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A Bitcoin Believerís Crisis of Faith
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A Bitcoin Believerís Crisis of Faith

  #81 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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suko View Post
True believer Raoul Pal has had a change of mind about Bitcoin:

......


Very interesting what he has to say about cryptocurrency in India.

Nice video, however, keep in mind a few things:

1) Exponential price moves do not always need to correct. Look at the price of diamonds.
2) Blockchains are in public domain already and it will not 5 years to make it to main st.
3) Pitchforks are meant for better scalability and avoid theft. It is not meant to break the algorithmic structure.

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  #82 (permalink)
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suko View Post
True believer Raoul Pal has had a change of mind about Bitcoin:




Very interesting what he has to say about cryptocurrency in India.

Yes very interesting. Thanks @suko.

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  #83 (permalink)
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Actually, I don't know where Raoul Pal is getting his info about India.

I had heard that there are some apps being used with cryptos for payments, true.

But if you look at the headlines for India it seems there is a lot of confusion at the regulatory level still.

It's not a situation like Japan where they've got approval from the top and clear legislation.

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  #84 (permalink)
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suko View Post
Actually, I don't know where Raoul Pal is getting his info about India.

I had heard that there are some apps being used with cryptos for payments, true.

But if you look at the headlines for India it seems there is a lot of confusion at the regulatory level still.

It's not a situation like Japan where they've got approval from the top and clear legislation.

Here is Raoul Pal talking about India - scroll half way down the page.

Raoul Pal, Paying Attention | Outside the Box Investment Newsletter | Mauldin Economics


India

By Raoul Pal
March 2017


Last edited by WOW CO; June 11th, 2017 at 11:27 AM. Reason: typo
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  #85 (permalink)
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Holy smokes! Thanks for drilling down and finding that.

a MUST READ

To contradict what I said about Japan. You'd think the Japanese would have been able to roll something out vast and sweeping like this. But petty local politics etc. has bogged down even rolling out of a simple citizen ID number.

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Listening to that interview again, it reminds me of what Brad Rotter said three years ago on the Covel podcast, that yes Bitcoin may go to a million dollars but the real play is picks n' shovels.

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Thanks @WOW CO
Excellent Read.

For anybody with Real Vision subscription they have a new interesting 30 min bitcoin video today.
Monday: Of Bitcoin And Bubbles
Tuur Demeester // Editor-in-Chief // Adamant Research
In five years, are you going to be thanking yourself for buying Bitcoin, or kicking yourself? Tuur Demeester examines how far cryptocurrencies have come in the past eight years, questioning whether we are in a bubble or state of viral adoption in the sector, while also providing some essential analysis on the current scaling debate in Bitcoin. Click to watch now.

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What's ironic is that Bitcoin was created to try to prevent control but like most technologies, it probably has led to a hastening of digital currencies with greater control and less anonymity.

I think a few things are clear now in my mind:

1. The technology of digital currencies and other innovations, such as programmed contracts (I imagine engineering optimal trading markets/products for traders-- see my other thread). This is going to get rid of a lot of middle man and it's going to provide safety to the financial system because it's going to decrease the role for banks to play in financial markets. Why should there be a central authority charging a fee for every trade when we have fast and cheap computing resources today and when no money actually needs to be exchanged even for a trade? Also, it is time to get real: small traders aren't out there providing tangible liquidity. We're not facilitating markets. For a trader, the markets serve one purpose: prove your relative advantage over other traders and take home a profit. There's no need or reason to take black swan risk. No need for trading frictions either. In fact, there is no need to trade real markets at all. Yes, perhaps for large traders but small traders (sub 1 million) probably not. An engineered market can provide a better trading experience and even if one wants to trade actual markets, one can imagine idealized trading products with zero frictions and limited risk.

Also, there is a need for friction-less micro-payments. The change is basically a process of automation and elimination of middle-men, as well as traditional frictions.

2. Bitcoin paved the way but has basically failed. I was reading over 50% of accounts have tiny amounts of bitcoin that can't even be collated. The mining is wasting tons of real resources. Micropayments are difficult to get processed. The network isn't scaling. By 2027 most of the coin will be mined meaning that the only way to obtain it will be to exchange it which negates a lot of value because once you limit it to traditional exchange then it becomes fully subject to regulation.

3. Bitcoin is not going away anytime soon and can go a lot higher still yet.

What I see happening is that over the next 10 years, we're going to see some of these advantages. You'll see programming contracts take over financial contracts. There will be a lot of problems. Bitcoin will continue to be volatile but will likely continue to rise. Eventually, there will be a big fall out. However, the technologies that come from this will pave the way for "finance 2.0".

Just hypothesizing here...
This change will lead to a shift away from big finance centers toward technology hubs. New York, Chicago, London-- the old guard will likely fall or become even more marginalized. Technology hubs like Silicon Valley, Seattle, Denver, etc. will benefit. The regulated exchanges will have to adapt or eventually in 20 years or so: they could go the same away as the open outcry pits. Also, it could be the trigger for the next financial crisis because it would represent a major shifting of capital.


Last edited by tpredictor; September 13th, 2017 at 08:20 PM.
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CME Group Announces Launch of Bitcoin Futures

CME Group Announces Launch of Bitcoin Futures

Tue October 31, 2017 9:30 AM|PR Newswire
PR Newswire

CHICAGO, Oct. 31, 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- CME Group (CME), the world's leading and most diverse derivatives marketplace, today announced it intends to launch bitcoin futures in the fourth quarter of 2017, pending all relevant regulatory review periods.

The new contract will be cash-settled, based on the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate (BRR) which serves as a once-a-day reference rate of the U.S. dollar price of bitcoin. Bitcoin futures will be listed on and subject to the rules of CME.
...

More information:
CF Bitcoin Real Time Index and Spot Price

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I hope they make the multiplier small for small traders.

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