrenched investors may recognize the risk this can present because everything is relative.

I think what's critical for determining whether it survives is how both the price and the network behaves around marginal production costs.

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  #188 (permalink)
 
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tpredictor View Post
I think most of the developments on BTC have been bullish over the past year except for regulation.

The fact that the price crashed was relatively non-bullish.

Bob.

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  #189 (permalink)
 
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I found this interesting and educational, but it also highlights yet another issue with crypto's

Ethereum's Growing Gas Crisis (And What's Being Done to Stop It)
https://www.coindesk.com/ethereums-growing-gas-crisis-and-whats-being-done-to-stop-it/

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  #190 (permalink)
 
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A bit sidewise related to crypto:

A friend mailed me an invite on a project called Initiative Q

When reading the website, they plan to create a new global payment system.
Quite rightful they indicate that the success of a payment system is often a chicken
and an egg situation, being 'adoption'.

According to there website they claim to have one guy on board Saar Wilf, an
entrepreneur who sold his business to Paypal. Working myself in the payment
industry for +25 years, the mentioned pain-points about many of the current
payment systems are legitimate.

However :

The project does not provide insight in how they will build such a payment
network with global reach, other than that they will work with local partners.
The website mentions the initiative Q is not based on crypto. But while digging
a bit deeper around I did find they have create ERC20 tokens just in case they
want to play the crypto card. I think they don't know it yet :
https://bloxy.info/address/0x6745c87289ab2524d26565679532acf88e7675db and
https://etherscan.io/token/0x6745c87289ab2524d26565679532acf88e7675db
but with a massive almost unlimited supply or 2 Triolion...


You look at this initiative and all red lights go off. But then, they don't ask for money.
It sure sounds like a pyramid, but can you make a pyramid without asking for money ?

Digging deeper i found the company behind this initiative is registered in Israel :

The Kew Initiative Ltd.
English name: INITIATIVE Q LTD
Date creation: 2018/05/30
Address : Tel Aviv - Yafo | street: Ahad Ha'am | number: 28 | Zip : 6514107 | Country: Israël

On the address is a brokerage firm, but not linked to this :



I was asking myself, what is the catch here ?
I don't think they will go through all this pain just to harvest people's email address ?

I did register myself, you get Q coins to register
Then you can invite 5 friends, you get more Q coins
After the 5 coins you become an evangelist and can invite 10 more friends...

No money asked, just invite people
name / email

Any thoughts from people here ?

Is this a known scheme ?

Or could it be like they explain on the website, the beginning
of an eco-system ?

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