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In Bitcoin We Trust
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In Bitcoin We Trust

  #31 (permalink)
Elite Member
Portland, OR
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Favorite Futures: Bitcoin
 
Posts: 57 since May 2013
Thanks: 30 given, 41 received

Speculation and perspective in Bitcoin


liquidcci View Post
I think the whole concept of bitcoin is intriguing. But just like anything illiquid. Why would I risk trading it? It jumps around more like a penny stock.

Well, my motivation for trading it, is Bitcoin itself. I love the concept and was instantly fixated. This journal is an attempt to combine my two passions right now, trading and Bitcoin.

The reward is certainly there, and I personally believe in the fundamental foundation moreso than any penny stock, but that is speculative. The downside risk is measurable and volatile yes, but the upside potential is unfathomable from my perspective.

I aim to use my skills in trading to skip out in the speculative crashes, you'll notice my time frame is fairly high and I focus on context, as I am very aware of the manipulation that can occur. My goal with this experiment isn't to increase my USD valuation exactly but to accumulate more BTC, the only way to do that is to have fiat on hand after each crash.

I will remind you though that I only allocate a portion of my capital to this experiment, and it has already paid for itself. I do not rely on my BTC to pay my rent as yes, the volatility is one of the main issues of becoming more of a currency and less a speculative vehicle. We should see the volatility decrease with a higher market cap, and hopefully be adopted by more merchants.

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  #32 (permalink)
Elite Member
Portland, OR
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
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Posts: 57 since May 2013
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Downtrend

Entering into bear channel coming out of the weekend, im still flat.
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Proceeding with caution, we could see 75s in the next day or two.
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Last edited by Arkiteq; May 6th, 2013 at 09:46 PM.
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  #33 (permalink)
Elite Member
Portland, OR
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
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Favorite Futures: Bitcoin
 
Posts: 57 since May 2013
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VP


For the volume profile fans out there, here is a shitty formatted profile since the run up at the end of March. Haven't had time to play with my Sierra settings much, i'll make all my charts cleaner....sometime.

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I'll try and post some footprints of some of the sell-offs later, and blow your mind how much easier it is to spot walls than other instruments.

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  #34 (permalink)
Elite Member
Portland, OR
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
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Favorite Futures: Bitcoin
 
Posts: 57 since May 2013
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Avalon chips

I spent some time looking into having my own ASIC rig built, mostly for novelty. No way was I going to pay the 10x resale prices . My plan was to buy into one of the group buys for a Avalon chip lot , some dude in Germany will assemble these for 100 EUR in 20pc array.

After comparing some Avalon lot #s I came to the conclusion that there are probably some 400 10k lots of these chips ahead of me, and 10s of thousands of backorders starting to get filled at BFL and Avalon. It definitely appears that the hash rate will tenfold or more by the time I would be able to plug anything in, reducing the margins too much for me to bother.

tldr; don't get into Asic hardware

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  #35 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Futures Experience: Beginner
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Sideways

Ranging for now, likely to break lower later today. Still flat.

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  #36 (permalink)
Elite Member
Portland, OR
 
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Posts: 57 since May 2013
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Bitcoin GitHub History Visualized

A visualization of Bitcoin being created, pulled it off Reddit, thought it was pretty cool. Price is still ranging between 100-110, im not interested in taking a trade until it breaks.


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  #37 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Buy 112.50

Long at 112.50. Appears to have developed a new bullish channel & broke out of range.

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Not super confident in this one, hopefully it'll be more apparent before I go to gym in a couple hours.


Last edited by Arkiteq; May 7th, 2013 at 09:38 PM.
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  #38 (permalink)
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It didn't do what I was hoping last night, I sold my long at entry @ 112.50. I set a price alert on my phone for 115 to see if it could make it through that wall on the second test, the damn thing didn't go off, going to look into fixing that.

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This is the chart that is causing me to be sketched out on longs at this level, a large wedge developing.
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If for some reason we clear 115 area convincingly, I might get back in. Otherwise, see you at 80!

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  #39 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
New York City NY
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
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This is an awesome thread! Keep it going, love the insight into your process.

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  #40 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
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I ahve just found this thread, I am another Bitcoin fascinado. That doesn't mean I don't criticize it or I don't think it will have a spectacular blowup, nevertheless the volatility and technology and mystery are fascinating. In the maintime, it is an excellent trading vehicle...

There is going to be a new US "forex for bitcoin" site, currently in beta testing. kraken.com You can play there with fake money, I have been testing it in the last few days. Finally they got the quote fixed so it plays the MtGox data feed.

If you don't mind I will share here my strategies and trading here. If you do mind just let me know. Currently I am selling above 120 and buying below 95. The account starts out with 5K cash and 100 BTCs....

In the morning I put on a bunch of orders, and of course volatility slowed down right away...

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