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Bitcoin Futures by the CME
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Bitcoin Futures by the CME

  #1 (permalink)
North Carolina
 
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Bitcoin Futures by the CME

Following Mattz's advice, CME has announced Bitcoin futures. I hope they keep they make it a very granular, small contract, for small traders. $1 per point would be suitable, I think. It needs reduced fees too, I think though. This will also be interesting because it may allow for BTC holders the ability to arbitrage the BTC cash with the futures product.

CF Bitcoin Real Time Index and Spot Price

The other futures market I know of, is not CFTC regulated, BITMEX, is run by a very bright guy, Arthur Hayes. Some of his arb strategies might be suitable for this product, as well. One of the products BITMEX offers is a perpetual swap. It has the advantage of tracking the spot price: this might be another consideration. There is also Bitfinex which is larger.


Last edited by tpredictor; October 31st, 2017 at 02:07 PM.
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  #2 (permalink)
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CME Group Announces Launch of Bitcoin Futures

fyi:

CME Group Announces Launch of Bitcoin Futures

CHICAGO, Oct. 31, 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- CME Group (CME), the world's leading and most diverse derivatives marketplace, today announced it intends to launch bitcoin futures in the fourth quarter of 2017, pending all relevant regulatory review periods.

The new contract will be cash-settled, based on the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate (BRR) which serves as a once-a-day reference rate of the U.S. dollar price of bitcoin. Bitcoin futures will be listed on and subject to the rules of CME.
...

More information:
CF Bitcoin Real Time Index and Spot Price

@mattz : Done.

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  #3 (permalink)
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Excellent. Now I'll have an easy way to short it when the crash happens. Assuming the regulators approve it that is.

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  #4 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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tpredictor View Post
There is also Bitfinex which is larger.

Can you PLEASE stop pushing these unregulated OTC entities that have ZERO regulatory oversight?
https://medium.com/@bitfinexed/wash-trading-bitcoin-how-bitfinex-benefits-from-fraudulent-trading-8bd66be73215
https://medium.com/@bitfinexed/fake-it-till-you-make-it-when-bitfinex-themselves...re-orderbook-18294585338

Matt Z
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PM with any questions about optimusfutures (800) 771-6748 (561) 367 8686. THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES TRADING.
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  #5 (permalink)
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choke35 View Post
fyi:

CME Group Announces Launch of Bitcoin Futures

CHICAGO, Oct. 31, 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- CME Group (CME), the world's leading and most diverse derivatives marketplace, today announced it intends to launch bitcoin futures in the fourth quarter of 2017, pending all relevant regulatory review periods.

The new contract will be cash-settled, based on the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate (BRR) which serves as a once-a-day reference rate of the U.S. dollar price of bitcoin. Bitcoin futures will be listed on and subject to the rules of CME.
...

More information:
CF Bitcoin Real Time Index and Spot Price

@mattz : Done.

nice ....guess Santa is coming sometime in the 4th Qtr

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  #6 (permalink)
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paps View Post
nice ....guess Santa is coming sometime in the 4th Qtr

I heard the distribution of gifts will be done via a Blockchain. No more chimnies.

MattZ
Optimus Futures

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PM with any questions about optimusfutures (800) 771-6748 (561) 367 8686. THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES TRADING.
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  #7 (permalink)
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@mattz I am not pushing anything. I only mentioned Bitfinex because it was mentioned in the white paper that describes how the CME futures price will be calculated. The exact exchanges used can change over time according to the white paper. I only mentioned Bitmex because Arthur comes across as a really bright guy in Youtube videos I have seen. In order to be 100% clear, I do not work for any broker, have no affiliate marketing or other financial interest, and have no interest in any broker whatsoever. I also do not and have never recommended any BTC trading product, exchange, or the like whatsoever.

However, I do think Arthur's perpetual swap idea is interesting but do not fully understand it. It sounds like it is more of a vehicle for shorting then for going long from what I understand. However, it would be nice if there were a futures-like product that didn't have the inherent pricing problems that futures have. When I mentioned it, I was thinking that it is unlikely there would be any interest for expiry beyond the front month given how difficult BTC is to price/predict.

What I imagine the futures product could be used for would be for large BTC holders, they will be able to keep their BTC in cold storage and will be able to use the futures to hedge some of the price risk without exposing their actual BTC. However, I'm still not sure how this will work without some sort of options hedging or other mechanism.

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/files/bitcoin-white-paper.pdf


Last edited by tpredictor; October 31st, 2017 at 06:08 PM.
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  #8 (permalink)
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Will it burst now?

Will the help the bubble or not?

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  #9 (permalink)
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@RandBots Shorting BTC for anything other then a short term trade would most-likely be a huge mistake. It is mostly owned and controlled by a few rich people and it is programmed to become more scarce. All they have to do is maintain current prices over time before most of the talking heads and pundits will start to say that BTC is more or less fairly valued. Every day that BTC doesn't collapse then you have more history where it has maintained value.

This will most likely have the effect of bringing in more big money. The big money is not invested. They will want to invest just 1% or 2% likely as a hedge or for uncorrelated returns. That would push a huge amount of money into BTC. Even if BTC is a bubble, then it is likely a highly mean reverting one. This means that any collapse is likely to be followed by a serious snapback rally. The drift and structural design means that it is likely to slowly rise over time.

This will bring a lot of more vendors into the ecosystem and gives BTC more legitimacy. There is really zero negative here. It also gives big traders a way to hedge their portfolios, which they will keep in cold storage. I am predicting BTC will rally to 6700-6800 perhaps within 48 hours. There is very little liquidity available above the current highs. Historically, a rally to 7400 would be not be statistically unlikely.

The only "negative" would be if the futures market comes back in a few months and reports they weren't able to get approval but by then BTC could be 50% higher. This has happened I think, not able to get approval, with some other products. So it still must be factored in. The trade now is to figure out if you think the market has appropriately discounted this information in light of the probability of approval or not.


Last edited by tpredictor; October 31st, 2017 at 06:21 PM.
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  #10 (permalink)
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Seeking Alpha : - Andrew Hecht
Two Issues The CFTC And CME Would Be Wise To Consider Before Letting Bitcoin Futures Loose

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4120137-two-issues-cftc-cme-wise-consider-letting-bitcoin-futures-loose

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