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Bitcoin vs Gold
Updated: Views / Replies:1,674 / 22
Created: by Big Mike Attachments:2

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Bitcoin vs Gold

  #21 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Batavia NY
 
Trading Experience: Advanced
Platform: TWS, Python, R
Favorite Futures: Common stock, ETFs, YM, options
 
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What is interesting to me is that you see with bitcoin the reason that a currency needs inflation.

Once everyone believes the value of the currency will be worth much more tomorrow than today it stops functioning as a currency because everyone just starts hording it and not using it as a medium of exchange.

Bitcoin as digital gold is just the new narrative the crypto community came up with when it failed as a currency because of hording.

Crypto at this point is just a bucket shop in the clouds.

In that sense I think a pure trading game divorced completely from reality is actually really cool.

A pure trading game might be something the world needs or at the least really wants.

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  #22 (permalink)
SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
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centaurer View Post
What is interesting to me is that you see with bitcoin the reason that a currency needs inflation.

Once everyone believes the value of the currency will be worth much more tomorrow than today it stops functioning as a currency because everyone just starts hording it and not using it as a medium of exchange.

That's exactly what I believe happens, but I think we can go into a bit more detail than that. What really gives the asset value is your ability to transfer it to other people. The more people that use the currency, the more valuable it is to you because you can use it more places. If nobody is actually using it then the ultimate utility of the coin goes down.

The truth is that hodl is just a meme. When you look at the Mt Gox crash almost everyone got washed out of the market. I expect the same will happen this time around as well. As soon as people realize that the number of transactions in the near future will be less than the number of transactions today, there is no reason to hold the asset. So they all bail.

A fiat system has the Federal Reserve to modify the money supply to create inflation so that this doesn't happen. When things fall apart they make money easy to borrow to increase the amount of transactions. It creates a reason to buy before complete collapse. Bitcoin is essentially the opposite. Instead of becoming a safe haven it is a risk asset, and that makes the tops and bottoms exaggerated.

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  #23 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Batavia NY
 
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TWDsje View Post
That's exactly what I believe happens, but I think we can go into a bit more detail than that. What really gives the asset value is your ability to transfer it to other people. The more people that use the currency, the more valuable it is to you because you can use it more places. If nobody is actually using it then the ultimate utility of the coin goes down.
.


Oh for sure but I also think the bull run is hugely to blame for the lowering of velocity.
This guy did some velocity analysis
https://medium.com/@Nodar/q3-2018-bitcoin-velocity-analysis-d414709055

It is just not shocking at all you would have lower velocity when the price 10 bags.

For me personally I am interested in buying bitcoin under $300 but even that might be high. $200 is probably the point I actually start buying. I will be interested though as a deep OTM call option on the infrastructure.

I mean I was interested at $300 not that long ago and the only thing that has changed is less people are actually using it as a currency and there is a massive increase in supply. I need to get pennies on the dollar though to be interested. Young men have a collective urge to speculate and make their fortune quick. I think there was so much pent up speculative demand from young people mostly picking index funds post financial crisis that crypto still reflects this speculative premium. The dream is still alive.

I actually did buy some GLD last Christmas when bitcoin was the family dinner conversation. It seemed obvious to me when the shoe shine boy is talking about digital gold I should buy the real thing.

The least shocking thing in the world right now will be bitcoin volatility drying up until the next dump. I am impressed with the way people are able to hold and ride down this most orderly of liquidation.

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