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Agreed. Except that he assumes that a better technology will be the winning technology and the prevailing one.
This is not always the case as we know it. People, companies, etc. will use an inferior technology just because everyone else does, and although better alternatives are out there, the switch does not occur.
Matt Z
Optimus Futures
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While BTC is fairly stable and roughly 30% off its peak, we are reaching a new high for the total cryptocurrency marketcap of 720B$
This means that people are starting to chase the alt-coins,
I didn't see the total number of coins explode,
some have been added, but they are very small
Gainers for today have been :
- Ripple (+28%
- Euthereum (+3.42%
- Cardano (+39%
- Stellar +64%
- NEM +29%
All of them adding significant billion dollars to the balloon
This could signal we are going to the end of the wave...
China announced a possible curbing of electricity usage for mining purposes...
this would support the prices a bit as it could reduce the supply of new coins
but at the same time it could have an impact on the transactions times
if miners are doing less 'proof of work' hashing
I am following this drama with interest, and, as I have previously posted, I think the cryptocurrency markets are in an unsustainable bubble-type advance.
With that said, I have tried in the past, with other markets, to figure out when the end will come, based either on fundamentals/valuations or market over-participation or both, and I've always been wrong. I call for a top, it goes up, I call for a top again, it goes up again, etc.
I do appreciate these bulletins from people who are following these markets more closely than I am (since I'm not following them at all), and all these things Ron is citing make sense. It's just that things can get way crazier than anyone can believe, before they actually have gotten too crazy.
But it is fun to watch -- from the hopefully safe sidelines -- and we'll just have to see how it all finally plays out. And I'm always hoping that any fallout from a big bust, if one does come, is limited in its impact. We'll also have to see about that.
I call for a top, it goes up, I call for a top again, it goes up again, etc.