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Bitcoin Futures by the CME


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Bitcoin Futures by the CME

  #51 (permalink)
 SpeculatorSeth   is a Vendor
 
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BCH just did a hard fork that changes how the difficulty scales. A lot of the moves over the weekend had to do with miners switching back and forth as one coin became more profitable than the other. We'll have a better view of things when the dust settles. For all we know there will be a flippening before December. And of course this is still assuming the regulators approve it, which I don't think is a done deal.

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  #52 (permalink)
 mistafista 
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the flippening makes my brain do a flippening

guess its best to stay away and watch

but boy ohh boy it will be a very interesting dynamic come 2018 with an emerging industry locking step with an established giant like futures

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  #53 (permalink)
 SpeculatorSeth   is a Vendor
 
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Well I have a hard time just watching, but getting involved in this mess is just too risky. Especially with Bitcoin in particular where there's a real risk of your transactions not getting processed because there's too many transactions. I liked Bitcoin Cash when it went down after the segwit fork was canceled. If I had traded it I would have gotten in there, and taken half off when it doubled. I just have no clue how today is going to turn out though. So I'm just mining Ethereum instead

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  #54 (permalink)
 
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 mattz   is a Vendor
 
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mistafista View Post
with the recent events concerning BTC hard fork cancellation and BCH making insane gains, how does this play into the bitcoin futures?

BTC BCH are separate blockchain so it seems impossible to average a contract for both especially if BCH dominates BTC in mining power


fwiw I wouldnt bother with specific crypto contracts because the space is still too new, theres not even earnings for crying out loud

at the very most have an industry contract like miniSP and see how it plays out for 12mths before adding specific contracts for whatever survivors exist in the space

You are right, this is a new space, and it is yet to be determined who will survive.
I am not going to get too technical here to explain why BCH will not take over Bitcoin or replace it, but I will say that miners jump from one currency to another when it becomes expensive to mine one over another. Since the mining is dominated by a few major players, their decisions affected speculative moves. There are sites like https://www.fork.lol/ that measure this.

At this point, in my opinion, this will not affect CME's decision as far as launching Bitcoin Futures.

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Matt Z
Optimus Futures

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You may lose more than your initial investment. All posts are opinions and do not claim to be facts. Please conduct your own due diligence. Use only Risk capital when trading Futures.
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  #55 (permalink)
interestingstuff
Nirvana
 
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i am still wondering if the futures market can lead the spot market
drawbacks on CME/CBOE, it cant trade on weekends, we know what bitcoin can do on weekends

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  #56 (permalink)
 
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interestingstuff View Post
i am still wondering if the futures market can lead the spot market
drawbacks on CME/CBOE, it cant trade on weekends, we know what bitcoin can do on weekends

Yes, it can. Think of this, Just a rumor of the CME listings gave a boost to the pricing. If there is a heavy volume and demand on the Futures side, it will affect spot by mathematical correlation as well.

As for not trading on the weekend: I guess it is subjective as most appreciate some time that they can dedicate to learning and also relax the mind. also, since this is a new technology, and the news hit it from all directions now, I would recommend not hold any positions over the weekend. clearly, account size, the appetite for risk would dictate how one trades it.

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Matt Z
Optimus Futures

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You may lose more than your initial investment. All posts are opinions and do not claim to be facts. Please conduct your own due diligence. Use only Risk capital when trading Futures.
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  #57 (permalink)
 
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 Neo1 
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$25 per contact? sounds like you will need a dedicated 100k + account.

When is the Bmini launching?

"Free markets work because they allow people to be lucky, thanks to aggressive trial and error, not by giving rewards or incentives for skill. The strategy is, then, to tinker as much as possible and try to collect as many Black Swan opportunities as you can"
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  #58 (permalink)
 
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 SMCJB 
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mattz View Post
Found this rather interesting

"If the Chicago Mercantile Exchange or any other clearing organization clears a cryptocurrency together with other products, then a large cryptocurrency price move that destabilizes members that clear cryptocurrencies will destabilize the clearing organization itself and its ability to satisfy its fundamental obligation to pay the winners and collect from the losers on the other products in the same clearing pool."

Interactive Brokers chairman warns about dangers of bitcoin futures - Business Insider

Matt Z
OptimusFutures.com

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. past performance is not indicative of future results.

Thanks Matt. I saw a similar story. I don't understand his logic. If margined correctly there should be little to no risk to other clearing members, or customers.

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  #59 (permalink)
interestingstuff
Nirvana
 
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i think the cboe bitcoin contract looks most promising
i would assume they will structure their contract with no limits
also smaller notional size with easier arb between the gemini exchange

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  #60 (permalink)
 
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 suko 
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That obtuse talking head girl in the CNBC interview skirted around or did not understand Peterffy's point. Damn I hate the MSM.

He wants a ring fence around the Bitcoin futures clearing. I don't see why this would be a big problem.

Incidentally he has recently ruffled some feathers by raising the IB margin on vol products to the point where vol traders are going elsewhere.

Risk management.

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