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Right now, it looks like prices are melting up due to upcoming SegWit 2x event. My very basic forecast suggest 50% appreciation capability near term (not exactly a prediction but more of a possibility I keep in mind). One possible strategy would be to place a portion in BTC/USD with leverage and sell before the event and to place a smaller portion in an offline wallet. Because of possible hard fork event, institutional investors will be forced to buy and hold through the event. One can anticipate a rapid appreciation before the event with subsequent sell off or range bound action after the event.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
While I do not believe in Bitcoin per say, I think it is a good time to be holding it because of the following:
1. SegWit 2x. If you don't hold it before you won't get it. It is likely that either B1 or B2 will be the dominant coin. If you're an investor, you have to be holding before this event. You cannot sell. You must be invested.
2. SegWit 2x Failure. If Segwit 2x doesn't materialize, then provided that a consensus is reached for increasing network processing speed then it is still a very bullish event. More processing speed equals more networking effect.
The basic thesis is that this is a bullish event. The best way to play this might be the following:
1. Buy a leveraged position in BTC and sell shortly before the event. Play the build up.
2. Hold a smaller position in wallet for the long term play.
3. Buy volatility in stocks that might be impacted like AMD and NVDA.
Something to consider, there is enough money behind BTC now that one should watch for all the arguments against BTC to fall away. Examples:
1. BTC is broken/too slow. This is a software update. Watch for rapid appreciation as "old truths" no longer apply.
2. Nothing backing BTC and ability to clone BTC ad infinitium. A consortium of investors could come out and back it. Even with 500 million dollars then those conditions no longer apply.
Etc...
Something very interesting happening in micro-time on GDAX now. Check out the 1 minute chart. Service was down for a few minutes. So, we had several prints with no volume then a massive spike down and immediate recovery for the moment.
Not a strategy but I notice a bot (assuming its a bot) will often buy in appx 1 cent when the market declines. I'm suspicious it is market maker or liquidity provider. Self trading isn't supposed to be allowed. Of course, it might be some sort of dollar averaging algo. But, esp notice it when market trades with a tight spread. It could be some sort of order splitting algo but looks like a bot to make the flow look more two sided. It might be for safety -- make sure the market hasn't jumped or something. My suspect was it was a market maker though.
If your curious about huge sell off after seeming positive announcement regarding fork, here's the deal-- some investors who were diversified crypto probably loaded BTC before fork to capture alt coin. Without split, there is no reason for them to be loaded into single coin. However, I think this is bullish. I think that it is more likely there will be one or two cryptos only and BTC is likely to be one of them. Basically we are seeing the "post fork" behavior right now.
If hypothesis regarding rotation out of BTC after fork is correct, look for breakouts in other alt coins now...
We might see the BTC market change from a momentum to a more mean reverting market with new futures participants. It probably won't take place overnight but it is something I'm keeping in mind. I think it would take months if it even happens. It is just something I'm keeping in mind at this point as a possibility.
