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A Bitcoin Believerís Crisis of Faith
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A Bitcoin Believerís Crisis of Faith

  #61 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
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I have always had a curiosity for bitcoin from a technological point of view but don't see it being used for anything but black market trading.

Does anyone know why the price of bitcoin is currently skyrocketing? It has surpassed $1700.

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  #62 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Nobody knows anything.

But it is claimed that 95% of the bid comes from China, so...

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  #63 (permalink)
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Litecoin went up from $5 to $36 in the last 6 weeks way outperforming BTC due to the Segwit implementation...

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  #64 (permalink)
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But how can it be a viable currency when it moves 100% in a week?

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  #65 (permalink)
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Either china is buying up huge amounts of crypto currency or the bitcoin market is not very liquid to move such huge amounts..

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  #66 (permalink)
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I wouldn't be surprised to see BTC exceed 10k

"Free markets work because they allow people to be lucky, thanks to aggressive trial and error, not by giving rewards or incentives for skill. The strategy is, then, to tinker as much as possible and try to collect as many Black Swan opportunities as you can"
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  #67 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Some believe it will go to 1 million.

I say it will go up and down with a lot of volatility that makes it unsuitable for a currency for quite some time.

The altcoins even worse. If you like trading pump and dumps that is the market.

New better altcoins will continue to be created, just like designer drugs.

Might be an interesting speculation to just buy some 1000s of every new altcoin as it emerges on the board. One out of twenty or so of those will go supernova like ETH.

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  #68 (permalink)
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Neo1 View Post
I wouldn't be surprised to see BTC exceed 10k


suko View Post
Some believe it will go to 1 million.

Doesn't that make it a Ponzi scheme rather than a viable currency? Anybody out there predicting USDEUR will go to 2 never mind 10?

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  #69 (permalink)
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BTC (and other forms of payment like credit cards) are known to benefit by what is called the network effect. This is the idea that once a certain competitor gains enough market share that they have a monopoly. A similar model is the marketplace model, firms like ebay/amazon/etc attempt to become the market place, once they have established themselves as the de facto market place then the volume attracts more volume so to speak so no one can compete with them. If you were to try to innovate, they could copy your innovation faster than it could reach adoption. And, that might be one problem for bitcoin in that it seems to be somewhat static-- if its not adaptable then having market place status might not give it monopoly advantage.

No BTC is not a ponzi scheme because there is no promised or even implied rate of return. A Ponzi scheme is a scheme that guarantees or promises an unrealistic rate of return and uses new investor money to pay prior debts. However, BTC could be in a speculative bubble and is host to a subject of wide ranging and array of poorly understood risks. BTC is not a currency either because currencies are backed by governments. BTC is best thought of as a digital asset, good, or service. Long term valuation will be a function of how useful it is, how much it is perceived to be worth (speculators), and competitive responses. The biggest threat too BTC is the question of adaptability and rigidity. Those betting on BTC are betting that it will obtain synergistic network benefits and monopoly status but the risk is that it can't be respond to market changes because of possible rigid implementation and decentralization.

One way to track the fair value of bitcoin would be to create a metric that ranks the adoption growth for actual purchases/goods versus its increase in value. By plotting the adoption rate versus growth in value rate, you can create some measure of whether or not bitcoin appreciation is warranted. A simpler measure would be to track the trading volume in relation to the asset appreciation. If BTC is appreciating much faster than volume is increasing then that would suggest that it is being hoarded and might suggest overvaluation. Another very useful measure would be the amount that is being exchanged out vs in. These measures could be used to forecast future price.


Last edited by tpredictor; May 12th, 2017 at 12:47 AM.
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  #70 (permalink)
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SMCJB View Post
Doesn't that make it a Ponzi scheme rather than a viable currency? Anybody out there predicting USDEUR will go to 2 never mind 10?

I use BTC all the time for international money transfers and it works great for that. However, you must get in and out as fast as possible due to volatility.

Vast numbers of poor migrant workers abroad are now using it instead of Western Union for transfer payments.

I think it may also be in use in the appification of money in India going on right now.

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