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My 2 cents...
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My 2 cents...

  #151 (permalink)
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bobwest View Post
This whole mining thing has always puzzled me:


Sorry to get on this rant, but I still have trouble with the basic idea that it takes "mining" to make it, and therefore it is a good idea for a currency.

This is separate from whether the current market is or is not in a bubble, although the oddity of the currency's "backing" suggests that, in actual fact, the price is based on nothing in particular except buyers' enthusiasm.

Bob.

I respect your point. But my view it's not that it takes mining to make it. It takes mining to transfer it.

If you think about it you will notice a huge difference that could validate both the theory of people who think it will cease to exist and people who think it will skyrocket. But there are not intermediate options in this story.

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  #152 (permalink)
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bobwest View Post
This is separate from whether the current market is or is not in a bubble, although the oddity of the currency's "backing" suggests that, in actual fact, the price is based on nothing in particular except buyers' enthusiasm.


montanajtt View Post
If you think about it you will notice a huge difference that could validate both the theory of people who think it will cease to exist and people who think it will skyrocket. But there are not intermediate options in this story.

Really, I think you can't tell how it will all turn out. I will certainly feel foolish if any of the cryptos turn out to be a good thing.... But I have, at present, a level of disbelief in the fundamental ideas behind them, and this also leads me to think that the huge price advances will not hold up.

But if I knew all that much, probably I'd already be rich.

Bob.

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  #153 (permalink)
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bobwest View Post
Really, I think you can't tell how it will all turn out. I will certainly feel foolish if any of the cryptos turn out to be a good thing.... But I have, at present, a level of disbelief in the fundamental ideas behind them, and this also leads me to think that the huge price advances will not hold up.

But if I knew all that much, probably I'd already be rich.

Bob.

I totally agree with you that it's not possible to tell how it will end. And I respect your opinion. I'm also not saying it wil skyrocket and I'm not biased on any possible outcome, simply I'm not able to.

What I say is that speaking of BTC value in dollars trying to give it a fair one is simply a non sense.

If this currency will have a future it needs to be mined and miners to be paid and as difficulty increase it can only value more to give a reward to miners or improve in technology.

If this currency has no future or can't hold this pace, it will value 0, because that what a currency that could not be transfered is worth.

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  #154 (permalink)
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I am not happy about always appearing to take the negative side in any discussion on bitcoin or the other cryptos. I don't know enough about the future to really be able to say how it will all turn out (as if anyone does, or can.)

But this kind of story alarms and distresses me:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/bitcoin-is-my-potential-pension-...y&utm_term=.78b9824a2bdb

"Bitcoin is my potential pension" tears at me.

I recall vividly the "dot com" bubble of the 1990's. Many people on this forum were not alive then and don't know what this refers to, but never mind -- the lessons are the same. I remember a guy whose job was to make sure that customer orders were captured by our company's then pre-internet-enabled tracking system. He worked hard at it. He didn't have a lavish salary. He told me about how his 401(k) was going to hit a million dollars by the end of the year, and he would retire rich.

Well, it didn't, and I don't think he did, either.

The cruelty of these market bubbles is that people hope that they will pull them up out of their financial problems, and they don't. You can sometimes tell it's a bubble when these hopes start to surface.

I do hope I'm wrong.

Bob.

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  #155 (permalink)
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bobwest View Post

I recall vividly the "dot com" bubble of the 1990's.

I recall it as well. But I think there is a major difference in my opinion.

The Dot Com was institutionalized because it was stock trading.
There were IRA, 401K, etc. and the major brokerages were selling it to their clients as individual trade execution and/or via mutual funds, etc.

My impression is that the average investment in Crypto is very small as compared to what people have placed in the DOT COM era. I base it on two major factors: 1) The decision of major banks not to allow crypto purchases by credit cards 2) I estimated the world cap of cryptocurrency and number of players by exchanges.

I am sure there are some major players but stats of large numbers cant lie that much. All I am saying that if this entire thing implodes tomorrow under the current structure, in my opinion, it will not have an economic impact that the NASDAQ had.

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  #156 (permalink)
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Let's wait and see what happens if BTC drops below the 5000 level...

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  #157 (permalink)
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mattz View Post
All I am saying that if this entire thing implodes tomorrow under the current structure, in my opinion, it will not have an economic impact that the NASDAQ had.

I expect you're right about this. But it's going to shock and probably hurt a lot of people, if it does crash.

Bob.

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  #158 (permalink)
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bobwest View Post
I expect you're right about this. But it's going to shock and probably hurt a lot of people, if it does crash.

Bob.

I think it already did. Not to mention the pain that these awful ICOs did.

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  #159 (permalink)
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One of things that hit me from the Post article, was how 'Melin' talks about many of the struggles in life, and the implication that crypto's could help fix that. The concerning thing is, if this does get ugly and go to zero, the people who will get hurt the most will probably be the people who can least afford to lose. As you said "Bitcoin is my potential pension tears at me".

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  #160 (permalink)
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