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This has some parallels with the Internet bubble of the 2000s. Not saying it's the same thing but I can see the craze around that, and you are illustrating the craze around cryptocurrencies this time around. Everybody was pumping stupid amounts of money in any firm that had a .com at the end without any due diligence. Seems like cryptocurrencies are springing like mushrooms now, with no regard to the reliability or the robustness of the infrastructure.
As for calculating the top, my take is that it's akin to calculating a reversal of any other instrument: you can't.
You can have edge-u-cated guesses with metrics analogous to what you wrote (acceleration, exhaustion, etc.) but I don't think you can accurately tell otherwise.
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
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Heard an interesting perspective on crypto's last week from a major hedge fund manager. Summarizing it they were basically saying crypto currency are going to be huge. Everybody wants to bet on that so everybody is buying Bitcoin. An analogy to this was the internet in the 90's. Everybody want to bet on that as well. So what did they do? They went out and bought companies like Cisco ( CSCO). Fast forward to today, where Cisco is still a major player in the internet space and it's trading half what it was 20 years ago. They also made the similar analogy for Yahoo. Point being, crypto's could well be huge, but the chances of Bitcoin being "THE" currency is probably low. Of course that doesn't mean it can't got a lot higher first!
Today the market cap of the crypto's that are 100M$ and more, is a total of 478,683,990,000 US$
and increase of 44,410,465,000 US$ (we talking billions here)
Ask one of the big FANG companies, how the hell you can create 44B$ in one day, ask Warren Buffet,
or any other captain of industry, however, that is the result of people pooring money into the crypto
fire...
The market cap went up 10,22%
I wrote yesterday that if we continue to do this, we will reach a Trillion US$ before the end of the year...
the bubble is inflated at a very rapid pace..
but that is now all no longer needed, as you can follow live the evolution of all crypto coins on the following link
Both tell the same story, the market cap of crypto coins are going through the roof, while there
is no reasonable rational to explain it, other than many many people putting their money
because it goes up...
If you do an IPO (list a company), you have to go through very rigid rules, that need to be
respected. Today any garage team can create a crypto currency and sell it to the masses,
this will go bad.. and then after the facts, the regulators will jump on it, learning from the
mistakes..
You can not simply crate 40B$ out of thin air... in a day
